What to expect from Logan Gilbert in MLB

It’s already becoming a familiar adage when talking about the group of very talented prospects that is collecting at the upper levels of farm systems across baseball. It goes something like, “He would have certainly/likely/possibly already made it up to the big leagues if the 2020 season had been a normal one.”

There is very little question that Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert would be in that certainly bucket. So instead of talking last year about what to expect from him, the time is now as the Mariners are bringing up their No. 4 prospect (No. 28 on the overall Top 100) to make his first Major League start on Thursday, the same day as outfield phenom Jarred Kelenic.

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Gilbert was the first of three straight college arms the Mariners took with their first-round pick in the Draft, the No. 14 overall pick in 2018 from a Stetson University program that had previously produced later-round finds Corey Kluber and Jacob deGrom. He was the fifth-highest-ranked college pitcher in a class that was led by Casey Mize, now with the Tigers, and Brady Singer, now up with the Royals.

Gilbert had seen his velocity drop a touch early that junior year, as it turned out he pitched through a bout of mono. Suffice it to say that hasn’t been an issue since as the 6-foot-6 right-hander has seen his fastball trend upward since signing. He’s become more physical as he’s advanced and has gone from someone who approached the mid-90s at Stetson to someone who easily sits mid-90s and touches 97 mph consistently with outstanding life.

His secondary stuff has all improved as well, with above-average offerings in his slider and changeup trending toward plus and a curve that’s at least average. And he throws all of them for quality strikes. After striking out 11.2 and walking 2.8 per nine in college, he hasn’t missed a beat, even as he’s thrown harder and against better competition, with a 10.9 K/9 rate and just 2.1 walks per nine as a professional. He pitched across three levels in his first full season and kept hitters to a .198 batting average against.

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He was the best pitching prospect at the Mariners’ alternate training site in 2020, but he wasn’t called up as the Mariners erred on the side of caution, understandable since Gilbert’s only real competitive innings had come in 2019 and he made just nine starts above A ball. But after he threw well this spring, everyone knew it was just a matter of time.

Gilbert served notice with his first Triple-A start this season, out-dueling top pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore of the Padres, giving up one run on four hits and no walks while striking out five over five innings. El Paso hitters weren’t exactly squaring him up as he elicited a 30 percent whiff rate. That’s actually a little low for him, as he had a 31.4 percent whiff rate in 2019. For context, the Major League average right now is around 27 percent.

All of these numbers paint a picture of a pitcher who has evolved from an interesting mid-rotation type when he was drafted, to a guy who looks very much like a future frontline starter. What adds to the certainty is Gilbert’s work ethic. There will not be a starting pitcher in Seattle or elsewhere who will outwork or be more prepared than Gilbert. The bar he has set throughout the organization is having an impact far beyond what he does every fifth day on the mound, something that bodes well for someone who could lead the big league rotation in the near future.

“When your top guy has behaviors like that, it’s hard for a pitcher to watch what he does and not think they should be doing something similar,” Mariners farm director Andy McKay said during Spring Training. “When one guy becomes two and two becomes three, it really helps. For me, what Logan does for our group, as far as the example he sets, he ups the game and raises the standard level for everyone.”