Inbox: Dollander best pitching prospect in Rox history?
This week¡¯s MLB Pipeline Inbox features questions about prospects who are all performing very well right now, all at the upper levels of their respective systems. I mention this only to point out that all of them are getting ever-closer to being big league ready, even though none of them will be September callups in a couple of days.
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Please please please for your inbox: Is Chase Dollander the best pitching prospect in Rockies history? It feels like he¡¯s defendable over Marquez, Gray, Jennings, etc. -- @Blahbla92342524
Blah blah, you don¡¯t have to plead to get your questions answered¡ but I guess it doesn¡¯t hurt. We answered this one on this week¡¯s MLB Pipeline Podcast, so be sure to give that a listen, but this was a fun one to dig into. I actually reached out to some people with good institutional memory of the Rockies, including someone in the front office and our fantastic Rockies beat writer, Thomas Harding. I also got help from our Pipeline research staff (i.e. Jason Ratliff), so I¡¯ll start with looking at where Rockies prospects have ranked historically in our overall rankings:
No. 6 - Jeff Francis (2005)
No. 14 - Jon Gray (2014)
No. 15 - Jon Gray (2014 mid)
No. 16 - Jon Gray (2015)
No. 16 - Franklin Morales (2008)
No. 18 - Chin-Hui Tsao (2004)
No. 23 - Christian Friedrich (2011)
No. 23 - Chase Dollander (2024 mid)
No. 24 - Drew Pomeranz (2012)
Other prospects, not on this list, brought up by Mr. Harding and others, were Kyle Freeland, who topped out at No. 60 on our 2015 preseason Top 100, and Ubaldo Jimenez, who never actually made our list, largely because of injuries on his way up, though the excitement over him once he arrived was palpable.
One thing that gets tricky with a question like this is it¡¯s hard to separate out what kind of prospect buzz a guy had from what he did once he got there. Trying to put aside Major League achievements (Jimenez led this group in bWAR, followed by Friedrich), I think Dollander definitely belongs in the conversation, though I don¡¯t think I¡¯d say he¡¯s definitively the best pitching prospect in their system¡¯s history. His first full season certainly has been a success, especially now that we¡¯ve gotten a look at him in Double-A, but I think there was still a bit more excitement about Francis and Gray. My Rockies sources would put those two, Dollander, Jimenez and maybe Jason Jennings, who was before we started ranking prospects, in that top tier group.
How do Chandler Simpson and Tre¡¯ Morgan look going forward? Are they going to continue to be .330+ hitters at the highest levels? -- @jakelarsen
I didn¡¯t pick this question to give another nod to the podcast, but it¡¯s a nice bonus. We talked to Montgomery Biscuits broadcaster Jack Sadighian about the ridiculous amount of prospects the Rays have at their Double-A affiliate. That includes Chandler Simpson, who now has 90 stolen bases in 99 games, and Tre' Morgan, who has hit his way across three levels in his first full season. Both have at least plus hit tools (Morgan¡¯s a 60; Simpson a 65), so they have a chance to hit for average at the highest level, and Simpson¡¯s speed will always help him avoid any slumps. That said, .330 is a really high bar.
There are currently two hitters in all of Major League Baseball hitting over .330, Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge. There were a total of four at or above that threshold in 2023 and in 2022, no one reached it with Jeff McNeil winning the NL batting title (.326) and Luis Arr¨¢ez won the AL crown by hitting .316. I provide that context to say that I wouldn¡¯t predict anyone to keep hitting above .330 in the big leagues. I do think both Rays hitters have the chance to hit .300, though there are concerns with each about impact. I¡¯ll give Simpson the slight edge because of his wheels.
I have a Rule 5 question for you. I don¡¯t think the Pirates should bring up Nick Yorke right now because I want to save the 40-man spot for a true Major League player acquisition this winter. I don¡¯t think Yorke would be picked in your favorite draft. What say you? -- @ballsandgutters
I almost didn¡¯t answer this because it was accidentally addressed to Jim Callis, but decided it was a worthy query anyway. Yorke is currently the Pirates¡¯ No. 6 prospect after coming to the organization at the Trade Deadline in the Quinn Priester deal. He¡¯s had a very solid year overall offensively and has made a very good first impression in his new organization, posting a .367/.420/.489 line in 25 games. The crux of this question is whether Yorke is worthy of a 40-man roster spot. If he¡¯s not, you wouldn¡¯t call him up (because he¡¯d have to be added to the roster). If he is, then why not bring him up now and see what he can do? If you think the answer is no, then the point in the question is valid. The second part, about whether he¡¯d be taken in the Rule 5 Draft in December, is another matter, and it¡¯s where I¡¯ll disagree with the questioner.
Predicting who will or won¡¯t get taken in the Rule 5 is a fool¡¯s errand, and I should know since I¡¯m often the fool trying to do so. But to me, Yorke is very much the kind of player who would get taken in that draft. He¡¯s at the highest level of the Minors and having success there. He can hit with a solid approach at the plate, rediscovering his ability to manage the strike zone especially well this year, with some pop he¡¯s just learning to tap into. He¡¯s not a burner, but he¡¯s a good baserunner and he¡¯ll be just 23 for all of the 2025 season.
And while it¡¯s unclear where he fits long-term defensively, with his lack of arm strength considered to be limiting him, he¡¯s seen considerable time at second base and left field. He¡¯s also getting reps in center (and a game at third) since the trade and while I haven¡¯t gotten reports on how he¡¯s looked there, it now looks like he¡¯s a guy who can handle the bat and potentially play at least two, if not more, spots, as an offensive-minded utility guy. If I¡¯m a team looking for Rule 5 talent, I¡¯d definitely roll the dice. So if it were me, I¡¯d bring him up now and give him a September audition.
Have you guys ever thought about doing a top 100 hitter and maybe top 50 pitcher lists, along with your normal top 100? -- @Baseballplayaof
We are currently working on creating a Jim Callis AI, so maybe this would be feasible once we get that done. We¡¯re always thinking about different ways to rank guys, so maybe this is something we will take under advisement. Personally, I might want to start with a list of relief pitcher prospects, since I think we undervalue them and don¡¯t talk about them enough, but we¡¯ll talk about this in the offseason.