Reasons to believe in 5 free agents who underperformed in '24

November 29th, 2024

While many free agents absolutely aced their walk years in 2024, others were not so fortunate.

For every player who boosted their market value with a standout season, there were those whose struggles or injuries dampened their stock.

Though not ideal for the player¡¯s bottom line, a poor platform season can present an opportunity for a savvy team to uncover a hidden gem in free agency and reap the rewards of a rebound.

With this in mind, here are five free agents who offer intriguing upside despite underperforming in 2024.

What happened in 2024: After missing part of 2022 and all of 2023 while recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, Buehler returned in May and went on to post a 5.38 ERA over 16 starts, spending time on the IL with right hip inflammation along the way. He finished with a 19.4% whiff rate, a 24.5% chase rate, an 18.6% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate, all of which were considerably worse than his marks in 2021, his last healthy season.

Reasons for optimism: Buehler¡¯s track record is perhaps the biggest reason teams will be willing to overlook his 2024 struggles as they pursue him in free agency. Simply put, there aren¡¯t many pitchers available who have been as good as Buehler was at his best. But we don¡¯t have to look all the way back to 2021 to find something positive to say about the 30-year-old, who boosted his stock with a strong performance under the bright lights of October. Buehler threw 10 straight scoreless innings with 13 K's over his final three postseason games, including a perfect frame to close out the Dodgers¡¯ World Series title. Although it wasn¡¯t a large sample, the righty made some encouraging strides with his arsenal in the playoffs, adding more ¡°rise¡± to his four-seamer, sharpening up his knuckle-curve and showing glimpses of a nasty sweeper, as MLB.com¡¯s David Adler recently detailed.

What happened in 2024: Kepler battled injuries and finished the season with just eight homers and a .682 OPS (91 OPS+) over 105 games, as his barrel rate (6.2%) and hard-hit rate (36.8%) both plummeted from his career-high marks in 2023 (12.2% barrel rate, 47.9% hard-hit rate).

Reasons for optimism: If Kepler hit the free-agent market last offseason, he would have been one of the top corner outfielders available. Now, he might be flying under the radar in a market that features Juan Soto, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hern¨¢ndez, Tyler O¡¯Neill and Jurickson Profar. The 31-year-old Kepler is a plus defender in right field, leading the position by a wide margin in Outs Above Average (+27) over the past four years. He also has six seasons on his r¨¦sum¨¦ with at least 17 homers, including 24 dingers as recently as 2023, when he ranked in the 89th percentile in expected SLG (.503).

What happened in 2024: Martinez had an uneven season with the Mets after lingering on the free-agent market until late March and spending several weeks ramping up against Minor League pitching. The veteran DH ended up with just 16 homers and a .406 slugging percentage, his lowest in a non-shortened season since 2013 (.378).

Reasons for optimism: Martinez may be 37, but he isn¡¯t far removed from ranking among baseball¡¯s most productive power bats. He finished 2023 with 33 homers over 113 games for the Dodgers, notching the eighth-highest slugging percentage (.572) among hitters with at least 450 plate appearances. While Martinez certainly showed signs of decline in 2024, his underlying metrics suggest he still has some pop left in his bat. The right-handed slugger ended 2024 with a 14.9% barrel rate, a 39.3% sweet-spot rate and a .472 expected SLG, placing in the 87th percentile or higher in all three metrics. Martinez was also on track for a much better season before going into a dreadful slump (6-for-59, 0 HR) over his final 17 games. He had a .785 OPS over 103 games prior to that season-ending cold spell.

What happened in 2024: Looking to address their long-standing woes at second base, the Mariners swung an offseason trade with the Twins for Polanco. However, the veteran sharply regressed, hitting just .213 with a .651 OPS over 118 games while striking out in 29.2% of his plate appearances (a career worst). Seattle declined his $12 million club option at the end of the year, making him a free agent.

Reasons for optimism: Polanco rediscovered his power stroke in the second half of the season, more closely resembling the player who produced 89 homers with a .796 OPS (117 OPS+) over 544 games for the Twins from 2019-23. The second baseman went deep 11 times and had a .203 ISO over his final 55 games. Further improvement could be on the horizon as Polanco moves on from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park in Seattle, where he slashed .193/.284/.322 with a 31.9% K-rate in 2024.

What happened in 2024: Torres experienced a curious decline in his age-27 season, producing just 15 homers with a .709 OPS -- barely north of league average (101 OPS+) -- over 154 games. The second baseman¡¯s hard-hit rate dropped nearly five points to 35.4%, and his strikeout rate climbed back over 20% after tumbling to a career-best 14.6% in 2023.

Reasons for optimism: Torres has never returned to the lofty heights of his breakout 2019 season, when he swatted 38 homers with an .871 OPS (128 OPS+), but he was one of the most powerful players at his position across 2022-23. He went deep 49 times in that span, ranking second among primary second basemen. Although he had a disappointing 2024 season on the whole, Torres excelled after moving to the leadoff spot in mid-August, slashing .294/.375/.439 with a 40.4% hard-hit rate, a 15.8% strikeout rate and an 11.9% walk rate over his final 53 games (postseason included). One of the youngest free agents on the market, Torres is a good bet to improve in 2025.

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