What's ahead for the Cards at Winter Meetings?
This story was excerpted from John Denton's Cardinals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
The question engulfing the Cardinals is the same one that has been furiously churning in the weeks since Sept. 30 when president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced that the club would be entering a ¡°reset¡± phase in 2025 instead of pursuing a potential 12th World Series crown.
The burning question from that day until now has stayed the same.
Who stays and who goes?
Willson Contreras, who was thought to be the long-term heir apparent to Yadier Molina at catcher, will stay, but only after agreeing to move to first base. Sonny Gray, who signed with the Cards a year ago in hopes of playing for a perennial winner, is sticking around because he has a no-trade clause, and he likes the proximity between St. Louis and his home in Nashville, Tenn.
As for star closer Ryan Helsley, potential future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado and pitchers Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas, there are still more questions than answers. If the Cards don¡¯t plan to sign Helsley to a $100 million contract following the 2025 season, shouldn¡¯t they trade him now for a gaggle of prospects? Arenado, 33, is working furiously this offseason to prove that he still has some pop left in his bat, but what team is willing to pay the $74 million he¡¯s still owed? How much money will the Cards have to eat if they find takers for Matz and/or Mikolas?
At long last, some clarity as to those questions could come once the Winter Meetings crank up on Monday.
Key events
- Sunday: HOF Classic Baseball Era Committee results released
- Tuesday: MLB Draft Lottery
- Wednesday: Rule 5 Draft
Burning question: Again, who stays and who goes?
When St. Louis decided to ¡°reset¡± its focus in 2025 and shift the emphasis toward developing its young core, it was a jarring feeling for long-time watchers not used to seeing the Redbirds not trying to run down a World Series title. It also had to be unpleasant news for accomplished veteran players who either signed with the club or waived opt-out options to remain with what they thought would be a perennial winner.
Arenado, who desperately wants to win a World Series in the twilight of his career, might waive his no-trade clause if the Cards can find a contending team where he fits as a corner infielder. Helsley will see his contract for 2025 likely jump to more than $8 million, and then he¡¯s a free agent who could command a deal similar to the ones signed by Edwin D¨ªaz and Josh Hader. Because of his stature as one of the game¡¯s preeminent closers, Helsley could also command the largest haul of prospects of any player St. Louis might make available in a trade.
Any team that nabs Helsley -- the longest-tenured Cardinal -- will be better off for it. The guess here is that Matz, Helsley and Arenado are dealt before the team hits Jupiter, Fla., for Spring Training.
Club needs: Thump in the outfield
The projected Opening Day lineup with the roster as currently constructed likely includes an outfield of Lars Nootbaar in left field, Michael Siani in center and Jordan Walker in right. That trio combined to hit just 19 home runs at the MLB level last season. The Cards are hopeful that Nootbaar can avoid the IL stints that have slowed him the past two seasons, and that swing chances can help Walker finally reach his massive potential.
St. Louis desperately needs those two sluggers to hit in the middle of the order in 2025 and prove much more thump in terms of homers and extra-base hits -- especially with Paul Goldschmidt gone and Arenado a possibility to be traded away. Could potential deals help the Cardinals land the slugging outfielder that they have sought for more than a decade? St. Louis hasn¡¯t had a homegrown All-Star outfielder since Allen Craig in 2013.
Or could Chase Davis, the club¡¯s first-round Draft pick in 2023 and the organization¡¯s No. 7-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline, emerge in Spring Training and become the thumper the Cards covet from the corner-outfield spots?
Potential trade candidates
While the baseball world waits to see which team lands megastar Juan Soto and who signs Corbin Burnes, the Cardinals¡¯ focus throughout the Winter Meetings will revolve around the trade market. The aforementioned names -- Arenado, Helsley, Matz and Mikolas -- might be headed out of town, or the club could hold onto one or all of them and hope their returns improve as other teams whiff in free agency and look to make deals.
Prospect to know: LHP Quinn Mathews
No prospect in baseball enhanced their prospects more than Mathews, who became just the second Cardinals pitcher in the past 20 years to pitch at four Minor League levels in one season. That growth earned Mathews, the No. 3-ranked prospect in the Cards¡¯ system and No. 77 in baseball, the organization¡¯s Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award after striking out 202 batters over 143 1/3 innings with Single-A Palm Beach, High-A Peoria, Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis.
Mathews finished 8-5 with a 2.76 ERA by beautifully mixing four pitches. He showed off his immense potential on Aug. 23 when he fanned 12 and took a perfect game into the seventh inning.
Up next for Mathews will likely be an invite to MLB Spring Training and a chance to show that his stuff might play at the big league level.
Rule 5 Draft
Thanks partly to some insider knowledge from former Red Sox president and current Cards advisor Chaim Bloom, the club plucked righty reliever Ryan Fernandez from Boston in last year¡¯s Rule 5 Draft. Forced to remain on the roster for the entire season per MLB¡¯s Rule 5 stipulations, Fernandez blossomed into one of the season¡¯s feel-good stories for the Cardinals. If the club deals Helsley, don¡¯t be surprised if Fernandez is the closer come Opening Day.
St. Louis also protected right-handers Tink Hence (the Cardinals¡¯ No. 2 prospect and No. 61 in baseball) and Tekoah Roby (Cards¡¯ No. 6 prospect), from Rule 5 danger. Protecting Matt Svanson (27 saves with Springfield) and Matt Koperniak (20 homers and 28 doubles with Memphis) gives St. Louis protection in the bullpen and outfield.