Inbox: Is Red Sox's Campbell's rise unprecedented?
Jim Callis
@JimCallisMLBHappy Valentine's Day. A lot of you would love to know when our organization Top 30 Prospects list will debut, and I will tell you: March 3 for the East divisions, March 4 for the Central divisions and March 5 for the West divisions. And then MLB will unveil the Spring Breakout rosters on March 6.
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On to your questions ...
Thanks to my MLB.com teammate Jason Catania for this question, which I have pondered for a while and discussed with several executives and scouts. We could never come up with a good answer, so Jason's query prodded me to do some research.
Campbell went from the supplemental fourth round (No. 132 overall) of the 2023 Draft to the No. 7 ranking on our Top 100 Prospects list after his first full pro season. And what a first full pro season it was! He batted .330/.439/.558 with 20 homers and 24 steals in 115 games while climbing from High-A to Triple-A in 2024, leading the Minors in wRC+ (180) while ranking second in on-base percentage and OPS (.997), fourth in hitting and fifth in runs (94).
MLB.com created a Top 50 Prospects list in 2004 and expanded to a Top 100 in 2012. Before that, I began working on Top 100s as far back as 1990 at Baseball America. After combing through all those rankings, I found that there never has been a player drafted outside of the top three rounds on merit who ascended to Top 10 status after his first full year as a pro.
The Braves drafted Ryan Klesko in 1989's fifth round out of a California high school and he ranked No. 3 on BA's Top 100 entering 1991. But he dropped because of signability issues and his $110,000 bonus (late first-round money back then) better reflected his talent.
The closest parallel to Campbell is Brandon Belt. Questions about his power at Texas landed him in 2009's fifth round, but he jumped to No. 26 on MLB's 2011 Top 50 after adjusting his batting stance, slashing .352/.455/.620 and advancing from High-A to Triple-A while leading the Minors in batting and OPS. That improvement was legit, as Belt played 13 seasons in the Majors with one All-Star Game berth and two World Series rings.
The next-best loose analog to Campbell is Jeff Bagwell, who batted .413 and set a school record with 31 homers in three years at Hartford but had some questions about his athleticism and defense. A 1989 fourth-rounder, he posted huge numbers (.333/.422/.457) in a notorious hitter's graveyard at Double-A New Britain in 1990 but the Red Sox regretfully traded him to the Astros for Larry Andersen that August. Bagwell ranked No. 32 on BA's 1991 Top 100 before launching a Hall of Fame career by winning the National League Rookie of the Year award.
It will be hard to ever beat Albert Pujols' rise from obscurity to almost immediate superstardom, however. He moved from the Dominican Republic to New York and then Missouri at age 16, graduated early from high school and enrolled at Maple Woods (Mo.) CC, where he hit a grand slam off Mark Buehrle in his first game. Though Pujols raked for the Wolves, there were questions about factors like his conditioning and quickness, so he lasted until the 13th round in 1999 and signed for $60,000.
In his first year in pro ball, Pujols won MVP awards for the then-Single-A Midwest League regular season and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League playoffs before starring in the Arizona Fall League. We hedged our bets at BA by ranking him No. 42 on the 2001 Top 100, then watched him become one of the best right-handed hitters in baseball history.
Circling back to Campbell, we didn't play it safe by jumping him up to No. 7 on the Top 100. When we were getting external feedback for the list, multiple organizations told us they thought he was the best prospect in baseball. While his rise is shocking, the reasons behind it are real.
It sounds a lot simpler than it is to actually accomplish, but the Red Sox put Campbell on a program to improve his strength and bat speed while changing his bat path and approach to do more damage. Those type of changes almost never work this quickly and dramatically, but his outstanding hand-eye coordination and work ethic made him an exception. His underlying data supports his growth and improved throughout 2024, so not only do Campbell's gains seem sustainable but there may be more to come if he can cut his chase rate a bit and hit more balls in the air.
Which non-Top 100 prospects who played in the Dominican Summer League last year are you most excited to see play Stateside this year? -- Paul P., Boston
Because I may have just broken the record for longest response to an Inbox question, I'm going to limit myself to just five names here. And I can't include the much-anticipated U.S. debut of Brewers shortstop Jesus Made because he ranks No. 56 on the Top 100.
The player who has piqued my curiosity the most -- perhaps because I just wrote his upcoming Red Sox Top 30 report -- is first baseman/outfielder Justin Gonzales. Signed for just $250,000 out of the Dominican Republic in January 2024, he broke into pro ball by hitting .320/.391/.517 with 20 extra-base hits and eight steals in 47 DSL games. He already has plus raw power with more to come, posted a very promising combination of non-chase and contact rates and exit velocities, and has surprising athleticism for someone who's bigger than his listed 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds.
Four more ... Arnaldo Lantigua fits the right-field profile with his power (second in the DSL with 11 homers) and arm strength, and he went from the Dodgers to the Reds last month in exchange for international bonus pool money. Angels shortstop Joswa Lugo, Dawel's younger brother, has more physicality and power than most at his position.
The same is true of Dodgers shortstop Emil Morales, who led the DSL in slugging (.691), OPS (1.169), homers (14) and total bases (105). The Cardinals' Rainiel Rodriguez is an offensive-minded catcher (.345/.462/.683) with big raw power who will have to prove he can stay behind the plate.
College baseball season starts today, so the Draft is very much on my mind. Arizona State outfielder Brandon Compton (No. 54 on our Draft Top 100) slashed .354/.427/.661 as a redshirt freshman last spring and has mashed with wood bats in the Northwoods and Cape Cod leagues in two seasons of summer ball. He's similar to former Florida State outfielder James Tibbs, who went 13th overall to the Giants last July, with a little less patience at the plate.
Dallas Baptist right-hander James Ellwanger (No. 61) will surge up Draft boards if he stays healthy and throws enough strikes. His fastball hit 99 mph in his college debut last February but he missed most of March and April with a flexor strain in his elbow. He can sit in the mid-90s with carry and run on his heater, with a mid-80s slider serving as his best secondary offering.