'Go-to pitch' missing for Kikuchi in tough loss

HOUSTON -- As the post-All-Star-break sample size continues to grow and the results spiral more and more downward, it’s hard not to question: Is it time to worry about Yusei Kikuchi?

Seattle’s lone All-Star was crushed for seven runs, including a season-high three homers, in Friday’s 12-3 loss to the Astros at Minute Maid Park. He lasted just 2 2/3 innings -- marking the second-shortest of his 64 starts, not counting an outing he was explicitly used as a one-inning opener back in April 2019.

Though his fastball velocity crept back up some after a notable decline, it wasn’t consistently in the high 90s, and he left far too many in ideal quadrants of the strike zone. And his slider did not slide for most of the night, making it a feast pitch. The same could be said for his cutter, which didn’t generate any swings and misses.

When he was pulled for Wyatt Mills, Kikuchi had just walked No. 9 hitter Martín Maldonado, and at that point, the Mariners were down seven runs and simply looking to maintain his workload, which reached 72 pitches.

“It starts and ends with starting pitching, and tonight, Yusei just didn't have it,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “They were all over him.”

Kikuchi made arguably his best start of the season on this same mound back on April 29, when he threw seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. Four months later, he looked much different, and it’s been a trend that, more or less, began on July 7 against the Yankees.

Past 8 starts: 1-4, 6.69 ERA (29 ER, 39 IP), .311/.388/.605 (.993 OPS)
Previous 11 starts: 6-2, 2.33 ERA (18 ER, 69 2/3 IP), .173/.242/.325 (.567 OPS)

Another telling sign of trouble: A sizable 10 of the 13 balls in play against him were beyond Statcast’s 95 mph hard-hit threshold. Friday marked the third time this season that he’s been tagged for that many hard-hit balls, and all three have been since the All-Star break.

Highest hard-hit rate since All-Star break (min. 100 batted balls)

1) Zach Davies: 55.3%
2) Yusei Kikuchi: 54.2%
3) Shane McClanahan: 51.5%
4) Michael Pineda: 50%
5) Jordan Lyles: 48.1%

While his diminished velocity is far from ideal, the more concerning issue could be the effectiveness of his slider. Batters entered Friday’s start hitting .324 and slugging .595 against it in this current stretch, after hitting .213 with a .330 slugging percentage against the pitch in his previous 11 starts. Each of the three homers on Friday were against the slider, along with a leadoff single by Carlos Correa in the third. Kikuchi generated just two outs with the pitch, both groundouts.

“I feel like my slider was up in the zone a little bit, for the most part, and they were able to put a good swing on it,” Kikuchi said. “Regarding the slider, it's more of commanding it and throwing it where I want to. And so ... that's going to be one of my main focuses to kind of get better at moving forward.”

The same could be said for his cutter, which is a vital part of his arsenal. Essentially, it’s a bridge pitch from his fastball, which he uses to control counts, to the slider, which has been an elite out pitch.

“The cutter is such a big pitch for him, and it really hasn't been there the last three or four times out,” Servais said. “It's something that he’s trying to work on and trying to work through, to get it back for him, because he’s going to need that pitch. It’s kind of his go-to pitch, his bread and butter, and it just hasn't been there for him here recently.”

It’s also worth noting the context of the opponent and that the Astros, despite their struggling offense this month, are still the class of the American League West, and they reminded the Mariners -- and the rest of the league -- as such. Mills and Erik Swanson surrendered a combined five additional runs for 12 total, a mark Houston has reached six times this season.

“Overall, I kind of feel like they were on all my pitches for the most part, timing wise,” Kikuchi said. “And then to fall behind in the count like I did tonight, just really does not put myself in a great position.”