NORTH PORT, Fla. -- Drake Baldwin acts like a north star in North Port.
The Braves¡¯ farm system is notably pitching-heavy, especially at the top. Ten of Atlanta¡¯s top 13 prospects in MLB Pipeline¡¯s rankings are hurlers. But the prospect story of the spring has been one of the organization¡¯s hitters; its top hitter, in fact, and even more importantly, its top overall prospect in Baldwin.
The No. 62 overall prospect put himself in Major League consideration with a breakout 2024 season in which he hit .298/.407/.484 with 12 homers and a near-even 54/52 K/BB ratio over 72 games for Triple-A Gwinnett before rounding out his year with stints in the Arizona Fall League and Premier12 tournament. The 23-year-old could have been in line to be Sean Murphy¡¯s backup in the bigs. That is until the veteran backstop suffered a cracked left rib, putting the starting role up for grabs and within Baldwin¡¯s reach.
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It's a long way from the 2022 third-rounder¡¯s time at Double-A Mississippi last year. Before that run with Gwinnett, Baldwin opened 2024 in the Southern League and hit just .244/.313/.337 with four homers in 52 games. He struck out in only 18.9 percent of his plate appearances, and his .285 BABIP indicated he might have been unlucky. He had an 83.2 percent contact rate on his swings there though, leading Atlanta to promote him in early June regardless of the numbers.
¡°A lot of the stuff that he was doing in Mississippi is what we've always liked about Drake,¡± said Braves assistant general manager Ben Sestanovich. ¡°He was still controlling the zone, hitting the ball really hard. I think he hit into some bad luck, but I think you've just seen his approach mature as he's faced better competition. I think the big thing that we saw, even as an amateur, was the opposite-field power continuing to come along. We¡¯ve just seen him continue to manage his at-bats.¡±
One thing to keep in mind about Baldwin -- and anyone who played at Mississippi in recent years -- is that the M-Braves¡¯ home of Trustmark Park was one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in Double-A and even all of Minor League Baseball. Mississippi hitters slugged only 16 homers at home in 2024; no other Double-A team hit fewer than 31. Their collective .278 home slugging percentage was the lowest among full-season Minor Leaguers; compare that to .350 on the road.
¡°Hitting is hard enough, right,¡± Sestanovich said. ¡°All of our guys are very aware that Mississippi was a hard place to hit. We try to do as good a job as we can celebrating the moments where they hit balls really hard that are caught on the track. We¡¯re noticing that even if it¡¯s not showing up in a box score.¡±
That topic could be about to change in 2025 with the Braves¡¯ Double-A affiliate moving to Columbus, Ga., this spring. The Clingstones¡¯ Synovus Park is a refurbished edition of Columbus¡¯ Golden Park, and Sestanovich and the rest of the Braves organization will wait to see how it plays in games. But in comparison to Mississippi, it can really go one direction.
Still, Baldwin¡¯s profile should set the standard for future breakout hitters in the Atlanta system and maybe an evening out of the balance between bats and arms.
¡°I think the biggest thing they know is that if you perform well, we're going to move you and reward that performance,¡± Sestanovich said. ¡°If there's an example to be shown in Drake, it's that, hey, if you guys control the zone and take good at bats, there's opportunity.¡±
Something to prove: Hurston Waldrep
A first-rounder in 2023, Waldrep moved quickly and furiously through the Braves system in his first full season, reaching the Majors on June 9. He made only two starts for Atlanta, serving up 13 earned runs over seven combined innings and didn¡¯t return for the remainder of the season, due in part to elbow inflammation.
He made only one appearance this Spring Training (a scoreless inning of relief at the Pirates on Feb. 25) and was somewhat surprisingly optioned back to Triple-A Gwinnett on the same day. It¡¯s still too early in the 23-year-old¡¯s career to have much concern, but the fact that he was moved back so early is evidence he has more to do to get serious MLB looks again. Waldrep¡¯s mid-80s splitter remains easily his best pitch with impressively low spin rates, but while his fastball will get up to 99 mph, its lack of life is concerning to some evaluators. (Most of his four-seamers on Feb. 25 registered horizontal break of 1 or 0 inches.) Sestanovich notes that the Braves' No. 4 prospect is working on adding depth to his slider to give himself a gloveside option that could help in his pursuit to remain as a starter.
¡°I think it's all about just him learning where he can go in the zone at what points in the count,¡± Sestanovich said. ¡°Obviously, the split¡¯s a really good pitch, but I think sometimes it even overshadows the slider, which has looked really good this spring. I think both of those pitches are obviously huge for him, in addition to the fastball. It's just continuing to mix and get ahead of hitters, and we know he has the weapons to get really good hitters out.¡±
Breakout potential: JR Ritchie
Anyone who knows Ritchie¡¯s recent story probably shot up in their chairs when they saw Atlanta¡¯s No. 8 prospect touch 98 on his first pitch to Max Clark (MLB No. 6) in the Spring Breakout game against the Tigers in North Port, Fla.
Ritchie underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023 and returned to a Minor League mound in the Florida Complex League last June. His results between there, Single-A Augusta and High-A Rome were solid -- a 2.90 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 49 2/3 innings -- but his fastball averaged just 91.7 mph and peaked at 94, according to Synergy Sports.
Adrenaline certainly could have come into play, but even so, Ritchie continued to mix in some 97s before settling more in the mid-90s over his three innings, in which he fanned a pair and allowed two earned runs on five hits. His slider showed promising sweep and his changeup, which Sestanovich pointed to as much improved, got a few whiffs too against lefties.
The next step for the 21-year-old is carrying this new velocity into the season, holding it and staying healthy. But if he does, he could be the system¡¯s next big arm.
¡°The rehab¡¯s not easy,¡± he said during the MLB Network broadcast. ¡°It takes a long time to really get back, especially once you¡¯re in games. It¡¯s more like 18 months, rather than the 12-14 that they tell you. Having an offseason for me and being able to get some lifts in -- a true offseason where I¡¯m able to take time off and throw and ramp up -- it was really beneficial for me.¡±
Something new: Lucas Braun
You may have heard the "kick change" bandied about a good amount this spring. It¡¯s a pitch designed for supinators who can¡¯t pronate very well and therefore have trouble developing a quality changeup. By spiking the middle finger, pitchers are able to push the ball with said digit upon release, causing armside spin. Clay Holmes has been perhaps the most famous adopter in Arizona or Florida.
Add Braun to the list, per Sestanovich.
The Braves¡¯ No. 11 prospect already has plenty of pitches, including a four-seamer, a two-seamer, a slider and a curveball, and his previous changeup was somewhat effective. But in a sign of his pitching style, his 83-84 mph slide piece was easily his most-used secondary with Double-A Mississippi last year -- a pitch he threw 33 percent of the time. Finding an offspeed pitch that works best for his mechanics could provide a big boost for the 2023 sixth-rounder in his second full season.
¡°He's just going to be one of those guys that has a deep arsenal,¡± Sestanovich said. ¡°He's a guy who we¡¯ll be excited to see learn to use some of those new weapons.¡±