Tigers have a good problem with rotation depth

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LAKELAND, Fla. -- Remember the days when the Tigers rotation was Tarik Skubal, Keider Montero and pitching chaos?

You know, the days from six months ago?

The way starting pitching candidates are dealing this Spring Training, the Tigers could break camp with more viable starters than rotation slots for them. And the group could get even more crowded soon enough.

In fairness, this is how Spring Training is supposed to work. Teams spend the offseason stocking up on pitching on the assumption that they’ll need more than five starters over the course of the season, either due to injuries or struggles. Remember, Matt Manning was the odd man out in Detroit’s rotation out of Spring Training last year, but he made three starts in April as an extra starter for doubleheaders.

Even with that understanding, the pitching competition going on in Tigers camp is impressive. Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize and Kenta Maeda all came into camp having spent the offseason improving their games. All three have shown major progress from how they ended last season. They’ve been so impressive that they’ve overshadowed Montero, who has struck out nine batters over 5 2/3 innings while spinning an impressive array of breaking balls.

Thus, what looked like a concern for the Tigers with two open rotation spots following Alex Cobb’s hip injury now looks like a surplus. And no matter how well they pitch, the competition looks set to go down to the final days of camp.

With two-plus turns left in the rotation before the Tigers break camp and head to the West Coast for two exhibitions and Opening Day, here’s where the team stands:

Jackson Jobe
Jobe, MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 pitching prospect and No. 5 prospect overall, has become one of Spring Training’s top stories, not just in Tigers camp but across baseball. He has made three starts on the road against some stacked lineups and hasn’t backed down. The curveball he worked on over the offseason has looked at times like a wipeout pitch and at other times like a buckler that he can spot for strikes. His strikeout of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on three fastballs at the top of the strike zone last Saturday became viral, as did his reaction afterward.

Then there’s the Prospect Promotion Incentive: Since Jobe still qualifies a rookie, if he spends the full season (or at least 172 days) on the Major League roster, the Tigers would get a Draft pick if he wins Rookie of the Year this year, or if he places in the top three in American League Cy Young or MVP Award voting before becoming arbitration eligible. The way he’s pitching, it’s not hard to envision him as a viable Rookie of the Year candidate. He’s clearly one of Detroit’s five best starters.

Casey Mize
Mize enters his scheduled start Wednesday having tossed eight scoreless innings on three hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts this spring. Half of those strikeouts came in three innings against a fairly strong Orioles lineup last Friday. Mize’s splitter, now a harder pitch with velocity averaging 89-90 mph, looks like the wipeout pitch everyone anticipated when the Tigers drafted him first overall in 2018. His overall velocity has gotten the kind of bounce many pitchers get in their second season back from Tommy John surgery.

Mize’s three-slider variety pack is still getting fine-tuned but shows promise. If he can pound the strike zone a little bit more over his final starts, he’ll have an excellent case for a rotation spot.

Kenta Maeda
Maeda continues to show the benefit of starting his throwing program earlier than usual this offseason, but his start Monday was a mixed bag that included three first-inning homers into a stiff wind blowing out to right, but also five strikeouts. His average fastball velocity was still a tick up from last year but down from his other outings this spring, and he paid for pitches in the strike zone. But like Mize, his splitter has had a renaissance, including seven whiffs on 13 swings Monday.

If Maeda’s velocity boost holds better in shorter outings, a move to the bullpen could be a decent option. His next outing should give a better read whether Monday was a blip or a trend.

Keider Montero
Montero, the only Tigers pitcher to go the distance and toss a shutout last year, came to camp to prove he wasn’t a one-year wonder. He looked outstanding in his first two outings before allowing a four-run first inning last Friday against the Orioles, an outing in which he still struck out five over 2 2/3 innings. If there’s a pitcher in the group who could reprise the Manning role of call-up starter out of the gate, it’s Montero, who performed well in that role for a stretch last season.