Sasaki not expected to sign with MLB team before Jan. 15

MLB.com is keeping track of the latest news and rumors surrounding Roki Sasaki.

Nov. 20: Sasaki not expected to sign with MLB team until Jan. 15
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said Wednesday that Sasaki is expected to be part of the 2025 international amateur signing class, which means the Japanese right-hander likely won't sign with a club before Jan. 15.

"It looks like ... the signing will happen in the new pool period," Manfred said on Wednesday.

This was always the expected route for Sasaki, who is subject to MLB's international amateur signing bonus pool rules because he is younger than 25 years old and hasn't reached six years of service time. That means the value of his big league contract is limited to the money available in a team's bonus pool. The Dodgers, with about $2.5 million, have the most money of any team left in its bonus pool during the current 2024 international signing period. But if Sasaki waits until Jan. 15, when the 2025 international signing period begins, he could sign a contract in the neighborhood of $7 million.

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo provided the complete list of international bonus pools for the 2025 signing period here.

Before Sasaki can sign with a team, he needs to be posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball club, the Chiba Lotte Marines. However, the team announced earlier this month that Sasaki will be posted this offseason.

Nov. 14: Could this be the deciding factor in the Sasaki sweepstakes?
The Dodgers are viewed as one of the top contenders to sign Sasaki once he is posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. However, The Athletic's Jim Bowden (subscription required) doesn't see it that way.

Based on his conversations with league sources, Bowden thinks it's "unlikely" Sasaki will sign with the Dodgers. And Bowden mentioned a few reasons why.

The main one has to do with money. Since Sasaki is younger than 25 years old and hasn't reached six years of service in a foreign major league, he is subject to MLB's international amateur signing bonus pool rules. He won't get anything close to the $325 million contract that Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto received last offseason. Instead, Sasaki's contract value will be limited to what a team has in its bonus pool. That could be somewhere in the neighborhood of $7 million if Sasaki waits to sign until after Jan. 15, when each team's bonus pool will be refilled for the start of the 2025 international signing period.

So, how can Sasaki make more money outside of his contract? Bowden says the answer is simple: endorsements. But therein lies the possible issue with a Sasaki-Dodgers match.

"In Los Angeles, [Sasaki would] be in the shadow of both [Shohei] Ohtani and Yamamoto, which would lessen his endorsement ceiling," Bowden wrote.

Conversely, if Sasaki signs with a team such as the Padres, not only would he share a clubhouse with his idol, Yu Darvish, the 23-year-old "could potentially maximize his endorsements in Japan, positioning himself as a rival to the Dodgers’ Ohtani and Yamamoto rather than a teammate of theirs."

Furthermore, a massive contingent of Japanese media cover the Dodgers on a daily basis, and, per Bowden, "that level of attention is not the best situation for a young, developing pitcher." The Dodgers are known for being fantastic with how they develop young pitchers. But Bowden points out that teams such as the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves also have strong pitching development programs, thereby possibly negating any advantage L.A. might have there.

"Based on what I’m hearing," Bowden wrote, "I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign Sasaki than the Dodgers -- and several other teams will be in the mix."

Nov. 9: Do the Padres have an edge in the Sasaki sweepstakes?
MLB.com's Mark Feinsand lists several favorites to land Sasaki, including the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Cubs and Rangers. But he writes that the two most likely landing spots, at least according to one NL executive, would be the Dodgers and Padres.

An article in The Athletic (subscription required) adds the Phillies as a team to watch and also suggests that the Padres may have an advantage by way of one of their current starters.

"In the case of the Padres, Sasaki is believed to be like many other Japanese pitchers who hold a deep admiration for Yu Darvish," the report states.

That, coupled with Sasaki's reported preference for West Coast teams, could make the Padres a "favorite among favorites," so to speak.

Nov. 9: Sasaki to be posted by Chiba Lotte Marines
Sasaki appears headed to the Majors next season. Sasaki, the consensus top young pitcher in Japan, will be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of the Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced.

Sasaki, 23, should inspire an all-out pursuit reminiscent of Shohei Ohtani’s initial contract with the Angels, in league-wide interest and financial scope. Ohtani agreed to a $2.315 million signing bonus with the Angels in December 2017.

An unfettered market would have yielded a much larger contract, but foreign-born players are subject to international bonus pool money restrictions unless they are at least 25 years of age and have played as a professional in a foreign league recognized by Major League Baseball for a minimum of six seasons.

Ohtani was not yet 25 years old when he was posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters, so the Collective Bargaining Agreement classified him as an international amateur. Sasaki falls into the same category now. More >