Too soon? Predicting the '21 division winners

November 15th, 2020

One year ago, I had a revelation: Why wait until March to make flawed predictions about the upcoming baseball season when I can get out in front of everybody else and make flawed predictions in November? That¡¯s why I wrote way-too-early division predictions for the 2020 season.

This was an oddly diabolical approach. I didn¡¯t get swayed by Hot Stove happenstance or Spring Training storylines. I wound up nailing four of six divisions (which might not sound great, but, well, was pretty good for me). The only ones I missed were the White Sox in the American League Central (they only fell short by one game) and the Reds in the National League Central (they only fell short by three games).

Oh, and I didn¡¯t predict that the season would be shortened to 60 games and that teams would only play others in their geographic region and that 16 clubs would reach the playoffs due to a global pandemic.

Point is, division predictions are much more fun this way. So let¡¯s do it all again with this way, way, way too early look at 2021.

AL East: Blue Jays
The Rays are the defending AL champs, which earns them esteem (and Blake Snell won¡¯t have to worry about any hangover effects from his October innings log, because, well ¡­). The Yankees are a perennial power that, in all likelihood, will be the AL East favorite again, regardless of 2020 outcome.

But Toronto ¡­ er, excuse me ¡­ the Blue Jays took a big step forward in 2020. And I would argue they did it without their young lineup reaching its full offensive potential. To justify this lofty prediction, they would need to add an established, impact bat to the mix, plus at least one impact arm to a rotation that has little experience -- outside of Hyun Jin Ryu and Robbie Ray -- but high upside in Nate Pearson and others. That¡¯s a tall offseason order, but it¡¯s one I feel the Blue Jays are in a better position than most to fulfill because of their financial flexibility and deep farm system.

One can never be certain when a rebuild project will fully crystallize at the big league level, and the Blue Jays¡¯ situation is further complicated by the continued uncertainty as to whether they¡¯ll even be able to play in their home ballpark (and country) in 2021. But fortune favors the bold, picking the Yankees is boring, and, anyway, both you and I will probably forget I made this prediction by Opening Day, which is an eternity from now.

AL Central: White Sox
I went a little White Sox crazy with my predictions last winter. I picked them to win the Central. I picked Yo¨¢n Moncada to, at the very least, vie for the AL MVP. I picked Rick Renteria to win Manager of the Year (I basically locked myself into that one when I picked the Sox to win the Central). Well, Moncada was not in the MVP discussion (though his teammate, Jos¨¦ Abreu, ended up taking home the hardware). Renteria, who parted ways with the club and was replaced by Tony La Russa, was a finalist for the Manager of the Year Award.

Still, I regret nothing. The Sox are young, fun and very much capable of commanding the Central moving forward, so I¡¯ll take them again for ¡¯21. The Twins have the back-to-back division crowns but showed some vulnerability in 2020, particularly with Josh Donaldson hobbled. Minnesota had the seventh-oldest average position player age in MLB and the third-oldest pitching staff, per Baseball Reference. And the Central¡¯s other contending club, the Indians, have an elite rotation but are very much in the midst of going younger and cheaper, which of course does not necessarily equate to getting better.

The Sox have work to do. They need another viable starter and need to upgrade their offense in right field and at designated hitter. How or whether they¡¯ll spend in the midst of the pandemic is an open question. But they could get a boost from within by the return of one-time hot prospect Michael Kopech and current No. 1 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, Andrew Vaughn.

AL West: Mariners
Will this really happen? Well, no, probably not. But honestly, I¡¯m not 100 percent sure anybody is going to win the AL West next year.

The A¡¯s -- as predicted right here! -- won it in 2020 but have 10 free agents, including their starting shortstop (Marcus Semien), their closer (Liam Hendriks), their midseason second base acquisition (Tommy La Stella) and two-fifths of their rotation (Mike Minor and Mike Fiers). That¡¯s a lot of ground to cover for a low-budget ballclub.

Houston¡¯s obviously in transition. The Astros won¡¯t have Justin Verlander (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and might not have George Springer and Michael Brantley (both free agents). They certainly outperformed what you¡¯d expect with all the hits to their pitching staff in 2020, but was that a sign of organizational strength moving forward or a last gasp?

The Angels already have a high payroll, which will make any bid by a new-look front office to improve their pitching difficulties. The Rangers expected to take a step forward in 2020, but instead were one of the worst teams in baseball. The Mariners were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball, but instead took a step forward.

With everything so up in the air, I might as well take a total longshot gamble here, in the hope that it¡¯ll make me look like a genius 11 months from now. The Mariners played better than expected in 2020, are beginning to graduate their young talent to the big leagues (including MLB Pipeline¡¯s No. 9 overall prospect, Jarred Kelenic, who should debut in 2021) and only have $43.5 million in guaranteed contracts on the books for the upcoming season. Whether that means they¡¯ll actually try to accelerate their timetable remains to be seen, but the AL West is wide open, and the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports has to end one of these years.

