Here are the favorites as Cy Young races take shape
Jason Foster
@ByJasonFosterA little more than two weeks into the 2024 MLB season, the Cy Young races are already taking shape 每 and also wide open.
In our first Cy Young poll of the season, 23 pitchers in the American League and 19 pitchers in the National League received at least one vote from a panel of 42 MLB.com experts. Some names are familiar and expected, while others are pleasant surprises.
As always, voters were asked to rank their top five picks in each league. Pitchers received vote points on a 5-4-3-2-1 scale 每 five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on. Here are the results.
All stats are through Sunday.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
1) Corbin Burnes, Orioles (27 first-place votes)
Burnes is looking every bit like the ace the Orioles hoped they＊d get when they traded for the 2022 NL Cy Young winner in the offseason. The righty is 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his first four outings and has looked dominant at times. Remember those 11 strikeouts in six innings on Opening Day? Overall, he's recorded 25 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings and produced a career-low walk rate of 4.3 percent in the early going. His 0.93 WHIP is even below his NL-leading 1.07 WHIP from last season. Baltimore is 4-0 in Burnes＊ starts, which literally couldn＊t be any better.
2) Tarik Skubal, Tigers (4 first-place votes)
Skubal has picked up where he left off in an impressive 2023 season (2.80 ERA and 11.4 K/9 ratio in 15 starts). In three starts so far, he＊s pitched to a 2.08 ERA, notched 20 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings and recorded a microscopic 0.75 WHIP. But he＊s not just getting outs 每 he＊s getting them fairly easily. Skubal ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in opponents' average exit velocity (83.6 mph), hard-hit rate (22 percent) and expected batting average (.155).
3) Cole Ragans, Royals (2 first-place votes)
Ragans is a great example of why pitcher wins can be a misleading stat. He＊s 0-1 in four starts for the Royals, but his ERA is a stellar 1.93. In fact, he allowed no runs in two of his starts, but the Royals lost both games. After coming over in a trade with the Rangers last summer, Ragans is showing the breakout potential many thought was possible. Of particular note are his changeup and knuckle curve, which have generated 50.1 percent and 66.7 percent whiff rates, respectively.
L車pez has pitched in some bad luck so far. Just look at his 4.86 ERA compared to a 3.61 FIP. But the underlying metrics are still strong. Perhaps the biggest one is his 35.1 percent chase rate, which has led to a 31.3 percent whiff rate. He＊s still averaging about a strikeout per inning and batters are hitting just .118 on his four-seam fastball. In fact, of his four primary pitches 每 fastballs, sweeper, changeup, curve 每 the expected batting averages range from a low of .179 (fastballs) to a high of .273 (changeup).
5) Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers
Eovaldi＊s numbers are solid so far, but they looked better before a five-run outing Sunday against the Astros. Coming into Sunday, he had pitched to a 1.45 ERA over his first three outings for the Rangers. But the rough start against Houston raised his ERA to a still-good 2.92. Still, Eovaldi is missing plenty of bats on the season, as evidenced by his 31 percent whiff rate and his 23.2 percent strikeout rate, his highest since 2021.
Others receiving votes: Logan Gilbert (Mariners), Jos谷 Berr赤os (Blue Jays), Ronel Blanco (Astros), Reid Detmers (Angels), Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Luis Castillo (Mariners), Paul Blackburn (A＊s), Cody Bradford (Rangers), Brady Singer (Royals), Cristian Javier (Astros), Kutter Crawford (Red Sox), Joe Ryan (Twins), Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), George Kirby (Mariners), Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles), Aaron Civale (Rays), Bryce Miller (Mariners), Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
1) Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers (16 first-place votes)
Glasnow looked good-but-not-great in his first three starts as a Dodger (3-0; 3.18 ERA in 17 innings), then looked otherworldly in his outing on April 9, when he fanned 14 Twins over seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball. That start lowered his ERA to 2.25 and raised his K/9 ratio to 12.6. Along with his high ranks in traditional stats, Glasnow ranked near the top of the league in notable categories such as expected ERA (1.97) and expected batting average (.166). The right-hander did take a step backward though after our voting, allowing six runs in five innings in a 6-4 loss to the Nationals on Monday night.
2) Zack Wheeler, Phillies (20 first-place votes)
Wheeler is another guy who＊s pitched in bad luck in the early going. He＊s 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA (2.58 FIP) for the season, but he leads the NL with 30 strikeouts in a league-leading 24 innings. The Phillies have lost all four of Wheeler＊s starts, scoring two or fewer runs in three of them. But Wheeler is definitely doing his part. He has an elite 37.6 percent chase rate, which ranks in MLB＊s 94th percentile, and his 30 percent strikeout rate is the highest of his career.
3) Zac Gallen, D-backs (3 first-place votes)
Gallen＊s three wins are tied for the MLB lead, and his ERA is a tiny 1.64, but his work in other categories is perhaps even more impressive. He＊s allowed no home runs in any of his four starts, a big reason why his 1.98 FIP leads MLB. But that＊ll happen when you have a career-high 47.3 percent ground ball rate, career-low 12.7 percent fly ball rate and a career-low 1.8 percent barrel rate. Also notable: His slider is generating whiffs at a rate of 60 percent, about twice as much as last season.
4) Freddy Peralta, Brewers
Peralta will enter his next start with a WHIP of 0.68 and a K/9 ratio of 13.2, both of which lead the NL. The Brewers have won all three of Peralta＊s starts, as he allowed just one earned run in two of the three. It's just what the team needed with former ace Burnes now in Baltimore and Brandon Woodruff sidelined while recovering from shoulder surgery. Combine Peralta's 39.4 percent strikeout rate with an excellent 3 percent walk rate and a .191 expected batting average, and you have the makings of an elite and dominant pitcher.
5) Dylan Cease, Padres
Cease has produced strong numbers in his first few starts as a Padre 每 just four earned runs across three starts, along with 20 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings 每 but San Diego is 1-2 in those outings. Still, his 2.16 ERA and 2.71 FIP are both excellent and show why he was a coveted name during the offseason. Not to mention that his 9.1 percent walk rate is a career low. In other words, Cease is giving the Padres exactly what they hoped for.
Others receiving votes: Shota Imanaga (Cubs), Logan Webb (Giants), Jordan Hicks (Giants), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers), Mart赤n P谷rez (Pirates), Ranger Su芍rez (Phillies), Frankie Montas (Reds), Paul Skenes (Pirates), Merrill Kelly (D-backs), Steven Matz (Cardinals), Jared Jones (Pirates), Edwin D赤az (Mets), Blake Snell (Giants), Jes迆s Luzardo (Marlins)