What does a potential Kikuchi Deadline deal look like?

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- It looks like the sun may be setting on Yusei Kikuchi’s time in Toronto.

The Blue Jays left-hander has just one more start scheduled before the July 30 Trade Deadline. He will line up on Friday against the Rangers at Rogers Centre, and while Kikuchi hasn’t exactly repeated his excellent 2023 season, he’s still done enough to generate plenty of interest as a rental arm.

Kikuchi’s performance Saturday against the Tigers was sharp at first, but things unraveled quickly when he loaded the bases and handed the reins to Trevor Richards, who immediately allowed a grand slam. Kikuchi’s ERA now sits at 4.54 through 111 innings, and for teams shopping for a starter below the Jack Flaherty and Garrett Crochet tier -- targeting depth instead of a frontline guy -- Kikuchi makes a lot of sense as an upside play.

There’s a person in the middle of this, too. The language of “assets” and “maximizing a return” can pull us away from that, but Kikuchi, his wife and their son have set up a life in Toronto. There’s nothing easy about this from a player standpoint, given all of the uncertainty that’s hanging over him right now.

“Yes, obviously I’m thinking about the Deadline sometimes, but every start out there, I tell myself that I’ve got to focus on the game,” Kikuchi said through interpreter Yusuke Oshima. “It’s in the back of your mind and it’s hard not to think about the Deadline. It’s been tough, but I’ve just got to go out there and do it.”

So what could a potential deal look like?

Let’s look back a year to the 2023 Trade Deadline. There isn’t necessarily a perfect comparison, but let’s try to frame Kikuchi’s value within two deals we saw one year ago:

The ceiling: Jack Flaherty to the Orioles
Flaherty, who the Blue Jays lost to Friday night in Toronto with the Tigers, was still just 27 years old last season when he was dealt from the Cardinals to the O’s for Baltimore’s No. 16 prospect César Prieto, its No. 18 prospect left-hander Drew Rom and Single-A reliever right-hander Zack Showalter. More importantly, both Prieto and Rom were in Triple-A, ready to help their new team as early as the next season. The Blue Jays need prospects who can either help in 2025 or be part of the new era beginning in ‘26 and beyond, not a young kid who’s still five years away.

The age discrepancy between Kikuchi and Flaherty is a minor factor here, given that they were both dealt as rentals, and Flaherty arguably had more upside at the time than Kikuchi does now, but their numbers during the seasons in question were fairly similar. Let’s use the Flaherty package -- two ranked prospects who can help in the near-term -- as the ceiling of what the Blue Jays could hope to get for Kikuchi.

The floor: Ryan Yarbrough to the Dodgers
The Dodgers sent first baseman Devin Mann, their No. 29 prospect at the time, and Rookie-ball infielder Duerlin Figueroa to the Royals for Yarbrough. At the time, Yarbrough was coming off a string of four strong starts since returning from the IL and had a 4.24 ERA on the season between the bullpen and the rotation. It’s difficult to compare a true starter in Kikuchi to a swingman in Yarbrough, but the package the Dodgers sent to acquire Yarbrough is useful here to establish a floor.

In the next 10 days, we’ll know exactly where the Blue Jays land with Kikuchi. Along with Yimi García, who looked fantastic in his return from the IL Saturday, Kikuchi is the Blue Jays’ best shot at acquiring a prospect who can make an actual impact for this organization in the coming years.

The decision will bring some peace of mind to Kikuchi and his family, too, regardless of which city he wakes up in on the morning of July 31.