Comparing the industry's 2025 Top 100 Prospects lists

One of the joys of the offseason is poring over prospect rankings. Of course, there is no One True Prospects List handed down from the baseball heavens -- each list has its own set of preferences and biases.

Some people prefer upside while others put a premium on proximity to the Majors. One person may see a flawed swing where others see untapped potential. And in cross-referencing with scouts and executives, you can find a wide range of opinions.

One way to get an overall view of how the industry sees players is to take an average of many lists. Continuing one of our traditions, we'll take a look at our list along with prospect rankings from The Athletic, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN and FanGraphs.

For this exercise, we're looking at the top 100 prospects on each of these six rankings, with all other prospects getting a ranking of 101. It's worth noting that eligibility between the lists is not consistent. Some do not include players with experience in foreign professional leagues, such as Roki Sasaki, while others do include players who no longer have rookie eligibility by service time but have yet to surpass 50 innings pitched or 130 at-bats (e.g., Zebby Matthews and Heston Kjerstad).

Consensus players
There are 52 prospects who appear on all six of these rankings -- not counting Sasaki, who surely would land near the top had The Athletic and Baseball Prospectus included him. That's lower than we've seen in recent years -- there's been a consensus on between 56 and 65 players since 2020.

However, there are another 21 players who appear on five lists and 12 players who appear on four lists, which gives us 85 players who the industry largely considers Top 100 quality. That total is in line with recent history, which has ranged from 85 to 87 over the past five years.

However, there's not exactly a consensus on who belongs at the top of the list. Only two players -- Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony (average ranking: 1.7) and Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews (4.7) -- rank in the top 10 of all six lists. (Although, again, Sasaki surely would have if he were eligible on every list.)

Even with the disagreements, we can use these six rankings to build a composite top 10 list. In this exercise, we're including Sasaki but only averaging his grade across the four rankings that included him. Samuel Basallo (13) and Sebastian Walcott (17) are the only prospects to appear here but not on MLB Pipeline's top 10, but they were close behind.

1. Roki Sasaki, RHP, Dodgers (1.0)
2. Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox (1.7)
3. Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals (4.7)
4. Walker Jenkins, OF, Twins (6.2)
5. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers (6.5)
6. Carson Williams, SS, Rays (8.3)
7. Kristian Campbell, 2B/SS/OF, Red Sox (9.3)
8. Samuel Basallo, C/1B, Orioles (10.5)
9. Sebastian Walcott, SS, Rangers (12.2)
10. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies (12.5)

Guys we're high on
Every set of prospect writers inevitably has players that they are higher on than others. MLB Pipeline is no different. Below is a look at the 10 highest-ranking players whom we ranked at least 10 spots higher than the industry average.

Max Clark, OF, Tigers (MLB Pipeline: 6, industry average: 18.0)
Travis Bazzana, 2B, Guardians (10, 22.0)
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox (12, 23.5)
Jac Caglianone, 1B, Royals (22, 42.5)
Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Rockies (29, 48.0)
Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics (31, 53.2)
Kyle Teel, C, White Sox (32, 42.2)
Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians (36, 53.8)
Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox (39, 52.2)
Thomas White, LHP, Marlins (41, 53.3)

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One thing that all of these prospects have in common is that they are all recent first-round Draft picks, with six of them even going in the first six picks. Each of them is quite tooled up -- hence why they were taken so high -- but has concerns that left him lower on other lists.

Mayer and DeLauter have consistently dealt with injuries -- the latter is already sidelined for several months after undergoing surgery in February -- but could be in for bounceback seasons. Caglianone and Condon faced swing-and-miss concerns in their professional debuts, while Wilson and Montgomery struggled at the highest levels they reached last year. Clark, Bazzana, Teel and White all have quite well-rounded profiles that we're betting on translating into big results.

Guys the industry is higher on
Similarly, there are going to be players that the industry is higher on than we are. That's just how math works. Here's a look at prospects whom we placed at least 10 spots below the composite average, counting from the end of our Top 100 to the top.

Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Brewers (99, 64.4)
Jonny Farmelo, OF, Mariners (95, 84.8)
Josue Brice?o, 1B/C, Tigers (94, 78.2)
Kevin Alc¨¢ntara, OF, Cubs (89, 67.3)
Thayron Liranzo, C/1Bf, Tigers (81, 66.7)
Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals (78, 60.7)
Tink Hence, RHP, Cardinals (76, 58.3)
Zyhir Hope, OF, Dodgers (74, 60.3)
Alex Freeland, SS, Dodgers (71, 56.5)
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves (62, 39.0)

In opposition to the "guys we're high on" list, this group is full of lower Draft picks and international signees. Farmelo (29th overall) is the only player drafted in the top 60, and Susana ($1.7 million) was the only international player to sign for more than $1 million. We've clearly bought into their rise by putting them on our Top 100 but are more cautious about their placement than others.

