Witt over Ohtani at No. 1? The case for a bold fantasy draft strategy
The draft randomizer handed me the No. 1 pick in the LABR mixed league draft Tuesday night, and I didn't have any hesitation. But with the entire baseball universe available to me -- including reigning MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge -- I went in what some might consider an unconventional direction. I selected Bobby Witt Jr.
This isn't meant to be a hot-take thing or a look-at-me pick. And I don't fault anyone who would pick Ohtani or Judge in this spot (note, all of my Yahoo colleagues currently rank Ohtani first). It's a matter of trying to take Wayne Gretzky's advice -- I'm not skating to where the puck has been, I'm skating to where the puck is headed.
The case against taking Ohtani No. 1 in fantasy drafts
A chunk of the pick-Witt exercise invariably turns into a mild talking down of Ohtani -- this piece is as much about why I'm not taking Ohtani as it is why I am taking Witt. I take no joy in nitpicking Ohtani. He's the unicorn of baseball, a player no living person has a comparison for. Ohtani was easily the most valuable player in fantasy last season, courtesy of that absurd .310, 54 homers, 134 RBIs and 59 steals.
Let's focus on that final column for Ohtani, the 59 steals. It's incongruent with the rest of his career. Starting in 2018, here are the yearly steal counts for Showtime: 10-12-7-26-11-20 (the seven steals came in the pandemic season). And then last year, we saw the 59-bag explosion.
I suspect Ohtani upped his steal interest last year because registering a 50-50 season became a tangible goal. Through 101 games, he was sitting on 24 swipes, a solid total, clearly headed for a new career high. And then in his final 58 games, he stole a ridiculous 35 bags -- on 35 attempts, which is equally ridiculous. There was a destination in mind, a new plateau to shoot for.
Alas, stealing bases is a physical drain on the body. And even while it's a plus play for a high-percentage thief like Ohtani, it's not always the practical thing to do, long term. While Ohtani was running wild, most of his veteran teammates were picking their spots to run. Mookie Betts settled for a modest 16 steals on 18 attempts. Freddie Freeman moved down to nine bags, after 23 steals the previous year. It's not that players like this can't steal bases. It's that they don't think it's always worth the physical wear and tear.
Let's accept that the loaded Dodgers are basically in the 2025 playoffs already, like Duke is already in the men's basketball tournament or Scottie Scheffler has effectively already made the weekend at the Masters. This franchise has made the playoffs 12 straight years, with 11 division titles. The 2025 roster is probably the deepest one it's ever had. Los Angeles has the luxury of planning for October even when it's months away -- and that means being prudent with player injuries and workloads. I suspect that will be an invisible hand that encourages Ohtani to run less.
Ohtani is also scheduled to pitch this year, which is another tax on his body. Maybe it means he has more overall injury risk. Perhaps the shift back to the mound means he has to give up a less important part of his game, like the basestealing. Mix it all together and I suspect Ohtani's steals could easily land back in the 20-30 range, and the workload of pitching also makes me an eyelash concerned about what his offense might look like.
Ohtani was a 9.2-win offensive player last year, perhaps because he was unburdened by pitching. His previous high in offensive bWAR was 6; an undeniable superstar, sure, but not at 2024's levels. Let's try to accept last year as the outlier season it truly was. And let's not forget that in any format, he's utility-only -- he doesn't carry a position. It's a small ding, but it's worth considering, especially if you play on a platform less position-flexible than Yahoo.
That's enough about the guy I didn't pick. What about the player I did?
The case for taking Witt No. 1 in fantasy drafts
One item about Witt that specifically excites me is the idea that we haven't seen his best season yet. He steps into his age-25 campaign (Judge turns 33 in April; Ohtani turns 31 in July). There's already plenty of black ink on Witt's Baseball Reference page -- last year, he led the AL in hits and the Majors in batting average. His walks were up, his strikeouts down. His Baseball Savant slider page is a glorious collection of red -- in addition to all the hard-hit metrics, note the 100 percentile sprint speed. It doesn't seem fair that a hitter this great is also the fastest player in baseball. (This hasn't always led to Witt being a perfect basestealer, but he's still a kid -- bet on that efficiency improving.)
Witt doesn't have the supporting cast that Ohtani enjoys, but the Royals are on the right track. They were 13th in runs last year, after sitting 23rd the previous season. Six of the top seven hitters in the KC lineup are projected to be plus offensive players, if you work off their projected wRC+. Maybe the Royals can't go toe to toe with the best teams 1 through 9, but the top four of Jonathan India, Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez looks formidable to me.
There's some randomness to injuries, but when in doubt, bet on the younger players. Witt has missed just 17 games in three years. Ohtani has met significant injury in three of his seven seasons, while Judge has found IL issues in four of his past seven seasons. The longer I play fantasy sports, the more I want my premium players to be front-nine guys, athletes who are still on the escalator.
And sometimes there are no wrong answers. Witt, Ohtani and Judge can all be the centerpiece of any fantasy offense. All of them contributed in all five categories last year (albeit Judge's steals are probably a year-to-year thing). Witt could lead the Majors in almost any category. Judge is the signature right-handed power hitter in baseball, while maintaining a high average. Ohtani remains the ultimate one-of-one guy.
But my decision came down to age and career arc. And my decision was influenced by the unusual Ohtani spike in steals, and the likelihood that regresses significantly. I also am not sure how much a pitching workload could affect Ohtani's offense, even if that difference is slight.
Not everyone has to favor the same shade of blue. Not everything has to be East Coast or West Coast. So for 2025, Bobby Witt Jr. is my guy.