Will Mark Trumbo hit 50 home runs? Eight stretch run questions we can't wait to have answered
It's official: We are in the final stretch run. While plenty of attention will be given to the teams racing for the postseason -- as of Tuesday, roughly 15 teams are in close contention for a playoff spot -- there are a number of individual accomplishments to be on the lookout for as the season comes to a close.
Here's what to look for in the last four weeks:
All stats as of 9/6.
Trumbo is a very strong man. This should be obvious, given that he has a swing made for dismantling mountains ... and, he had a streak in August where seven straight hits happened to be home runs. Sitting on 41 home runs, Trumbo will need to pick up the pace if he's going to become the first player to reach 50 home runs since his teammate,
Trumbo only hit double-digit home runs in one month this season (August), and he will need to do that again in September to reach 50. Sadly, the Orioles don't have a trip to the land of dingers -- Colorado -- coming up.
Oddly enough, the right-handed Trumbo has a reverse platoon-split this season, crushing right-handers to the tune of a .284 average and 31 HRs, while barely touching lefties with only a .179 average. If Trumbo can return to his career norms and start crushing some southpaws, he might just be able to make it.
On the surface, Dozier reaching 40 homers would seem less impressive than Trumbo making it to a half-century, but it is actually a little more rare -- at least for a second baseman. In baseball history, only three keystoners have ever hit 40 homers: Ryne Sandberg (1990), Davey Johnson (1973) and Rogers Hornsby (1922). Sitting on 38 dingers after his three-home run burst on Monday, Dozier has a good chance of making that group large enough for a golf outing.
That he even has a chance this year is pretty surprising. Dozier had only 5 home runs with a .624 OPS through the end of May. Since then: 33 home runs and an OPS more than 400 points higher. Basically, take
Stealing 60 bases would be a pretty impressive feat in today's era: Only three players have eclipsed the total this decade (
A lack of on-base abilities hampered
But he's not the only basestealing threat in the Majors -- Milwaukee's
There's intrigue at the other end of the baserunning spectrum, too. Along with Trumbo and Davis, Orioles sluggers
That's right: Baltimore has stolen only 16 bases, including the one Adam Jones swiped on Sunday afternoon. The Cardinals have the second-fewest with 31, nearly twice as many as the Orioles have grabbed. This is the epitome of the Earl Weaver, three-run homer dream team.
While the Orioles won't break the Major League record of 13 set by the 1957 Washington Senators (maybe there's something in the Beltway water?), they could be the first team since the 1972 Tigers to swipe fewer than 20. They've got a good chance at pulling it off: The team leader in steals is
The Orioles sure are doing a lot of interesting things this year, huh? While Davis has an outside chance at setting the single-season strikeout record, we're more interested in Zach Britton's work on the mound. After going 43 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run, Britton had lowered his ERA to 0.53. That was good enough to take the lead over the Plantain-loving, arrow-zinging
Unfortunately for the sinker-hurling Britton, he surrendered a run to the Nationals on Aug. 24 and his ERA is now a sparkling -- if not record-setting -- 0.65. If he can go through the month of September without allowing a run -- a plenty hard task -- he has a chance.
While our cries for David Ortiz to please, please reconsider his retirement seem to have fallen on deaf ears, at least he's going out on a high note. The DH has already set the record for most doubles in a season for anyone over age-40 with 44. His OPS+ is 164 in his final season, behind only the 172 held by Shoeless Joe Jackson in his finale campaign.
Of course, Shoeless Joe's career ended in 1920 when he was still eight years Ortiz's junior and was forced out of the league, so should that really count? With a hot streak to end the season, perhaps Ortiz can render the discussion moot.
By one traditional stat, however, the conversation is far less nuanced.
Ortiz has already hit 31 home runs, which is more than any retiring player other than Dave Kingman (35) -- that includes Mark McGwire (29), Ted Williams (29) and Barry Bonds (28). It's also the second-most home runs hit by a player over the age of 40. Only Darrell Evans hit more during his 1987 season with the Tigers -- and Ortiz could pass his mark of 34 homers by knocking four more in the season's final days.
He has yet to hit a home run in September, but the fewest he's managed to hit in a single month this year were the four he clocked back in June, so the odds would seem to be in his favor.
Daniel Murphy was always a solid hitter, especially for a second baseman. And then 2015 came. Not only did Murphy set a (then) career-high in home runs, but he went full supernova in the postseason. Many thought that was going to be the high point of Murphy's career.
Then 2016 happened.
Murphy is hitting .340/.383/.593 with 25 home runs as the Nats run away with the NL East. That .340 average puts him just three points behind D.J. LeMahieu for the NL batting title.
Will LeMahieu's hot season and .384 BABIP keep going? Or will Murphy be able to overtake the Coors Field second baseman?
Oddly enough, with
Save for 2014, when an injury restricted him to only 62 games, Votto has led the National League in walks every year since 2011. Entering Tuesday, Votto was again at the top of the leaderboard with 99 bases on balls. But there are others coming up close behind him: Arizona's
He's so good at drawing them, sometimes he can even get them after only three balls.
Which do you think is most likely?
