Going behind the numbers to explain Twins' slow start

MINNEAPOLIS -- A day after their best all-around game of the year, the Twins followed up with one of their most discouraging. The same threads that have cost them repeated losses showed through on Monday in a 5-1 loss to the Mets at Target Field.

Minnesota has lost seven out of its last nine to fall to 5-12 on the year, dredging up unpleasant memories of a 12-27 finish to last season. Here are some numbers that help explain how it’s gotten to this point.

3.29
That’s the Twins’ average runs per game, and put simply, it’s the biggest issue right now. The starters have found a groove, and many (though not all) of the relievers are pitching well. But seven months after a team-wide slump knocked the Twins out of what seemed to be a secure postseason spot, the recent losses and offensive struggles have at least some people in the clubhouse feeling a disconcerting sense of déjà vu. Minnesota scored 3.48 runs per game in September of last year.

“It feels exactly like late last year,” said Carlos Correa, who went 0-for-4 to continue a rough individual start to the season. “We have to figure out a way to bounce back and make sure this doesn’t dictate the rest of the season.”

9 and 6
Minnesota pitchers committed their fifth and sixth throwing errors in the loss to the Mets, the continuation of a disconcerting trend. They were the eighth and ninth throwing errors by Twins players this year, the highest total in the Major Leagues.

Monday was probably a loss even without the errors -- one by Justin Topa on a relatively routine play and one by Jorge Alcala on a play where he probably should have just elected not to try to throw the ball. But some of the errors have been deeply costly, and there’s no denying that they’re adding up. It’s a frustrating ongoing issue that needs to get solved.

“These should be routine plays and I don’t think any of these guys that are on our staff would argue with any of that,” said manager Rocco Baldelli. “You remain calm, you step, and you throw the ball to first base. And that’s the way in practice that it works. That’s not what anyone is looking for. But we’ve just simply got to make those plays. And that’s not far-fetched. It’s PFP.”

3 and 2
This one will take a little setting up.

The Twins have scored five or more runs six times in 17 games this year. In those six games, their two biggest stars, Byron Buxton and Correa, are 12-for-44 with 14 runs and eight RBIs. In the team’s other 11 games, the two linchpins have combined for three RBIs and two runs.

It is absolutely not all on Buxton and Correa; most of the offense is still searching, and they’ve both had their moments. That’s especially true of Buxton, who has keyed a couple of wins with big hits. But it’s not an overstatement to say that when Buxton and Correa deliver results, the Twins score runs. When they don’t, the offense tends to stagnate.

“We’ve been trying,” said Correa. “We’ve been putting in the work and doing everything that’s within our control. Honestly, I don’t know what to tell you right now, but we have to figure it out as a team.”