Inbox: Are dominant prospect hurlers on the rise?
Friday is a huge day in the world of MLB Pipeline -- it¡¯s Top 100 Day! Hopefully, you¡¯ve whetted your appetite with our Top 10 by position lists in advance of Friday's big reveal of the Top 100 prospects at 7 p.m. ET on MLB Network and MLB.com.
In anticipation of that, folks had some good prospect-related questions this week; not just for the MLB Pipeline Inbox, but also for the most recent episode of the MLB Pipeline Podcast, where we talked about the Top 10 lists (and the international signing period with Jesse Borek) and answered a question about which prospects Jim Callis and I underrate. Now let¡¯s see what else you wanted to talk about this week.
Pitchers seem to be rising on these prospect lists. Is pitching just too dominant overall? They all still seem pretty fungible and injury-prone. -- @eYARKulation
It¡¯s an interesting year in terms of pitching prospects. On the one hand, yes, you¡¯re right, pitchers are on the rise and the top of the Top 100 will have more pitchers than usual. The addition of Roki Sasaki helps, but looking at our top lefty and righty lists, it¡¯s not hard to suss out who the elite guys are. So don¡¯t be surprised to see Sasaki, Jackson Jobe, Andrew Painter, Bubba Chandler and Noah Schultz all congregating near the very top.
But there¡¯s a flip side to that coin. While the right-handed pitching list overall is still very solid, the 19 total on the Top 100 is the lowest number we¡¯ve had since switching from 50 to 100 names in 2012. There are five lefties, which isn¡¯t an all-time low (there were four in 2023), but it does follow a trend of single-digit southpaws that started in 2022. The 24 total pitchers on the list comprise not only the smallest total in the ¡°Top 100 era,¡± it¡¯s the lowest percentage of arms on a list since we started ranking prospects back in 2004.
So, yes, there is perhaps a larger collection of pitchers floating to the top, but there are fewer overall being ranked, at least by us. Perhaps they¡¯re connected: because of the question marks about pitching development you mention, there¡¯s more caution overall, which in turn makes the truly elite ones with the highest ceilings stand out more.
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How did Zyhir Hope jump from a virtual nobody to the Dodgers No. 1 prospect and a top-10 prospect in baseball? He did virtually nothing different and is now considered one of the top prospects in baseball. -- @DJKeenstar
While it¡¯s true Hope has made a huge jump, going from No. 21 on our Dodgers Top 30 list prior to the start of the 2024 season to someone (spoiler alert) who will be on our Top 100, I¡¯d refute your claims that he was a ¡°virtual nobody¡± or that he ¡°did virtually nothing different.¡± Hope was a known prospect heading into the 2023 Draft who slid to Day 3, but got fifth-round money from the Cubs ($400,000) to sign him away from his commitment to North Carolina and was wanted by the Dodgers in the Michael Busch trade. He didn¡¯t play much during his summer debut, a reason why he was a little under the radar. But then he went to full-season ball at age 19 following the trade and posted a .905 OPS and 144 wRC+. That was while dealing with a stress fracture in his rib that forced him to miss nearly three months.
To make up for some of those lost at-bats, he went to the Arizona Fall League, and while his surface numbers may not jump off the page, he was perhaps the most exciting prospect (and one of the youngest) on the circuit. He¡¯s gotten stronger, he has an excellent approach at the plate with ridiculous raw power, he runs and throws well. So we¡¯re looking at a five-tool player (all at least above-average) who knows how to use them and he'll likely be in High-A at 20 years old for all of the 2025 season. It¡¯s hard not to be excited about him.
Who turns out better, Matt Shaw or Cam Smith? -- @ccassutt
This would have been a fun one to watch unfold in the Cubs organization, no? It¡¯s still interesting to contemplate even with Smith now an Astro following the Kyle Tucker trade. The pair are Nos. 2 and 3 on the Top 10 3B list, and while we¡¯re going to see Shaw first in the big leagues, it might not take too long to be able to start comparing performances at the highest level. Interestingly, we might not see them both at third long term, with Shaw perhaps a better fit at second and Smith at first or an outfield corner. Wherever they play, I do think both will be very productive offensive players. If I had to pick now, and I do since I chose the question to ask, I¡¯ll give the edge to Shaw. He has a better set of all-around tools, with the chance to be a better all-around hitter with the same amount of power and more speed.
What happened to Colson Montgomery? He was not part of the Top 10 SS. -- @bobmoldova.bsky.social?
Don¡¯t worry too much. Montgomery isn¡¯t too far off from that Top 10 list, but I understand the concern considering the White Sox shortstop was No. 2 on that list a year ago. We¡¯re still very high on him and he¡¯ll be just 23 for all of the upcoming season, but his struggles at the upper levels of Chicago¡¯s system late in 2023 and for all of '24 at Triple-A led to him moving down the overall Top 100 a bit. His approach had regressed some and his chase rate went way up, though he looked better during his two-week stint in the Arizona Fall League. If that helps him hit the reset button, he could move back into that Top 10 shortstop group, though he might graduate to the big leagues and off prospect rankings this season.