MLB teams have coveted Roki Sasaki since he broke Shohei Ohtani's Japanese high school record by reaching 101 mph with his fastball as a 17-year-old in 2019, part of a 194-pitch, 12-inning, 21-strikeout complete game in the national summer Koshien tournament. When the Chiba Lotte Marines officially posted him in December, he created non-stop intrigue until he signed with the Dodgers for $6.5 million earlier this month.

That amount doesn't come close to representing his worth on the open market, because Sasaki was subject to the MLB's international bonus pool restrictions. Had he waited until he turned 25 and completed six seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, he would have been a free agent and almost certainly would have topped the record $325 million contract that Los Angeles gave fellow Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto in December 2023.

Though he excelled in the Japanese big leagues, recording a 30-15 record with a 2.02 ERA and a 524/91 K/BB ratio in 414 2/3 innings over four seasons, Sasaki counts as a rookie and a prospect in the United States. It wasn't difficult to rank him atop MLB Pipeline's new Top 100 Prospects list because he's easily one of the best pitching prospects of the past two decades.

Is Sasaki the best? We posed that question to several executives, asking how he stacks up against Stephen Strasburg (the No. 1 overall pick in 2009) and Paul Skenes (No. 1 in 2023), the top mound prospects in Draft history, and Ohtani, who created similar buzz when he came over from Japan in 2017.

Sasaki has a lot going for him, starting with an 88-91 mph splitter that features shockingly low spin rates, floating toward the plate before tumbling at the end. It may be the best pitch in the world right now, and many evaluators say they've never seen a better splitter. He also sat at 96-98 mph with his fastball last year, has touched 102.5 mph in the past and can flash a plus slider at 83-85 mph with two-plane depth.

• Complete scouting report on Roki Sasaki

Sasaki has been under the scouting microscope for years, so some imperfections have come to light. His command of his fastball and his consistency with his slider could use some work, and some scouts question the shape of his heater. He missed time the past couple of years with a torn left oblique (2023) and shoulder soreness (2024), and his velocity and life on his pitches regressed a bit last season.

Almost all of the club officials we consulted prefer Skenes to Sasaki at the same stage of their careers. Skenes didn't have a single pitch that could match Sasaki's splitter, but he had a better fastball with similar velocity, a significantly better slider, better command and a stronger build (6-foot-6, 235 pounds vs. 6-foot-2, 187 pounds). After signing for a then-record $9.2 million, Skenes added a 93-95 mph splinker (hybrid sinker/splitter) that played as the third-best pitch in the Majors during his rookie season last year.

"It's Skenes over Sasaki," a special assistant on an American League club said. "The thing about Skenes is he had the best college pitch data I've ever seen and he also had the second-best command in the whole 2023 Draft behind Rhett Lowder. That was shocking. I would have taken him 1-1 if he had fringy command because his stuff is so electric, and he wasn't even using his splinker then."

Ohtani vs. Sasaki is a closer call, not giving the three-time MVP any extra consideration for his two-way ability. Ohtani's proponents will point to his superior fastball finish, slider and health while noting that he had a well-above-average splitter, even if it wasn't as devastating as Sasaki's. Those who favor Sasaki do so because of his advantages with his splitter, strike-throwing and projectability.

"It's comparable in terms of raw quality of stuff and age," a player-personnel director with a National League team said. "The durability factor is one thing in Shohei's favor. Roki is more projectable and has a better split. I probably would have gone with Roki at the same stage."

• Subscribe to the MLB Pipeline Newsletter

The evaluators were similarly divided on Sasaki vs. Strasburg. Sasaki gets points for his otherworldly splitter and potentially higher ceiling. Strasburg's overall stuff was better relative to his era, his power curveball was at least a grade better than Sasaki's slider and he was stronger.

"I would take him over Strasburg," a second NL player-personnel director said. "He throws a little bit harder and still has projection. Sasaki at age 25, 26, 27 might have a gear he couldn't find. His ceiling is off the charts. You can make the case that his ceiling is higher than Ohtani and Skenes too because you can project more. But the more you project, the more risk there is."

The consensus among the executives we surveyed was that Ohtani, Skenes and Strasburg had higher floors because they had more well-rounded repertoires and physicality but that Sasaki might have more upside than any of them. He joins a Dodgers organization renowned for helping players develop to their fullest potential, albeit one that has been plagued by a lot of pitching injuries as well.

"Roki's ceiling is slightly higher provided that he can get stronger," the first player-personnel director said. "He can command his fastball a little bit better to his glove side. He can develop his slider. He should be a real asset right away and he's going to get better with refinement and projectability. He could easily be the best pitcher in the world with a little more development."