7 free agents who are better than you think

2:51 AM UTC

As we near the midpoint of January, 10 of this offseason¡¯s top 25 free agents -- as ranked by MLB.com senior national reporter Mark Feinsand -- are still available.

But for teams that continue to search for roster upgrades, the options go much deeper than that. Some less heralded free agents will almost certainly make big contributions in 2025.

To help evaluate the talent remaining on the market, beyond the biggest names, we asked seven MLB.com writers to each pick one unsigned free agent who didn¡¯t make the list above, and explain why that player could perform better than you might think for their next team.

OF
It's easy to overlook Hays given how his 2024 season ended. Acquired ahead of the Trade Deadline by the Phillies, Hays was expected to step into an everyday role for a Philadelphia team that was poised to make a deep postseason run as the National League's top seed.

Instead, he sustained a strained left hamstring in just his 10th game with the Phils. Hays spent two weeks on the injured list before returning to the lineup, only to be sidelined less than two weeks later with a kidney infection. That put him on the shelf for the majority of September -- and despite returning late in the season, he never regained his timing.

Hays also missed a month earlier in the season with a strained left calf. Put it all together and he was limited to just 85 games between the O's and Phillies, during which he posted a .699 OPS and -0.1 bWAR. But this is still the same guy who was an All-Star in 2023 and averaged 18 homers and 2.7 bWAR from 2021-23.

Now fully healthy and still just 29 years old on Opening Day, Hays will be eager to put his injury-riddled 2024 campaign behind him. -- Paul Casella

DH
Martinez is a 37-year-old full-time designated hitter coming off a .726 OPS -- his lowest mark in a non-shortened season since 2013 -- so it¡¯s not exactly surprising that he remains available. There are signs, though, that the right-hander slugger still has big-time pop left in his bat.

Even in a down season, Martinez ranked in the 94th percentile in barrel rate (14.9%), the 92nd percentile in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (39.3%) and the 87th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.472). That included a .470 xSLG against fastballs (four-seamers/sinkers) thrown 95 mph or faster, suggesting he still possesses the bat speed to handle high-end velocity. And let¡¯s not forget what Martinez accomplished as recently as 2023, producing 33 homers, 103 RBIs, a .572 SLG and a 135 wRC+ over 113 games for the Dodgers. For those reasons, Martinez remains an intriguing option for clubs looking to add more power to their lineups. -- Thomas Harrigan

SP
Perhaps it¡¯s no surprise that Pivetta has not signed yet, given that he declined a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. If another team signs Pivetta, it will have to surrender a Draft pick to do so, a potentially difficult pill to swallow for a pitcher who will turn 32 in February and has never produced a 3-WAR season.

But it¡¯s not unreasonable to think that there is still untapped upside here. Pivetta ranked in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate and the 80th percentile in walk rate in 2024, making him one of only 11 starting pitchers to reach at least the 80th percentile in both. While his actual ERA was 4.14, his expected ERA, per Statcast, was a stellar 3.51. (Two of the most highly-touted free agents, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, had xERAs of 3.34 and 3.72, respectively.)

But most intriguing of all is Pivetta¡¯s arsenal, which primarily features a four-seamer, sweeper and curveball. Stuff+, a metric that evaluates the physical characteristics of a pitch, ranked Pivetta No. 1 overall in 2024, among pitchers with 100-plus innings. There is, of course, more to pitching than raw stuff, and it¡¯s hard to square that number with Pivetta¡¯s relatively mundane results. With that said, it wouldn¡¯t be surprising if a team willing to take a shot on Pivetta winds up reaping the rewards. -- Andrew Simon

OF
You might not realize it, but Winker's been a consistently productive hitter for a pretty long time. If you throw out his 2023 season with the Brewers, when he came back at less than 100% from back and knee surgeries and was miserable, he's been an above-average offensive player every season. Winker's wRC+ numbers for every other year from 2017 through 2024: 134, 127, 111, 142, 148, 110, 118. That 118 wRC+ in 2024 means Winker was 18% better than an average hitter, and it's right around his career mark (121). That's a valuable bat.

