Winds of change? Harper, Phillies find fewer homer totals at CBP

CLEARWATER, Fla. -- Bryce Harper has homered enough in his life to know when he hits one.

He barreled a few balls the past couple years at Citizens Bank Park that probably should have cleared the fence, but instead they hit the wall or died on the warning track.

If it weren¡¯t for the Bank¡¯s unforgiving winds.

Over the past two seasons, Major League Baseball¡¯s Statcast has measured the weather¡¯s effects at all 30 ballparks. It turns out the ballpark that once had Phillies pitchers using golf rangefinders to prove the distances marked on the walls were incorrect -- indeed, the numbers originally marked in 2004 were wrong -- that elite pitchers like John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, David Wells and Jake Peavy once said would prevent the Phils from winning and signing big-time talent, that a coach once compared to Little League¡¯s Williamsport, lost 48 homers the past two years because of the wind.

Only Kansas City¡¯s Kauffman Stadium (67), Chicago¡¯s Wrigley Field (56) and Seattle¡¯s T-Mobile Park (55) lost more homers because of the wind.

• Wind effect: These ballparks, players were most impacted by the weather

Harper lost six homers over the past two seasons because of it.

¡°I¡¯d take six extra homers,¡± Harper said, chuckling. ¡°I think everybody in here, you know when you get a homer. I feel like a lot of guys lose them in that left-center gap. I would say that¡¯s probably the biggest difference where we all see a difference.¡±

Brandon Marsh and Trea Turner each lost three because of the wind. Several players lost two, including Nick Castellanos.

That must matter to hitters.

¡°It doesn¡¯t matter anymore,¡± Marsh said, smiling.

Conversely, the wind saved Aaron Nola from five homers. It saved Taijuan Walker from three.

¡°I always thought our place was a bandbox,¡± Nola said.

Citizens Bank Park has always been a homer-friendly ballpark, although it plays mostly neutral overall because it allows fewer singles and doubles.

¡°I don¡¯t think the ballpark is a joke as much as everybody thinks it is,¡± Harper said. ¡°I mean, we all talk about [the wind] in here. Early in the year, it¡¯s tough. In the summer, it¡¯s good. Then, later in the year, it gets tougher again. But I can¡¯t control what Mother Nature¡¯s doing. I know I got it, and obviously you want to hit a homer, change a game, change the way you¡¯re feeling that week or whatever it is.¡±

Has it always been this way, but nobody knew because weather effects weren¡¯t measured? Possibly. Could the wind¡¯s effects have changed over time with structures being built around the ballpark? How about changes to the scoreboard in left field? Perhaps.

¡°It¡¯s interesting,¡± Phillies assistant general manager Ani Kilambi said. ¡°You look at the chart, the average by ballpark is negative. However they¡¯re doing it, fewer home runs were generated than you would expect in neutral conditions. I would just speculate that is due to ballparks having different features, but still more seats behind home plate than in the outfield and wind being potentially more likely to come in through the outfield. But I don¡¯t know that for sure. But when I looked at it, I saw Oakland was kind of balanced because they have all those seats in center. I was wondering if maybe that was the factor there. I don¡¯t know.

¡°The short answer is, the way we see it now, is that we think CBP plays pretty neutral in terms of impacting pitchers and position players. A lot goes into that: the weather, the wind, the ballpark dimensions. There¡¯s a lot of standardization in how baseballs are stored nowadays. Everyone has a humidor. That wasn¡¯t historically always the case. The batter¡¯s eye makes an impact, too.¡±

The wind at the Bank isn¡¯t something Phillies hitters or pitchers seem to obsess about.

But it is discussed. It is considered.

¡°We talked about it for a couple months early last season,¡± catcher Garrett Stubbs said. ¡°Everyone says our park is a great hitters¡¯ park, which maybe it is. Park Factor, I think it¡¯s middle of the pack. But you know the elements wherever you go because it could be part of calling pitches. Like, if the wind is blowing straight in, I¡¯m like, ¡®Try to hit a homer. Go ahead. Try.¡¯ Like, if you have a four-seam guy on the mound, go ahead. Like, feed him at the top of the zone and if you get it out in this, good for you.¡±

Nola said he never checks after a start to see if a ball should have been a homer or not, based on exit velocity and launch angle. He is like the Cleveland fan in the bleachers in Major League: ¡°Who gives a [bleep]? It¡¯s gone.¡±

¡°If it¡¯s a home run, it¡¯s a home run,¡± Nola said. ¡°If it¡¯s not, it¡¯s not.¡±

But say Harper averages three lost homers per season at the Bank over his entire 13-year contract with the Phillies.

That¡¯s 39 fewer homers on a likely Hall of Fame resume.

¡°I think I¡¯m going to be OK,¡± Harper said. ¡°If I hit 30-plus over the next seven years, I¡¯ll be fine.¡±