What does future hold for Vladdy, Blue Jays baseball?

December 26th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- Until the Blue Jays make a big splash that jolts everyone¡¯s attention back toward 2025, it¡¯s hard to keep your eyes from drifting down the road.

What does the next era of Toronto baseball look like?

Eras aren¡¯t defined by any particular length in baseball. You can still call this the era of and , with the Blue Jays continuing to try to make good on the plans they laid nearly a decade ago to build around a young core. Before this came the era of Jos¨¦ Bautista and the ¡°bunch of renegades¡± who brought Toronto back to the postseason.

What¡¯s next, then? The Blue Jays could keep the good times rolling by extending Guerrero Jr., but at this point, it would need to offer the young star the world to keep him from testing free agency next winter at just age 26. Another big-name signing could extend this window, too, which the club has tried to do with Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and others, but it hasn¡¯t landed one yet, and George Springer¡¯s six-year, $150 million deal in January 2021 stands as the largest in franchise history.

This question could hang over the season, particularly if Toronto looks anything like it did in 2024.

As each offseason stretches on and Spring Training begins to creep over the horizon, I always think of what my first question -- or first story -- will be when camp opens. This year, it feels like the answer is Vladdy¡¯s future with the organization. That¡¯s not an ideal place for the Blue Jays to be.

Looking forward: Money matters
Along with Guerrero and Bichette, is entering the final year of his contract valued at $22 million. Chad Green is in his final year, too, at $10.5 million, and if recent history is any indicator, Toronto will make some veteran additions on one-year deals.

¡¯s deal is up after 2026 and Jos¨¦ Berr¨ªos has an opt-out clause, which could be attractive in this market if he continues to pitch well. Springer, and are pending free agents after ¡¯26, too. There¡¯s clearly an off-ramp the Blue Jays can take in a year if they choose to. A major addition would change that equation completely, but we haven¡¯t seen it yet.

That said, the club has pushed club-record payrolls in recent years. On top of it, ownership has poured $400 million into Rogers Centre renovations and more than $100 million into the club¡¯s player-development complex and spring home, TD Ballpark. None of this logically aligns with a traditional rebuild so soon after, but as we¡¯ve seen these past two winters, money isn¡¯t the only factor.

The next wave: Players
Toronto¡¯s farm system has produced big leaguers, but it needs to produce a star again. That¡¯s the secret sauce.

If the Blue Jays had developed one or two more above-average players in this competitive era, that might have freed up $10 million or $20 million to be spent elsewhere. It¡¯s felt like this system has been just shy of creating that impact, and when it¡¯s been close, nothing has bounced the club¡¯s way.

No. 4 prospect Ricky Tiedemann, the former No. 1 pitching prospect, is a breathtaking talent when he¡¯s healthy, but he¡¯ll spend much of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. No. 2 prospect Orelvis Martinez is a powerhouse with the ability to change a game, but he lost the second half of ¡¯24 to an 80-game suspension for a performance-enhancing substance. When it rains, it pours.

As it stands today, the Blue Jays¡¯ system does not boast its next Guerrero or Bichette. This can change quickly, particularly with young talents like Martinez, No. 5 prospect Arjun Nimmala or whoever Toronto selects with the No. 8 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, but it¡¯s a difficult thing to bet on.

As it stands, the organization¡¯s farm system is growing in quantity. The Trade Deadline helped that with an influx of talent, and we¡¯ve seen names like Davis Schneider, Leo Jim¨¦nez, Addison Barger, Spencer Horwitz, Will Wagner, Jonatan Clase and Joey Loperfido reach the Major League roster recently. The next wave turns the spotlight to right-hander Jake Bloss (the Blue Jays¡¯ No. 3 prospect), outfielder Alan Roden (No. 12) and infielder Josh Kasevich (No. 9), among others, who will be tasked with raising this team¡¯s ceiling, not just its floor.

This is a massive year for the Blue Jays¡¯ farm system, even if it feels like this is the fourth consecutive season that¡¯s been said.

Know the name: Alan Roden
Blue Jays fans got a glimpse of Roden last spring. This February and March, I¡¯d bet on Roden being one of the more popular names in camp.

The 25-year-old Roden is an on-base machine, very much in the style of Spencer Howritz. Like Horwitz, he¡¯s been trying to add enough pop to make himself a more complete offensive threat, and that part of his game took a step forward with 16 home runs between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo last season.

Roden isn¡¯t the typical small-and-speedy outfielder you picture when you envision a high-OBP hitter. He¡¯s well-built and capable of driving the ball more, so this should be a fun new project for Toronto hitting coach David Popkins. Roden showed well after his Triple-A promotion mid-season in 2024, too, batting .314 with a .406 on-base percentage in 71 games for the Bisons.

This is the exact type of hitter the Blue Jays have shown a knack for drafting and developing, and given how often executives and coaches have gone out of their way to bring up his name, it¡¯s worth paying attention. Toronto¡¯s outfield has some opportunity for Roden, and while I¡¯d still bet on him starting in Triple-A to open the season, he could be a legitimate piece of this organization¡¯s plans in 2025.

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