Where 'The Shredder' ranks the Braves, Part 1
This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman's Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ATLANTA -- To give you another opportunity to declare that ¡°The Shredder¡± hates the Braves, let¡¯s take a look at where Atlanta¡¯s top players ranked as MLB Network spent the past couple of weeks ranking the Top 10 players at each position.
Using criteria based on past performance, various offensive and defensive metrics (including both advanced statistics and traditional numbers) and analysis by the MLB Network research team, The Shredder produced the rankings.
We¡¯ll cover starting pitchers, catchers and each of the infield positions today. Each of the outfield spots and relief pitchers will be covered in the next newsletter.
STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Sale (No. 3)
Sale ranks behind the Tigers¡¯ Tarik Skubal (No. 2) and the Phillies¡¯ Zack Wheeler. Sale (18 wins, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts) and Skubal (18 wins, 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts) produced nearly identical traditional stats while winning the Triple Crown in their respective leagues. Wheeler limited baserunners better than any other NL pitcher and completed six-plus innings an MLB-high 26 times, one more time than Skubal and seven more times than Sale.
Attempting to remove some variables, among pitchers who completed at least 140 innings, Sale led MLB in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and Adjusted ERA (which accounts for differences in ballparks). If reducing the innings limit to 130, Paul Skenes would have had the best Adjusted ERA and Reynaldo L¨®pez would have ranked second.
So, not only do the Braves have a starter within the top three, but L¨®pez¡¯s success also reminds us that he too could rank among the game¡¯s elite if he can build on last year¡¯s success while adding to his workload. So too could Spencer Schwellenbach, who was the best rookie starter I¡¯ve seen since Spencer Strider, who was trending to the top of this list before undergoing right elbow surgery in April.
Once Strider returns near the end of April this season, the Braves¡¯ rotation should again be one of the game¡¯s elite.
CATCHERS
Sean Murphy (No. 9)
Murphy was so good in previous seasons that he still ranked among the Top 10 after producing a .636 OPS and a 0.8 fWAR last year. This is the same guy whose 10.2 fWAR from 2022-23 ranked second only to the Orioles¡¯ Adley Rutschman. Murphy ranked third among all catchers with a 14 Fielding Run Value in 2023. Everything went downhill after he strained his left oblique during the sixth inning on Opening Day. When you consider his swing and throwing both declined, you have to wonder if lingering concerns about the oblique limited him from a mental standpoint.
FIRST BASEMEN
Matt Olson (No.3)
Freddie Freeman (No. 1), Bryce Harper (No. 2) and Olson have now filled the top three spots at this position for two straight years. There¡¯s nothing wrong with being positioned behind two likely future Hall of Famers. But Olson, who is a little more than four years younger than Freeman, could be at the top of this list next year and for a few more years to come. When the switch from Freeman to Olson was made, there was reason to think the Braves would gain the greatest value after the third year, when Freeman moved into his late 30s and Olson continued to be in his prime. Maybe Freeman never slows down. But Olson has also trended in the right direction. The 12.2 fWAR he has produced since the start of 2022 ranks second among first basemen to Freeman (18.7). Look for Olson¡¯s 2025 to look more like his ¡®23 than his ¡®24.
THIRD BASEMEN
Austin Riley (No. 5)
Riley ranked No. 1 last year and then fell down the list after an injury-marred season. He was aiming for a fourth straight 30-homer season before he suffered a season-ending right hand fracture in August. The defensive metrics haven¡¯t always been kind to Riley. But in regard to the third baseman, I¡¯m with manager Brian Snitker when he said, ¡°You can take those defensive metrics and put it you know where.¡± The eye test has told me Riley will rank among the game¡¯s top three third basemen for many years to come.
SECOND BASEMEN AND SHORTSTOPS
Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia were both unranked. Arcia might feel like less of a lineup burden as long as he is able to stay in the No. 8 or No. 9 spot this year. As for Albies, the defensive decline is concerning. His arm strength (72.5 mph average) ranked last among the 72 second basemen who made at least 50 throws last season. Still, if he can stay healthy, his bat will propel him back into the Top 10 next year.