What to expect from Braves top prospect Baldwin in the big leagues

No team ever wants to head into a new season with its starting catcher on the shelf, especially one who is a former All-Star and Gold Glove Award winner like Sean Murphy.

Luckily for the Braves, they have top prospect Drake Baldwin ready, willing and able to step in until the veteran returns from his broken rib. It might only be a short-term gig -- it doesn¡¯t sound like Murphy should worry about being Wally Pipped -- but at some point the Braves will have a decision to make. Baldwin is ready for the big leagues and Murphy is signed at least through 2028. For now, though, they can rest assured that the position is in capable hands over the next couple of weeks and there¡¯s no reason for the veteran to rush back.

It¡¯s always a good sign when veteran pitchers extol the defensive virtues of a new batterymate, especially when he¡¯s yet to play a regular season game in the big leagues and previously had a reputation for his bat being ahead of his glove. But when Chris Sale says, ¡°There¡¯s no question he¡¯s ready for it,¡± and Spencer Strider comments that he ¡°loves throwing to him,¡± it¡¯s a testament to how much work Baldwin -- a 2022 third-round pick out of Missouri State -- has put in behind the dish.

He¡¯s always had arm strength, but his release has become quicker and his accuracy has improved. His receiving and blocking have also taken steps forward, as has his framing down in the zone. He¡¯s long provided the leadership qualities teams covet at the premium position, and anyone who has spent any time with him will immediately see the traits that suits someone in terms of working with the varying personalities of an entire pitching staff. Both Sale and Strider mentioned his demeanor, his character and his communication skills.

When you combine that with his also-evolving offensive profile, it¡¯s easy to see how he¡¯s gone from being a ¡°future backup¡± to a probable starter in the big leagues. He¡¯s always had a very advanced approach at the plate, something that will serve him well during his debut. He¡¯s walked in 13.9 percent of his plate appearances as a pro, and it¡¯s not like he regressed at the upper levels (13.1 percent BB rate in 2024). The left-handed hitter even lowered his strikeout rate a bit in 2024, down to just 17.2 percent. He¡¯s going to see pitches, he¡¯s going to make a lot of contact (20 percent miss rate in the Minors last year, according to Synergy) and he¡¯s going to hit the ball hard.

That was particularly apparent when he moved to Triple-A last year. He made some mechanical adjustments at the plate, ¡°standing a bit taller on my backside,¡± as Baldwin put it during his stint in the Arizona Fall League last year. His walk rate jumped with Gwinnett as well, from 9.2 percent to 15.6, as he was making even better swing decisions. That resulted in an impressive .298/.407/.484 line over 72 games at the Minors¡¯ highest level.

The data underneath that is even better. He topped all Triple-A catchers (min. 1,000 pitches seen) with a 93.1 mph average exit velocity and 51.9 percent hard-hit rate. There wasn¡¯t a single Major league catcher with a hard-hit rate higher than 50.0 percent in 2024 under the same time constraints.

Swinging at good pitches and hitting the ball hard points to a very solid future offensively. He¡¯s the kind of hitter who knows he has power and knows he can get to it without selling out for it. Braves fans should be excited to see what he can do during his short-term stint as the starting catcher, though it¡¯ll be too small of a sample to draw too many conclusions. Regardless of his production in these opening weeks, knowing the all-important catching position is in safe hands with or without Murphy, should be very comforting.