What needs to go right for Rockies in 2024

This story was excerpted from Thomas Harding’s Rockies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- After seeing much go wrong last year, the Rockies had a morsel of good fortune during the final days of camp.

Left fielder Nolan Jones, one of baseball’s top rookies last year, fouled a pitch off his right knee on Saturday and crumpled to the dirt at Surprise Stadium. For a few moments as he struggled to put any weight on his leg, it looked as if the season could begin on a down note.

But when the feeling came back in Jones’ lower leg and the injury turned out to be just a contusion, the hope that the team can stay healthy and begin working its way back from two straight last-place finishes in the National League West and a five-year absence from the postseason returned.

“This time of year, all 30 teams are crossing their fingers on health, and guys overall being in a good spot,” manager Bud Black said. “I think our guys are.”

Only right-handed reliever Daniel Bard (left knee cleanup operation early in camp, right forearm issues from late last season) and lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath (recovery from Tommy John surgery last March) will not be ready for Opening Day.

So, the first baby step to better baseball is simply good fortune. The Rockies have that.

What needs to go right? Health and quality from the starting rotation
Strangely for a Rockies team that lost 103 games last season, run prevention could be a strength -- provided they pitch well, which is far from a given.

But second baseman Brendan Rodgers (2022) and center fielder Brenton Doyle (2023) own Gold Glove Awards with the Rockies, while third baseman Ryan McMahon, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and right fielder Charlie Blackmon have represented the team as finalists. Jones displayed an impact throwing arm last season. Catcher Elias Díaz, last year’s All-Star Game MVP, is a threat against the running game and catching partner Jacob Stallings also owns a Gold Glove (2021 with the Pirates).

While it’s easier said than done, the pitchers can give the Rockies a fighting chance if they merely keep the ball in the strike zone and inside of the park.

The staff is not highly regarded and depth is an issue, but lefty Kyle Freeland and righties Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson have pitched in postseason games and are capable of strong years. However, none of them -- or any of the other potential starters -- is a high-strikeout pitcher. They have to win with defense. And behind them is a group of guys that can pick it.

As Spring Training enters its final days, none of the expected starters sustained an injury. It’s a far cry from last year, when the group was healthy going into the season, but Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela underwent Tommy John surgeries that they’re still recovering from. And Ryan Feltner -- who made this year’s rotation -- sustained a fractured skull last May.

Great unknown: Kris Bryant’s health
When the Rockies signed Bryant for seven years and $182 million, they knew the roster was going to transition to talented younger players. It’s happening in the form of Tovar, Jones and Doyle. But sprinkling in an accomplished player like Bryant was supposed to give the team a fighting chance. Bryant, however, has appeared in just 122 games over the first two seasons of the contract because of injury. The best chance for the Rockies to make progress is for the aforementioned young players and more to make an impact, but to also have Bryant producing in the lineup to lessen pressure on them.

Team MVP will be ... Jones
Jones’ power-speed combination, which he brought after being called up last year in late May, already has made him a player to watch. The key to his performance last year was a solid adjustment to the way opponents pitched him. There will be even more attention to him this year, but if the ability to adjust holds, Jones can continue his ascent to stardom.

Team Cy Young will be ... Freeland
The lefty regained the fastball velocity of his younger years, is putting pitches on either side of the plate and believes he has found the changeup that has eluded him for much of his career.

Bold prediction
McMahon will reach 30 home runs for the first time in his career. Most seasons, he trends in that direction, but a major slump derails him. Last year felt different, though. Did the recurrence of bad swing habits play a role in limiting his final total to 23 home runs? Possibly.

But midseason, it seemed McMahon was finally becoming the power threat the Rockies have long envisioned. By the All-Star break he had 14 homers, but power and average took a downhill turn in the second half. McMahon prides himself on being in the lineup (152 games last year), but by the end, the strength of the swing and the spring in his legs went missing.

McMahon acknowledged this spring that he had a cortisone shot in his right shoulder after the 2023 season, and worked through tendinitis in both knees. If he can stay healthy, or at least have some days off sprinkled in to prevent wear, he just might leave some baseballs in pain.