9 players exceeding expectations in 2024

A year ago this week, we set out to determine, objectively, who was most exceeding expectations in Major League Baseball. What we ended up with then was an odd mix of precocious youngsters, resurgent veterans and the NL Cy Young Award winner.

But a year in baseball may as well be an eternity, so we're back again to compare players against their 2024 ZiPS projections. For the uninitiated, ZiPS, generally considered one of the most accurate projection models for Major Leaguers, is the system created by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski based primarily on recent performance and aging curves.

All that being said, here's a look at nine players who are significantly outperforming their 2024 preseason projections in terms of FanGraphs' wins above replacement (fWAR) and, perhaps more importantly, how they're doing it.

All stats are through Sunday's games.

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals
Projected: 4.3 fWAR, .804 OPS
Actual: 9.0 fWAR, 1.007 OPS

Witt overshot his projected fWAR by two wins in 2023 -- which is why he's making this list for the second straight season -- but he actually had a negative run value on pitches in the heart of the zone, because while his expected batting average against those middle-middle pitches was .342, his BABIP was almost 100 points lower (.249.)

The only tried and true method for overcoming bad luck is to wait it out, but if you really want a ball to land, you might try hitting it through people. Witt's average exit velocity against middle-middle pitches is now 98.7 mph, firmly in the territory occupied only by the biggest of boppers, trailing Shohei Ohtani (100.9 mph), Aaron Judge (100.5 mph) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (99.7 mph) among players with at least 150 batted balls. The result, among other things, has been his absurd .611 slugging percentage.

Jurickson Profar, OF, Padres
Projected: 0.2 fWAR, .684 OPS
Actual: 3.8 fWAR, .864 OPS

Profar's is one of the latest blooms we've seen in recent memory, and given that there was no indication it was coming, there was no projecting it. The thing is, he's been swinging at the right pitches all along -- he's ranked in the 70th percentile or higher in both chase and whiff rate every year since 2021. But swinging at the right pitch is one thing, and making good contact against it is another. Speaking of which, Profar's current average exit velocity is 90.7 mph, an enormous improvement from his career average of 87.3 mph.

Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies
Projected: 1.4 fWAR, .736 OPS
Actual: 3.9 fWAR, .815 OPS

Year over year, Bohm keeps getting better. He's become one of the best in baseball at avoiding strikeouts, and what's more, with the introduction of bat speed metrics, we have a more specific grasp on his strength as a hitter (i.e., his 33.6% squared-up rate is the 10th-highest among qualifying hitters.) Funnily enough, he did well in 2023 despite generating no run value against four-seam fastballs; he hit just .246 against them, compared to a league average of .259. That was somewhat of a concern, because he hasn't always been a good fastball hitter -- in his tough 2021 season, he hit .174 with a 33.1% strikeout rate against four-seamers. It's safe to say he's worked out those issues again: He's currently hitting .306 with a +12 run value (T-8th in MLB) against them.

Brent Rooker, DH, Athletics
Projected: 1.6 fWAR, .787 OPS
Actual: 3.8 fWAR, .931 OPS

Admittedly, we're picking on ZiPS a little bit here. For players between 24 and 38 years old, the model looks at their last four seasons. And in his last four seasons, Rooker was at various points the Twins' No. 12 prospect (2020-21), a spare outfielder DFA'd by the Royals ('22) and a first-time All-Star with the A's ('23.) His 30 home runs in 2023 were impressive, but Rooker also had one of the distinctive characteristics of a one-and-done phenomenon -- he punished fastballs (.632 SLG) but nothing else (.294 vs. breaking and offspeed pitches.) With those numbers, people naturally start to wonder if you can hit a slider. As it turns out, he can -- Rooker's slugging percentage against breaking balls this season has pulled even with that against fastballs, and, through 114 games, he's already become one of those players with two 30-homer seasons.

Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
Projected: 4.8 fWAR, .816 OPS
Actual: 6.7 fWAR, .914 OPS

Another example of best-case-scenario player development, ZiPS did expect Henderson to improve in 2024, just not quite like this. He'd made it quite clear during the course of 2023 that he had superstar potential, so the only real surprise here is how quickly he made good on it. If there was an area of concern last year, it was his .237 batting average against breaking balls -- this year, he has that number up to .312. In fact, his putaway rate on breaking pitches is down over five points and he's hit 17 of his 33 home runs against them. He's become a legitimately tough out as he chases less and at this point has to be considered the inarguable centerpiece of the Orioles lineup, having already surpassed his '23 totals in home runs, runs scored and stolen bases.

Luis García Jr., 2B, Nationals
Projected: 1.3 fWAR, .716 OPS
Actual: 3.0 fWAR, .785 OPS

García played in parts of three seasons before he got the opportunity to start at second base on a nearly full-time basis in 2023. He got the job done, but other than pure contact ability, it was nothing to write home about. That's probably why ZiPS nailed him on walks and strikeouts (he doesn't have many of either) but not so much on overall production, because, as it turns out, he can hit. Through Sunday, he leads qualifying Nationals with a .293 average, having revealed a real talent for squaring up incoming pitches, which has also allowed him to pile up 15 home runs even as a relatively light-hitting middle infielder. He's also done a fine job at second, and for his already-speedy club, he's added 20 stolen bases to their MLB-leading total of 178.

Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, Phillies
Projected: 1.9 fWAR, 4.36 ERA
Actual: 4.1 fWAR, 3.51 ERA

We didn't have much of a reference point on Sánchez before this season, although he did make 18 starts for the Phillies in 2023. What his projected results couldn't have anticipated was just how good his changeup has gotten. Already his best pitch, hitters in 2024 have a 45.5% chase rate against it (Sánchez, on the whole, ranks in the 99th percentile of qualifying pitchers with a 36.5% overall chase rate.) When hitters are making contact against him, they're mostly killing worms (his 59.9% ground ball rate ranks in the 96th percentile.) Even with all of that in mind, it's astounding that in 237 plate appearances ending on changeups, Sánchez has allowed five extra-base hits -- all doubles -- and accumulated 75 strikeouts. Relying so heavily on one putaway pitch isn't always a long-term strategy, but for now, it's clearly working.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Dodgers
Projected: 1.2 fWAR, 4.54 ERA
Actual: 2.9 fWAR, 3.00 ERA

Although he hadn't had a full Major League season since 2019, because he got through 2023 with 144 1/3 innings pitched, Flaherty was subsequently projected for 127 in 2024. That was about where the good news stopped, because ZiPS had him pitching to a 4.54 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts per nine (which would have been his lowest in any season of 100+ innings) and a BB/9 of almost 4.

That's how it started. Here's how it's going: Flaherty's already surpassed that innings total (129 IP through Sunday), he has 162 strikeouts (or 11.3 K/9) and a career-low 1.7 BB/9. He has, for all intents and purposes, picked up where he left off when injuries derailed his development four years ago.

Erick Fedde, RHP, Cardinals
Projected: 1.4 fWAR, 4.86 ERA
Actual: 2.7 fWAR, 3.39 ERA

In March, Fedde was a former first-round pick with a career 5.41 ERA who had just returned from a successful KBO season (20-6, 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP.) What was going to come of his shot-in-the-dark two-year deal with the White Sox was a complete question mark. He returned to MLB critically having swapped his curveball, against which he allowed a .504 slugging percentage in 2022, for a sweeper (.148 BA, .296 SLG entering Monday), and with a newfound ability to limit his baserunners.

2017-22 vs. 2024
Hard-hit rate: 42.5% -> 36.2%
WHIP: 1.52 -> 1.18
BB/9: 3.8 -> 2.6

Despite ZiPS overshooting his actual K/9 rate, projecting 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings (he's at 7.7), Fedde's proven to be one of the best chances any team took last offseason.