Is Rays’ 'unbelievable' rotation flying under the radar?

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry's Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. -- Zack Littell was scrolling through his phone the other day when he saw a preseason ranking of the best rotations in baseball. There were five teams listed, and the Rays weren’t one of them.

It wasn’t an isolated incident.

The Rays received only a sort of honorable mention from MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince when he ran down the top 10 pitching staffs in baseball. They weren’t on ESPN’s top 10 list in January but did get mentioned as one that could “crack the list.” They’re not in USA Today’s top 10 projected rotations. Not listed among CBS Sports’ top 10 or five honorable mentions, either.

None of that matches up with the excitement the Rays feel about the potential of their starting staff.

“It’s just kind of insane,” Littell said. “I understand the injury concerns [or] in some instances the lack of track record or sample size, I guess. But even so, if you just look at the raw stuff of … every guy, and the five guys collectively, it’s unbelievable.”

There’s been so much focus in Spring Training on how the Rays will fit six starters into five spots, assuming they all break camp healthy, that we perhaps haven’t spent enough time looking at the enormous potential the group possesses, no matter how they’re deployed.

Consider their qualifications.

? Their ace, Opening Day starter Shane McClanahan, is a two-time All-Star who totaled 7.0 bWAR with a 2.85 ERA and 315 strikeouts in 281 1/3 innings over 49 starts from 2022-23. Few left-handed starters throw as hard as him, and few pitchers can match the depth and quality of his four-pitch mix.

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? In 50 Major League starts, Drew Rasmussen has put together a 2.67 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His fastballs clock in in the mid-to-upper 90s, he complements those with a pair of mid-to-upper 80s breaking balls and a low-80s curveball, all of them regularly in the zone. This spring, he’s maintained his velocity and stuff each time he’s added an inning to his workload.

? Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Taj Bradley were all Top 100 prospects as recently as 2022 and ’23. All three averaged around 95-96 mph with their fastballs last season, and they all had at least one secondary pitch with a 30% whiff rate. (Bradley had three.)

Pepiot had an adjusted ERA that was 11% better than league average last year in his first full season in a big league rotation. Baz posted a 131 ERA+ in 14 starts after missing nearly two years due to injuries. Bradley was up and down, but arguably the best starter in baseball for nearly two months last summer, resulting in him being named American League Pitcher of the Month for July.

? Littell often humbly excludes himself from that group of hard throwers with electric stuff. But he put up a team-leading 2.8 WAR year in his first full season as an MLB starter, posted a 110 ERA+ in 156 1/3 innings over 29 starts, has recorded one of the lowest walk rates in baseball over the past two years and features a splitter that produced a 34.4% whiff rate last season.

? And, just for the heck of it, their projected No. 7 starter, Joe Boyle -- who's likely to begin the season in Triple-A -- is regularly throwing 100 mph this spring with a mid-90s splinker, a nasty slider and noticeably improved strike-throwing.

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Sounds pretty good, right?

“I think there are two potential Cy Youngs [in McClanahan and Rasmussen] if they stay healthy. If some other guys pitch it the way that they can, I mean, it's potentially the best starting rotation in baseball,” second baseman Brandon Lowe said. “You look at those six guys, I mean, there's not one person that I would not want to roll out, because I know they're going to be fantastic for us.”

Obviously, there are valid concerns, mostly related to how much the group has pitched previously and how often they’ll take the mound moving forward.

McClanahan is coming back from his second Tommy John surgery. Rasmussen has had three elbow surgeries. Pepiot and Baz have limited track records in the Majors. Bradley has a 4.75 ERA after two seasons. Littell doesn’t have high-octane stuff and, as a starter, came out of nowhere. Boyle has never consistently thrown enough strikes.

With six starters and Boyle waiting in the wings, they have the depth to withstand an injury or two. But they’re all healthy at this point.

While McClanahan figures to have his innings monitored in the early going and Rasmussen will have to be managed more carefully than the others, the rest should be let loose from the jump, capable of pitching six or seven innings the first time through the rotation.

And their talent is undeniable, whether it shows up in preseason rankings or not.

“The stuff is going to be off the charts, which is really cool, and then it's just a little different mix of everything,” Rasmussen said. “You've got Mac, who is a Cy Young contender. You've got Taj and Baz, who will be Cy Young contenders. I mean, Zack knows how to pitch better than anyone else on the staff. Pep, he's got some unbelievable stuff.

“It's a great group of humans. It's a great group of pitchers. I could go on all day about the group we have and how excited I am for what's to come.”