Mapping possible post-Bregman landscapes

December 3rd, 2024

This story was excerpted from Brian McTaggart's Astros Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

HOUSTON -- The wait for a decision on where free-agent third baseman will play in 2025 continues with the MLB Winter Meetings now less than a week away. The Astros, like many teams, have yet to make any significant moves in the free-agent and trade market, but things figure to heat up when the teams hit Dallas on Monday.

The Astros¡¯ needs are obvious: third base, first base, starting pitching and relief pitching. That¡¯s typically more holes they¡¯ve had to fill in past winters, but the Bregman decision looms above everything else. If they¡¯re able to re-sign him -- and it likely will take a team-record deal to get it done -- any remaining upgrades likely wouldn¡¯t be significant.

If the Astros are unable to re-sign Bregman, they will still be in position to make a splash at either first base or third base, but probably not both.

So let¡¯s take a look at some options for Houston at third base if Bregman signs elsewhere:

Make a trade
The big names on the third-base trade market are Alec Bohm of the Phillies and Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals, neither of whom would come cheaply. Would the Astros have the quality prospect depth to make an impact deal?

Arenado has three years and $74 million remaining on his contract, along with a full no-trade clause. So he will control his destiny if St. Louis wants to trade him.

An All-Star in 2024, Bohm struggled late in the season and was benched in Game 2 of the NLDS. But there are a lot of reasons for a team to want him in a trade -- namely, his offensive upside and solid defense at the hot corner.

Other third basemen who could be on the trade market are Ryan McMahon of the Rockies and Brett Baty of the Mets.

Sign a free agent
Bregman is the class of the third-base free-agent market, which drops off significantly after him. Many of the available free agents profile more as utility players than everyday third basemen. That group includes Josh Rojas (a former Astros farmhand), Paul DeJong, Brandon Drury and Kik¨¦ Hern¨¢ndez.

An option that the Astros are still considering is Jorge Polanco, who has played mostly middle infield in the big leagues but could play the corner spots in Houston. A switch-hitter who hit for a career-low .651 OPS in 118 games with the Mariners last season, Polanco finished on the upswing. He posted a .724 OPS ins 63 games from July 9 to season¡¯s end, with 11 of his 16 total home runs. He is coming off surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee.

Free-agent shortstop Willy Adames, who received a qualifying offer from the Brewers, has been linked to the Astros, who would presumably play him at third base. (Jeremy Pe?a is entrenched as the starter at shortstop). Adames received National League MVP votes after posting a slash line of .251/.331/.462 last season with 32 homers, 112 RBIs and 21 steals.

Fill internally
This would definitely be the least-satisfying outcome for the Astros, considering Mauricio Dub¨®n is the only in-house option they would feel comfortable with to start the season. Dub¨®n started games at seven positions last season, including nine at third base.

Ideally, the Astros would like to keep Dub¨®n in the super-utility role at which he has excelled the past couple of seasons. In 2024, he became the first Astros player to start at seven defensive positions in one season -- all but catcher and pitcher.

Zach Dezenzo, ranked by MLB Pipeline as the club¡¯s No. 5 prospect, made his Major League debut last season and is playing mostly first base and left field in winter ball in Puerto Rico. No. 3 prospect Brice Matthews, who reached Triple-A last season, has split time between second base and third base in Puerto Rico and has a .589 OPS. He¡¯s likely not an option for the Opening Day roster.

Then there¡¯s third baseman Shay Whitcomb, the club¡¯s No. 14 prospect. He also made his Major League debut last season. He was named the club¡¯s Minor League Player of the Year in 2024 after hitting .293 in 108 games with Triple-A Sugar Land, with 25 home runs, 91 RBIs, 26 stolen bases and a .908 OPS. Whitcomb was 9-for-41 in 20 games with the Astros and was optioned to the Minors after making four errors at third base in a game against the Mariners on Sept. 25.

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