It's worth noting that the player with the highest average rating who was not on our Top 100 was Rangers right-hander Alejandro Rosario (average rating of 63.5). He was initially No. 50 when our list came out in late January but got bumped off when he underwent Tommy John surgery. That No. 50 ranking also means MLB Pipeline was higher than most on him pre-injury. Marlins catcher Agustin Ramirez (82.8) is the next highest player off our rankings, and he was one of 10 players who just missed the Top 100.

Polarizing players
If you want to get a sense of how widely opinions about prospects can vary, look no further than this group. These players each had a standard deviation of at least 25 places, and that would have been far higher if every list went beyond 100 since we capped the point value for any player at 101 in this exercise.

Zyhir Hope, OF, Dodgers (High: 8, Low: NR, MLB: 74, SD: 30.9)
Alfredo Duno, C, Reds (High: 29, Low: NR, MLB: NR, SD: 28.8)
Adrian Del Castillo, C, D-backs (High: 30, Low: NR, MLB: NR, SD: 28.4)
Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals (High: 19, Low: NR, MLB: 78, SD: 28.1)
Jeferson Quero, C, Brewers (High: 15, Low: 99, MLB: 47, SD: 27.5)
Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics (High: 31, Low: NR, MLB: 31, SD: 27.1)
Felnin Celesten, SS, Mariners (High: 24, Low: NR, MLB: 73, SD: 26.8)
Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Brewers (High: 27, Low: NR, MLB: 99, SD: 26.6)
Agustin Ramirez, C/1B, Marlins (High: 43, Low: NR, MLB: NR, SD: 26.6)
Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Rockies (High: 29, Low: NR, MLB: 29, SD: 26.5)

Naturally, these players got high scores because at least one list had them in the top 50 -- or even top 10! -- while at least one other didn't include them. MLB Pipeline tended to have a lower ranking for most of the divisive players, and we were only the high ones on Wilson and Condon. Quero was the most divisive player who landed on all six Top 100s, with The Athletic putting him 15th and FanGraphs listing him 99th.

"Flag" players
We've discussed players that MLB Pipeline is higher on than the industry average, but what about players that only one rankings include? These are "flag" players, as in a prospect an outlet will plant their proverbial flag on. Of note, we are excluding Zebby Matthews, whom Baseball America ranked 73rd but other lists did not consider eligible.

The Athletic: Nick Yorke, 2B/OF, Pirates (50)
Baseball America: Cole Carrigg, OF/SS, Rockies (85)
Baseball Prospectus: Robert Calaz, OF, Rockies (49)
ESPN: Brady House, 3B, Nationals (47)
FanGraphs: Yoniel Curet, RHP, Rays (61)
MLB Pipeline: James Triantos, 2B/OF, Cubs (72)

There are several different types of prospects across this group. Triantos and Yorke are close to the Majors with high floors but limited ceilings. House was a consensus Top 50 prospect just last year but had concerning strikeout numbers that scared off other prospect writers. Meanwhile, Calaz, Curet and Carrigg are all young, tooled up and potentially on the brink of breakout seasons.

Miscellaneous

Lowest standard deviation (outside top 10): Jasson Dom¨ªnguez, OF, Yankees (High: 16, Low: 28, Avg: 22.5, SD: 4.0)
The least polarizing prospects tended to be the highest-ranked ones. But after that group, "The Martian" stands out as the prospect with the lowest standard deviation in his ranking. FanGraphs was the highest on him, Baseball America was the lowest, and MLB Pipeline (21) was in the middle.

Just made the cut: Charlee Soto, RHP, Twins (100/ESPN)
Soto, the 34th pick in the 2023 Draft, is the only player to make just one of the six rankings and sit 100th on that list. But no matter the ranking, he still counts as a Top 100 prospect in at least one book. Infield prospects Orelvis Martinez (Blue Jays, 98th, ESPN), Yoeilin Cespedes (Red Sox, 97th, The Athletic) and Jace Jung (Tigers, 97th, Baseball Prospectus) nearly had that honor as well.

Highest on most players: FanGraphs (43)
Some prospect lists have many more player evaluations that buck the industry consensus. For each prospect, we measured which outlet ranked them the highest, and FanGraphs had the most "high" rankings with 43. In fact, that's the highest total since we started measuring these six outlets. MLB Pipeline had the fewest "high" votes with 17 but the most "second-highest" evaluations at 31.