The Dodgers will not stop winning. After their 6-5 win over the already-reeling Braves on Wednesday night, they are 8-0, their best start to a season since moving to Los Angeles in 1958, and the best ever by a defending champion. They have been good at everything so far. Their hitters are fourth in the Majors in SLG, fifth in OPS and second in home runs. Their pitchers are second in ERA and first in strikeouts. They¡¯ve got three MVPs in their lineup and a Cy Young winner in their rotation, they¡¯ve got depth everywhere, they¡¯ve got a relentless bullpen, and most of all, they have Shohei Ohtani. How in the world are you supposed to beat these guys?
It has led to a legitimate discussion already: Can the Dodgers win 117 games, breaking the AL/NL record for wins in a season, currently held by the 1906 Cubs and the 2001 Mariners? This discussion is invariably tied up with the Dodgers¡¯ offseason spending spree, on the heels of them winning a World Series. After all, if they have the ambition to build their roster to this level, well then why shouldn¡¯t they go all the way with it?
But here¡¯s something I¡¯m pretty comfortable saying, in the first days of April: The Dodgers aren¡¯t going to break that record, no matter how strong their start is. In fact, I don¡¯t think they will even come all that close. More to the point, if the focus here is on becoming MLB¡¯s first repeat champions since the 2000 Yankees, the Dodgers will probably be better off not breaking the record.
Here¡¯s why Los Angeles won¡¯t approach 117 wins -- and why that¡¯s not a bad thing for its chances in October.
117 wins isn¡¯t the ultimate goal
Last year, the Dodgers won 98 games, which, obviously, is a lot of games. But did you know that 98 wins represented Los Angeles¡¯ lowest winning percentage (.605) since 2018? Do you know what effect that had? None whatsoever. The Dodgers still finished atop the National League West. They still had the best record in the Majors and thus held the No. 1 overall seed in the postseason. And, of course, they still won the World Series.
On the other hand, five recent Dodgers clubs that won anywhere from 100-111 games fell short in October. (As did the 2001 Mariners and even the 1906 Cubs, who went straight to the World Series and lost to the White Sox in six games.) So is reaching for the highest possible win total during the regular season worth it? Even if the possibility always exists for an NL West team to go all 2021 Giants and somehow snatch the division title away from the Dodgers, the expanded playoff system provides three Wild Card spots -- and eight Wild Card teams have gone on to win the World Series.
But let¡¯s say this year¡¯s Los Angeles team builds a significant division lead, as expected. If it finds itself within range of 117 wins entering September, is it worth it to the club to go all out in pursuit of that number? As fun as it would be to see that record broken, the answer is: No, it¡¯s not worth it.
This roster needs rest
Part of the answer to the question above comes down to this point. Quietly, very quietly, the Dodgers have gotten kind of old. When Tommy Edman turns 30 on May 9 -- and happy early birthday, Tommy! -- the only position player on the active roster who will be under 30 will be Andy Pages. When you have that many guys 30 and over, they¡¯re going to need a lot of days off. (Two of their three MVPs over 30, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, have already needed time off this year, and the season isn¡¯t a week old. The other is Ohtani, who¡¯s going to return to pitching at some point.)
Los Angeles does have some young talent bubbling to the top of its No. 4-ranked farm system, but there¡¯s a reason those guys are not on the MLB roster just yet, after all. The best way to keep all those older players on the field in October is to give them liberal time off throughout the season.
Obviously, though, that objective clashes with trying to win 117 games. To reach such a number requires your best guys on the field all season long, a wild run of injury luck, particularly for a team so old. But the Dodgers are smart, and they¡¯ll recognize that¡¯s a bad idea, even if their stars are healthy and available. Imagine how bad they¡¯ll look if they floor it in September to break the record, and Freeman, Ohtani or Betts (or Blake Snell, or Roki Sasaki, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or whoever) ends up sidelined for the playoffs. They need those guys in October more than in July -- but resting them in July could cost wins.
They do actually have some flaws
Maybe you haven¡¯t been able to tell so far, but the Dodgers are not, in fact, perfect. A little lost in how fantastic their bullpen has been is how many innings that bullpen has needed to cover. The five Dodgers who have started a game so far (Snell, Sasaki, Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Dustin May) have pitched 33 2/3 innings. The bullpen arms? 39 1/3. That says something about both Los Angeles¡¯ starting rotation and its bullpen, how the club is hoping to mete out those starters¡¯ innings and also how much pressure it¡¯s already putting on the bullpen.
The Dodgers can pull that off for a couple of weeks, either at the beginning of the season or, as we saw last October, during the postseason. But over the course of a full season, that¡¯ll put a pitching staff in serious danger of imploding. (Which we also saw last year.) Los Angeles has a lot of pitchers in the Minors and on the IL who will be up at some point this year (Clayton Kershaw not least among them), but still: There are not an infinite number of arms, here or anywhere else.
Add to that, again, the age of the position players, and there are actual baseball reasons -- outside of just rest management -- why the Dodgers will have a hard time winning 117 games, even if they do decide they want to go all out for that goal. (Which they won¡¯t.) It¡¯s really hard to win 117 games! That is, after all, why no one has done it before.
I know it¡¯s fun to talk about the Dodgers being the best team of all time, about how they could end up setting this all-time record. But it¡¯s not going to happen. It probably shouldn¡¯t happen. But honestly? How wild is it that we're one week into the season, and we can even talk about a team making a run at it? That¡¯s how good these Dodgers are: They really can get your imagination going.