This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman¡¯s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
NORTH PORT, Fla. -- What was the most encouraging development during Braves Spring Training this year? Was it¡
Hearing Chris Sale say he had a healthy offseason, proving he is no longer bothered by the back discomfort that sidelined him at the end of his Cy Young Award-winning season?
OR ...
Seeing Ronald Acuña Jr. hit majestic batting practice home runs, providing reason to believe he could rejoin Atlanta¡¯s lineup at some point during the first half of May?
OR ...
Watching Spencer Strider strike out six of the eight batters he faced while pitching for the first time in nearly a full calendar year (He¡¯ll start again on Sunday against the Orioles and could join Atlanta¡¯s rotation within the next few weeks)?
OR ...
Watching Drake Baldwin (Atlanta¡¯s No. 1 prospect and baseball¡¯s No. 62 prospect per MLB Pipeline) and AJ Smith-Shawver (Braves¡¯ No. 3 prospect) provide every indication they could both be impact players in Atlanta this year and beyond?
As the Braves enter the final week of the Grapefruit League season, there isn¡¯t much suspense about the Opening Day roster. Any questions about whether Baldwin would begin the season as Atlanta¡¯s primary catcher evaporated more than a week ago. The only question is how much time will he spend in the Majors. Sean Murphy will be the primary catcher after missing a week or two of the regular season with a cracked rib, but even if Baldwin is playing just once or twice a week, he could gain value by being around the pitching staff and improving his game-calling skills.
Smith-Shawver¡¯s bid to begin the season with Atlanta has improved as the Braves have eliminated bullpen candidates. He would likely be one of six starters on Atlanta¡¯s roster.
There¡¯s always a chance the Braves could alter their bullpen or bench plans once players are released from other organizations. But as things currently stand, it appears the bench will consist of catcher Chadwick Tromp, infielder Nick Allen, outfielder Bryan De La Cruz and super utility man Eli White. Once White showed he could handle the infield, his candidacy easily trumped Luke Williams¡¯.
As for the bullpen, the essential locks are Raisel Iglesias, Pierce Johnson, Daysbel Hernández, Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer. Hern¨¢ndez has options, but I can¡¯t see any scenario where it would be beneficial to option him for possibly two weeks to create a spot for another reliever.
Non-roster invitees Héctor Neris and Enyel De Los Santos are in line for two of the other three spots. By carrying Smith-Shawver, the Braves will protect themselves while playing seven straight days to open the regular season. Smith-Shawver could be used to make a start instead of Ian Anderson during this stretch. Or both could make a start during this busy stretch against the Padres or Dodgers. Or one might just be used as a long reliever. Regardless, there will be a need for a long-relief option.
What happens after the hectic season-opening trip? There might still be a need to carry a long reliever. The only certainty is that Smith-Shawver will be making starts somewhere, whether that be for Atlanta or Triple-A Gwinnett. If you missed Monday¡¯s newsletter, I wrote about why I think the 22-year-old hurler will make 20-plus starts this season. I truly believe this will be his year.
What happens when Craig Kimbrel is ready to join Atlanta¡¯s bullpen? We can sit here and dissect different options. But it¡¯s best to let the season unfold and provide the answers. Had we mapped out pitching plans around this time last year, we wouldn¡¯t have accounted for Jesse Chavez saving the day when Max Fried recorded just two outs in his season debut, and when six days later, Strider suffered his season-ending elbow injury.
That¡¯s because Chavez didn¡¯t even rejoin the Braves until the final day of camp. And no, I don¡¯t see it happening again. But Jesse will always be a cult hero in Atlanta.
What happens when Strider is ready to rejoin the rotation? If Smith-Shawver is pitching great, does he continue to make starts? Will Anderson continue to get starts if he continues issuing far too many walks? Would Grant Holmes go back to the bullpen to make room for Strider? Could Holmes and Kimbrel both join the bullpen around the same time? Does it make sense to move Holmes to the bullpen if he is effective as a starter?
This is the beauty of a 162-game season. Even the best teams face a plethora of questions entering the season. Having the depth necessary to adequately address inevitable issues is often the key to a successful regular season.
How do you succeed in the postseason? You avoid the injuries that have wrecked Atlanta¡¯s rotation at the end of each of the past three regular seasons. And you hope that the bullpen that caused you stress in September suddenly becomes The Night Shift once October arrives.