What to expect from Jackson Merrill
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The Padres had an opening in their Major League center field spot, and heading into the season-opening Seoul Series, they¡¯ve addressed that ¡ with their star shortstop prospect.
San Diego is giving No. 12 overall prospect Jackson Merrill his Major League debut as the club¡¯s starting center fielder on Wednesday.
The 20-year-old¡¯s ascent to The Show is the latest chapter in president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and the Padres front office being aggressive with their top young talents. Fernando Tatis Jr. famously debuted at just 20 years old too in 2019, skipping right over Triple-A as Merrill is doing this spring, and CJ Abrams was up as a 21-year-old in April 2022. Lower down, Ethan Salas reached Double-A at just 17 years old last summer, and 2024 international signee Leodalis De Vries is already stateside.
But in Merrill¡¯s case in particular, San Diego felt ready to push the 2021 27th overall pick at this point in his development because his bat could at least hold its own against Major League pitching.
A left-handed hitter, the 6-foot-3 Merrill struck out only 12.1 percent of the time last season over 114 games at High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio, and that K rate actually improved at the higher level (11.8). The high rate of contact continued into the spring as Merrill got ample Cactus League looks, punching out only three times in 40 plate appearances (7.5 percent) while slashing .351/.400/.595 with two homers and three doubles in 13 games.
The Maryland native has long stood out for his ability to control the barrel, squaring up balls to all fields while protecting the plate at the same time. A promising step in his development last year was improved elevation on contact as his groundball rate shrunk from 59.6 percent in 2022 to 42.5 in ¡¯23, and that helped lead to a career-high 15 homers.
Considering Merrill is likely to bat low in the San Diego lineup to begin his career, the Padres don¡¯t need the phenom to be a huge power threat straight out of the gate. Prioritizing contact and getting on base ahead of more experienced boppers Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Tatis atop the order would be a fine fit for the big club¡¯s needs. But given Merrill¡¯s power trajectory, he could reach 20-plus homers in the bigs as he gets deeper into his 20s.
The big question mark facing Merrill in his move to the Majors is on the defensive side.
Entering 2024, he had made 178 of his 186 career Minor League starts at shortstop, and while he was considered fairly big for the position, he had shown enough improved arm strength and quickness to hold down the role. But with Bogaerts signed long-term and Ha-Seong Kim looking like a potential defensive wizard on the dirt, it became clear that as Merrill¡¯s bat looked MLB-ready he¡¯d likely have to move out of the middle infield to find a place in San Diego.
Though he¡¯s just an average runner, Merrill should have enough speed to cover some ground in center. The presence of Platinum Glove winner Tatis in right should ease his need to chase down balls in the gap to his left, and Tatis¡¯ presence likely played a role in the club¡¯s decision to push Merrill into center. That said, Merrill had zero games of center-field experience in the Minors ¨C his only outfield time came in left ¨C and his jumps and routes will likely take even more repetitions to improve. For his part, Merrill has talked this spring about preferring center to the corners because he found immediate comfort with his reads on balls coming straight-on rather than those that are sidespun and headed toward the foul lines.
Growing pains are to be expected on the defensive end, but the Padres are comfortable enough with spring looks to push their No. 2 prospect out there on the big stage. The biggest industrywide belief is in the bat anyway, and if Merrill adjusts to MLB pitching the way he has to arms everywhere else, San Diego could have another star homegrown talent on its hands.