Burnes favorite? Pair of 3B with fates intertwined? Your questions, answered

December 17th, 2024

A flurry of trades and free agent signings gave fans plenty to talk about during Major League Baseball*s Winter Meetings last week, but that doesn*t mean the dealing is done. Several high-profile players are still on the board, which could make for an interesting holiday season.

What*s next? Let*s dive in:

Are the Blue Jays and Giants still the favorites for Corbin Burnes? What*s another team to watch closely in those sweepstakes?

Toronto and San Francisco continue to be viewed as the two favorites to land the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner, who has been the top free-agent starter available all offseason.

The Blue Jays have clearly shown their willingness to spend money with their big offer to Juan Soto (not to mention last year*s push for Shohei Ohtani), and while their rotation is strong with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jos谷 Berr赤os leading the way, Bassitt is slated to hit free agency next winter and Gausman the year after that.

The Giants made a big splash last week with the signing of Willy Adames, but San Francisco is still looking to replace Blake Snell, who signed with the division-rival Dodgers. Burnes 每 a Southern California native who played his college ball in the Bay Area 每 would be an ideal fit, though after Max Fried landed a $218 million deal from the Yankees, Burnes is now expected to exceed that guaranteed total, with some projecting a deal worth more than $245 million.

Two other AL East teams could work their way into the mix: the Red Sox and Orioles. Boston dealt for Garrett Crochet to address the top of its rotation, but after making a run at Soto, there is clearly money if the Red Sox decide to spend it. The Orioles have made a couple of offensive signings with Tyler O*Neill and Gary S芍nchez and on Monday added Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, but after trading for Burnes last offseason, a return to Baltimore can*t be ruled out.

Both of those clubs could also pivot to Jack Flaherty or Walker Buehler if the price for Burnes proves to be too high for their taste, as the two free agents are more appealing than Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta, each of whom would cost Draft-pick compensation after turning down qualifying offers.

Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo are the two hottest names still out there on the trade market for starting pitchers. Which is the most likely scenario: Cease gets dealt, Castillo gets dealt, or both?

It would not be surprising if both starters were traded, especially given the aggressive histories of Seattle*s Jerry Dipoto and San Diego*s A.J. Preller.

Castillo feels like the more likely arm to be moved, as the Mariners are desperate for an offensive upgrade but don*t appear to have the payroll flexibility to attack the free-agent market. Seattle could look to trade Castillo for an impact bat, though it*s possible the Mariners could try to offload his salary with the idea of improving the lineup via free agency.

The Red Sox would seem like a strong match with the Mariners, especially as Boston continues to monitor the market for hitters like Alex Bregman and Teoscar Hern芍ndez. Could the Sox move Triston Casas as part of a deal for Castillo, then sign Bregman and move Rafael Devers to first base? Seattle could also move Castillo for prospects, then use the money it had earmarked for the pitcher to sign a free agent such as Christian Walker.

Cease would seem like a solid fallback plan for the Orioles, though after potentially losing Burnes just one season after acquiring him, it remains to be seen whether GM Mike Elias would give up a package of players for another pitcher with one year of club control. Castillo, who is signed for three years and $68.25 million (plus a $25 million vesting option for 2028) might be a better target for Baltimore, which would get a frontline arm at a much more affordable cost than Burnes.

With the Cubs landing Kyle Tucker instead of the Yankees, a Cody-Bellinger-to-the-Bronx trade feels like such a clear fit. How would you assess the likelihood of that coming together?

Bellinger is a natural fit for the Yankees, since he can play either left field or first base. The Cubs are on the hook for $27.5 million in 2025 and, if Bellinger exercises his player option, another $25 million in 2026 (or a $5 million buyout, which would make the 2025 commitment a total of $32.5 million).

While it*s unclear exactly what the Yankees would send back in a deal for Bellinger, the Cubs aren*t likely to ask for a haul in order to shed some of Bellinger*s salary from the payroll. The two sides are seemingly far apart on just how much money Chicago would have to send to New York in a deal, but given that Bellinger doesn*t appear to have a spot in the Cubs* lineup following the deal for Tucker, industry sources expect the Yankees and Cubs to come to a deal at some point.

How much are the Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado markets tied together, even though Bregman is a free agent and Arenado a trade candidate (who can control his destination via a no-trade clause)? Which player is more likely to move first?

These two players are directly tied to each other, as they represent the two best options at third base between the free-agent and trade markets.

The Astros 每 who will have to find a new third baseman if Bregman signs elsewhere 每 have emerged as a contender for Arenado, though a reunion with Bregman also remains on their radar. Houston acquired Isaac Paredes in the Tucker deal, so adding a third baseman isn*t a necessity, but the Astros could move Paredes to first base if they acquired Arenado or re-signed Bregman.

The Yankees are also believed to have interest in both players, either of whom would take over at third base, shifting Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second. Other clubs in on Bregman to varying degrees include the Red Sox, Mets, Tigers and Blue Jays.

Arenado has three years and $74 million left on his contract, though $10 million of it is being paid by the Rockies as part of the deal that sent him to the Cardinals in February 2021. Arenado has a full no-trade clause, though sources believe he would be willing to waive it to join a contender.

There was some thought that slugging corner outfielders Teoscar Hern芍ndez and Anthony Santander would sign quickly after Soto came off the board, but it hasn*t happened yet. What*s your read on their markets?

It made sense that both Hern芍ndez and Santander would have moved quickly once Soto signed, but their markets have been slower than expected.

The Dodgers and Hern芍ndez seemed headed for a reunion, but the two sides haven*t been able to reach a deal thus far. That opened the door for other teams 每 namely the Red Sox and Blue Jays 每 to jump in on the outfielder, who is seeking a three-year deal in the $22-24 million a year range, per sources.

Santander, who ranked third in the Majors with 44 home runs last season, is believed to be looking for a five-year deal, likely in the $100 million range. The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays 每 who all missed out on Soto when he signed with the Mets 每 are interested in Santander. Other teams to watch include the Dodgers, Tigers and Nationals.

One thing potentially slowing this market: both Santander and Hern芍ndez rejected qualifying offers, so any team that signs them will have to forfeit Draft picks and/or international bonus pool money.

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