How Cardinals could use No. 5 pick in the 2025 Draft

December 16th, 2024

This story was excerpted from John Denton¡¯s Cardinals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

With the Cardinals being surprise winners of the No. 5 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft -- the highest they will pick in 27 years -- they should have access to the best high school and collegiate players in the country, and their scouting process figures to be exhaustive.

That scouting process will include skill assessments, background checks and family interviews -- even on prospects they already have a rather large familiarity with from years past.

Ethan Holliday, the son of Cardinals Hall of Famer Matt Holliday, was practically raised around Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Fla., and St. Louis¡¯ Busch Stadium as a baseball prodigy. Even as the projected No. 1 overall pick in Jim Callis¡¯ 2025 Mock Draft, Holliday will be the subject of the same intensive scouting routines, Cards Assistant GM/director of scouting Randy Flores joked.

¡°I¡¯ve heard that some people in our [organization] know that family pretty well, so we¡¯re going to have to track them down,¡± kidded Flores, whose playing career with the Cards ended in 2008 -- one year before the Redbirds traded for Holliday and he played in St. Louis for eight seasons. ¡°It¡¯ll all have to be official, including the official home visit.¡±

The Cardinals can dream of potentially landing a player as talented as Holliday -- a power-hitting infielder with his father¡¯s burly build -- after pulling off one of the biggest shockers in the MLB Draft Lottery. Despite entering with the fourth-worst odds to win the No. 1 pick and statistically projected to pick No. 13, the Cardinals jumped eight spots to No. 5 in the MLB Draft, which will take place from July 13-15.

The significance of that climb is enormous to the Cardinals. The No. 5 pick will be the highest the Cards have picked since 1998 when they drafted J.D. Drew. Combined with their selection of infielder JJ Wetherholt at No. 7 last year, it will be the first time in the rich history of the Cardinals that they will have top 10 picks in consecutive years.

The good fortune in the Draft, of course, comes at a time when the Cardinals have shifted their focus to creating opportunities for their young core, while also pouring gobs of resources into their player development systems. Having Wetherholt to pair with picks Nos. 5, 54 and 75 should give the Cardinals the juice they need to stockpile their Minor League system with the kind of difference-making talent that could prove to be a lifeblood for years to come. Also, it allows a franchise that has prided itself on using a ¡°draft and develop¡± plan to get back to one of its core beliefs.

¡°Hopefully, we can leverage that [No. 5 pick] and really add talent,¡± Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said. ¡°At fifth overall, you¡¯ll definitely get a good player.¡±

Flores -- whose 2020 drafting of Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Tink Hence and Alec Burleson might go down as one of the greatest talent hauls in franchise history -- thinks the work that went into selecting No. 7 last year should help the Cards in 2025. Wetherholt is already the No. 1 prospect in the Cardinals' system, per MLB Pipeline, and there¡¯s an expectation of grabbing another future star.

¡°It helps if you nail it, right?¡± Flores said. ¡°That¡¯s the pressure. Nothing is guaranteed in this game. The Draft is difficult, and you can go through top five picks as far back as you want, and not all those are everyday big leaguers or Hall of Famers. So there¡¯s a humility in knowing the difficulty of the task ahead, but also an excitement of knowing what the reward could be.¡±

Another difficulty the Cardinals could encounter in picking so high is the financial impact that name, image and likeness has had on top college players or incoming high school stars. Because those players can now earn millions of dollars while remaining ¡°amateurs,¡± it could make signability a tough target to pin down with elite players.

¡°The complicating factor is that the goalposts can be moved,¡± Flores said. ¡°When you go into a Draft, you have a general idea of someone¡¯s signability. Then, their college finds out that they¡¯re about to lose them and now you have a donor step up or someone else commit more, and you¡¯re dealing with a different set of numbers. That¡¯s the risk.¡±

It¡¯s certainly a big risk, but there¡¯s also a potential big reward for a Cardinals club excited to pick in the top 10 for a second year in a row.

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