Winker is a patient hitter with good plate discipline. In 2024, he ranked in the 96th percentile of MLB in chase rate (just 19%) and in the 78th percentile in swing-and-miss rate (19.6%). He walks a ton (12.4% walk rate, sixth-highest among qualified hitters) and doesn't strike out very often. And he's an effective platoon bat against right-handed pitching -- Winker had a 124 wRC+ versus righties in 2024 (aka he was 24% better than an average hitter), and he has a 129 wRC+ versus righties for his career. Oh, and then there was his playoff run for the Mets, where Winker had a big triple against the Brewers and a big home run off the Phillies' Aaron Nola. He's the type of depth piece it feels like contending teams always have. -- David Adler

OF
Verdugo is coming off the worst full season of his career at the plate -- he hit .233/.291/.356 in his lone year with the Yankees after producing a .283/.338/.432 slash line from 2019-23. The 28-year-old outfielder actually started the season closer to his career norms. Through June 18, he had a .741 OPS with nine home runs. He struggled to a .206/.268/.292 line with four homers the rest of the way.

But you can often tell whether a player is a strong candidate for a bounce-back campaign by the level of interest he draws on the free-agent market despite a down year. That is certainly the case with Verdugo, who is reportedly garnering interest from several clubs, including the incumbent Yankees along with the Mets, Pirates and Blue Jays.

They might be considering his quality of contact metrics, which weren¡¯t as bad as his actual numbers would suggest -- Verdugo¡¯s expected batting average (.250) was 17 points above his actual figure, and his squared-up rate (33.4%) was in the 96th percentile among qualified batters.

Add to that his low strikeout rate (15%, 88th percentile) and low whiff rate (15.5%, 93rd percentile) -- each better than the prior season -- and you can certainly see how a rebound in 2025 could be on the way.

Another component to Verdugo¡¯s value despite a down year offensively is his defense, which wasn't hindered by his struggles at the plate -- he had seven defensive runs saved and ranked in the 94th percentile with an average arm strength of 92.1 mph. -- Manny Randhawa

OF
Grichuk is an 11-year veteran who offers below-average defense, mediocre baserunning and a flawed offensive profile. And yet, there is real value here if a team accentuates Grichuk¡¯s one standout skill: mashing left-handed pitching. The D-backs made good use of it in 2024.

Grichuk had just 254 at-bats in a relatively healthy season with Arizona, but that¡¯s because he spent the year on the weak side of a platoon with the left-handed-hitting Joc Pederson. Nearly two-thirds of Grichuk¡¯s at-bats came against lefties, and he responded with a .319/.386/.528 slash line and 21 extra-base hits in 163 ABs. His .914 OPS was seventh-best among hitters with at least 100 at-bats against left-handers. The six players in front of Grichuk were Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez, Ketel Marte, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Juan Soto and Teoscar Hern¨¢ndez.

This dominance versus southpaws is nothing new; Grichuk has been one of baseball's best against lefties since 2022. Over those three years, he has slashed .318/.366/.575. That slugging percentage ranks fifth in MLB, trailing only Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Austin Riley and William Contreras among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances versus left-handers. Grichuk owns a 51.6% hard-hit rate, and his expected batting average, expected slugging and expected wOBA all rank inside the top 15.

Overall, Grichuk posted a 140 OPS+ and 2.2 bWAR through 106 games with the D-backs. There are many things he doesn¡¯t do well on the diamond. That includes hitting right-handed pitching with authority (.239/.286/.388 slash line since ¡®22). But he does one thing exceptionally well, and some club looking for right-handed pop should be able to find value in that. -- Brian Murphy

2B
Last season did not go to plan for Polanco or the Mariners, who acquired him from the Twins almost exactly a year ago with the hope that he¡¯d fill their longtime hole at second base. After starting slowly and suffering a right hamstring strain that kept him out from late May to late June, Polanco finished with a slash line of .213/.296/.355 (93 OPS+), his worst in a non-shorted season since 2017, which was his first full season in the Majors. It wasn¡¯t surprising then when the Mariners cut bait, choosing to buy him out instead of picking up a $12 million option for 2025.

That said, with the switch-hitter entering his age-31 campaign, Polanco¡¯s still young enough for a bounce-back season, and he showed signs of being a capable bat as last year progressed. In the second half, he posted a more credible .740 OPS and hit 11 of his 16 total homers.

Another consideration in Polanco¡¯s favor here? T-Mobile Park is a notorious pitcher¡¯s paradise, with a rolling three-year park factor of 91 that is far and away the lowest in MLB. Polanco¡¯s splits (.606 OPS at home; .694 on the road) offer another example of how that stadium can drag down a hitter¡¯s production. (Remember Teoscar Hern¨¢ndez¡¯s 2023?)

Even with Polanco¡¯s difficult ¡¯24 and his struggles in the shortened 2020 season, he has registered a 113 OPS+ since his breakout All-Star showing in 2019. That seems like an attainable mark if he lands in the right situation. Considering the slim remaining free-agent options at second base, Polanco provides more upside than most. -- Jason Catania

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