NL East: Braves
What made the NL East so fascinating in 2020 is that it had four teams -- the Braves, Nationals, Mets and Phillies -- that seemed to have a legitimate chance of reaching the postseason. So what happened? The Braves repeated as division winners, and the Marlins -- the Marlins! -- made the playoffs while the others went home.

Now, a bunch of factors combine to make the East compelling. You¡¯ve got the Braves trying to decide what to do as one of their best bats, Marcell Ozuna, hits free agency with the DH position potentially no longer available to them. You¡¯ve got the Phillies undergoing a change in general managers after their win-now roster disappointed yet again. You¡¯ve got the Fish feeling themselves and entering 2021 with hardly any guaranteed money on the books. You¡¯ve got the Nats in the midst of major transition so soon after winning it all. And above all else, you¡¯ve got the Mets inspiring hope of a spending spree with their ownership change.

If the Mets do go nuts, there will be particular reason to pick them. They¡¯ve got the best pitcher in baseball in Jacob deGrom, and they have a lineup that, according to context stats like weighted runs created plus and OPS+, was comparable to that of the Dodgers in 2020.

But let¡¯s not sleep on the Braves, who came within one win of the World Series with a starting staff held together by duct tape and used gum. Give them a modicum of health moving forward (most prominently with the return of Mike Soroka from an Achilles injury), and they¡¯ll find a way to piece together another run, even if they have to fill an Ozuna-sized hole.

(Besides, at least a couple of the 2020 division winners have to repeat, right? Right?!)

NL Central: Cardinals
The Central provided four playoff teams in 2020, but, much like the AL West, this looks like a very winnable division.

The Cubs claimed it in the shortened season, but they are likely to shake up a core that fell far short of dynastic expectation. The Cardinals survived a schedule made dramatically more difficult by their COVID outbreak, but they might not be willing to spend what it would take to improve offensively. The Reds greatly underperformed offensively in 2020, and they could lose ace Trevor Bauer in free agency. The Brewers were a sub-.500 team and declined a $4.5 million option on their best offensive player from 2020 (Jedd Gyorko), which basically shows where they¡¯re at. The Pirates are, um, probably not contenders.

When in doubt, take the team with the most depth of pitching. For me, that¡¯s the Cardinals, who, whether or not they re-sign Adam Wainwright, have Jack Flaherty and Kwang Hyun Kim to form the makings of a solid rotation and good relief arms aplenty in Alex Reyes, Genesis Cabrera, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Miller, Austin Gomber, Tyler Webb and others. So St. Louis is my pick (that I am not at all confident in).

NL West: Dodgers
Ordinarily, I assume a baked-in letdown after a World Series run. After all, only two of 10 World Series champs from the 2010s won their division the following year.

But the shortened schedule and reduced wear and tear on the arms mitigates much of that concern. And of course, there is the Dodgers¡¯ enviable system depth and spending power, which guards them against some of the attrition others have encountered. The gap in the West tightened a great deal in 2020 with the rise of the Padres, who are very much built to last. But as of now, I don¡¯t see a compelling reason why that gap should close completely.

Though I do leave the door open for Padres GM A.J. Preller to make 15 trades between now and Opening Day that make me feel otherwise, for now I am expecting the Dodgers to win their ninth straight division title. Are you sick of them yet?

