When dealing in small sample sizes, there¡¯s an air of unpredictability around which players will stand out.
It happens at the beginning of every season, and it can happen in limited batter-pitcher and player-team matchups that cover multiple years.
Established stars often find their way to the top of league leaderboards, but less-heralded players grab attention with eye-popping early numbers that suggest a sustained breakout could be coming.
As we examine five series to watch this week, we¡¯ll look at the stars and possible future stars who have showcased excellence in small samples.
Giants at Phillies
4 games (Monday-Thursday)
Head to head: The Phillies went 5-2 against the Giants in 2024, taking the first four at Citizens Bank Park before the Giants won 2 of 3 in San Francisco. This 138-year-old rivalry has featured 2,249 games, including the postseason. The Giants have won 1,286 of them.
Storyline: The Giants rank fourth in MLB in ERA and the Phillies are fifth. Both are off to hot starts in divisions, the National League East and the NL West, that could include at least three contenders apiece. Wednesday¡¯s showdown between former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray and Philadelphia¡¯s Aaron Nola is the highlighted pitching matchup of the series.
Watch out for: Philadelphia¡¯s heavy hitters continuing their damage against the Giants. Kyle Schwarber is slugging .690 with eight home runs in 71 career at-bats against the Giants, and Bryce Harper has eight homers in 108 at-bats against San Francisco. Giants 25-year-old reliever Randy Rodriguez is in the 100th percentile in fastball spin rate, the 99th percentile in strikeout rate and the 96th percentile in walk rate through seven 2025 appearances.
Royals at Yankees
3 games (Monday-Wednesday)
Head to head: The Yankees went 5-2 against the Royals during the 2024 regular season, then beat Kansas City in the Division Series in four games. The Royals last won the season series in 2014.
Storyline: A playoff rematch between the second-best offense by runs scored, the Yankees, and a Royals pitching staff that leads the AL in ERA. And the top two finishers in last year¡¯s AL MVP voting, Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt, square off to perhaps get a leg up on the 2025 race.
Watch out for: Royals catcher Salvador Perez¡¯s 16 home runs against the Yankees are tied for his most against a non-AL Central opponent, with Boston. Judge has 13 home runs in 140 career at-bats against the Royals. KC infielder Michael Massey has four homers in 22 career at-bats in the Bronx, and Yankees first baseman Ben Rice is lighting up the league with elite exit velocities, hard-hit rate and bat speed.
Tigers at Brewers
3 games (Monday-Wednesday)
Head to head: The former American League foes have been in separate leagues for 27 years and haven¡¯t played more than four times in a season since 1997. Milwaukee took two of three in Detroit last season in a series that included scores of 10-2, 5-4 and 10-0.
Storyline: Two teams that made the playoffs in 2024 look to build upon those seasons in spite of uncertainties. For Detroit, it¡¯s whether the Tigers¡¯ young players continue to blossom. For the Brewers, it¡¯s whether they can sustain their competitiveness after injuries to numerous projected rotation arms.
Watch out for: Milwaukee¡¯s Christian Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP, has a .963 career OPS and four home runs in 53 career at-bats against the Tigers. Detroit¡¯s Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 pick in the 2020 Draft, is showing signs of that impressive pedigree. Torkelson ranks in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage and batting run value.
Angels at Rangers
3 games (Tuesday-Thursday)
Head to head: It¡¯s the first series of 2025 between the top two teams, so far, in the AL West. Last year, Texas won the final five games of the series and took 9 of 13 overall. The Rangers have taken the season series seven of the last nine years.
Storyline: The Angels, who haven¡¯t finished above .500 since 2015, are one of the early surprises in baseball. They¡¯re tied with the Yankees for the AL lead in home runs and they trail only the Yankees and Red Sox in runs. Texas hasn¡¯t gotten its offense going to the same degree, but its starting pitchers own a 3.44 ERA, fifth best in the AL.
Watch out for: Mike Trout continuing to be Mike Trout ¨C he's tied with Judge (and Tyler Soderstrom) for the AL lead with six home runs, and how fun would it be to watch those two battle for the home run crown all summer? Trout has 44 homers and a 1.054 career OPS against Texas. On the small-sample side, 23-year-old Angels outfielder Kyren Paris carries a .400 average and .914 slugging percentage through his first 35 at-bats.
Diamondbacks at Cubs
3 games (Friday-Sunday)
Head to head: The teams split a four game series in Arizona in March. They have played almost even over the last decade-plus, with the Cubs winning 35 of 69 games since 2014.
Storyline: The Diamondbacks missed the 2024 playoffs by a single game, and the Cubs were the next team out. While strong starts from the Giants, Dodgers and Padres have Arizona fighting to keep pace in the NL West, the Cubs are atop the NL Central while leading baseball in runs scored.
Watch out for: Arizona phenom Corbin Carroll is seventh in average exit velocity, and just eight spots below him is fellow Diamondbacks outfielder Pavin Smith, who hasn¡¯t had a season of more than 245 at-bats since 2021. Smith has put 20 balls in play, and 12 of them came off the bat at 95 mph or better. For the Cubs, Seiya Suzuki and Kyle Tucker have combined for 41 hits and 33 RBIs over the first 17 games.