universo-virtual.com
buytrendz.net
thisforall.net
benchpressgains.com
qthzb.com
mindhunter9.com
dwjqp1.com
secure-signup.net
ahaayy.com
soxtry.com
tressesindia.com
puresybian.com
krpano-chs.com
cre8workshop.com
hdkino.org
peixun021.com
qz786.com
utahperformingartscenter.org
maw-pr.com
zaaksen.com
ypxsptbfd7.com
worldqrmconference.com
shangyuwh.com
eejssdfsdfdfjsd.com
playminecraftfreeonline.com
trekvietnamtour.com
your-business-articles.com
essaywritingservice10.com
hindusamaaj.com
joggingvideo.com
wandercoups.com
onlinenewsofindia.com
worldgraphic-team.com
bnsrz.com
wormblaster.net
tongchengchuyange0004.com
internetknowing.com
breachurch.com
peachesnginburlesque.com
dataarchitectoo.com
clientfunnelformula.com
30pps.com
cherylroll.com
ks2252.com
webmanicura.com
osostore.com
softsmob.com
sofietsshotel.com
facetorch.com
nylawyerreview.com
apapromotions.com
shareparelli.com
goeaglepointe.com
thegreenmanpubphuket.com
karotorossian.com
publicsensor.com
taiwandefence.com
epcsur.com
odskc.com
inzziln.info
leaiiln.info
cq-oa.com
dqtianshun.com
southstills.com
tvtv98.com
thewellington-hotel.com
bccaipiao.com
colectoresindustrialesgs.com
shenanddcg.com
capriartfilmfestival.com
replicabreitlingsale.com
thaiamarinnewtoncorner.com
gkmcww.com
mbnkbj.com
andrewbrennandesign.com
cod54.com
luobinzhang.com
bartoysdirect.com
taquerialoscompadresdc.com
aaoodln.info
amcckln.info
drvrnln.info
dwabmln.info
fcsjoln.info
hlonxln.info
kcmeiln.info
kplrrln.info
fatcatoons.com
91guoys.com
signupforfreehosting.com
faithfirst.net
zjyc28.com
tongchengjinyeyouyue0004.com
nhuan6.com
oldgardensflowers.com
lightupthefloor.com
bahamamamas-stjohns.com
ly2818.com
905onthebay.com
fonemenu.com
notanothermovie.com
ukrainehighclassescort.com
meincmagazine.com
av-5858.com
yallerdawg.com
donkeythemovie.com
corporatehospitalitygroup.com
boboyy88.com
miteinander-lernen.com
dannayconsulting.com
officialtomsshoesoutletstore.com
forsale-amoxil-amoxicillin.net
generictadalafil-canada.net
guitarlessonseastlondon.com
lesliesrestaurants.com
mattyno9.com
nri-homeloans.com
rtgvisas-qatar.com
salbutamolventolinonline.net
sportsinjuries.info
topsedu.xyz
xmxm7.com
x332.xyz
sportstrainingblog.com
autopartspares.com
readguy.net
soniasegreto.com
bobbygdavis.com
wedsna.com
rgkntk.com
bkkmarketplace.com
zxqcwx.com
breakupprogram.com
boxcardc.com
unblockyoutubeindonesia.com
fabulousbookmark.com
beat-the.com
guatemala-sailfishing-vacations-charters.com
magie-marketing.com
kingstonliteracy.com
guitaraffinity.com
eurelookinggoodapparel.com
howtolosecheekfat.net
marioncma.org
oliviadavismusic.com
shantelcampbellrealestate.com
shopleborn13.com
topindiafree.com
v-visitors.net
qazwsxedcokmijn.com
parabis.net
terriesandelin.com
luxuryhomme.com
studyexpanse.com
ronoom.com
djjky.com
053hh.com
originbluei.com
baucishotel.com
33kkn.com
intrinsiqresearch.com
mariaescort-kiev.com
mymaguk.com
sponsored4u.com
crimsonclass.com
bataillenavale.com
searchtile.com
ze-stribrnych-struh.com
zenithalhype.com
modalpkv.com
bouisset-lafforgue.com
useupload.com
37r.net
autoankauf-muenster.com
bantinbongda.net
bilgius.com
brabustermagazine.com
indigrow.org
miicrosofts.net
mysmiletravel.com
selinasims.com
spellcubesapp.com
usa-faction.com
snn01.com
hope-kelley.com
bancodeprofissionais.com
zjccp99.com
liturgycreator.com
weedsmj.com
majorelenco.com
colcollect.com
androidnews-jp.com
hypoallergenicdogsnames.com
dailyupdatez.com
foodphotographyreviews.com
cricutcom-setup.com
chprowebdesign.com
katyrealty-kanepa.com
tasramar.com
bilgipinari.org
four-am.com
indiarepublicday.com
inquick-enbooks.com
iracmpi.com
kakaschoenen.com
lsm99flash.com
nana1255.com
ngen-niagara.com
technwzs.com
virtualonlinecasino1345.com
wallpapertop.net
nova-click.com
abeautifulcrazylife.com
diggmobile.com
denochemexicana.com
eventhalfkg.com
medcon-taiwan.com
life-himawari.com
myriamshomes.com
nightmarevue.com
allstarsru.com
bestofthebuckeyestate.com
bestofthefirststate.com
bestwireless7.com
declarationintermittent.com
findhereall.com
jingyou888.com
lsm99deal.com
lsm99galaxy.com
moozatech.com
nuagh.com
patliyo.com
philomenamagikz.net
rckouba.net
saturnunipessoallda.com
tallahasseefrolics.com
thematurehardcore.net
totalenvironment-inthatquietearth.com
velislavakaymakanova.com
vermontenergetic.com
sizam-design.com
kakakpintar.com
begorgeouslady.com
1800birks4u.com
2wheelstogo.com
6strip4you.com
bigdata-world.net
emailandco.net
gacapal.com
jharpost.com
krishnaastro.com
lsm99credit.com
mascalzonicampani.com
sitemapxml.org
thecityslums.net
topagh.com
flairnetwebdesign.com
bangkaeair.com
beneventocoupon.com
noternet.org
oqtive.com
smilebrightrx.com
decollage-etiquette.com
1millionbestdownloads.com
7658.info
bidbass.com
devlopworldtech.com
digitalmarketingrajkot.com
fluginfo.net
naqlafshk.com
passion-decouverte.com
playsirius.com
spacceleratorintl.com
stikyballs.com
top10way.com
yokidsyogurt.com
zszyhl.com
16firthcrescent.com
abogadolaboralistamd.com
apk2wap.com
aromacremeria.com
banparacard.com
bosmanraws.com
businessproviderblog.com
caltonosa.com
calvaryrevivalchurch.org
chastenedsoulwithabrokenheart.com
cheminotsgardcevennes.com
cooksspot.com
cqxzpt.com
deesywig.com
deltacartoonmaps.com
despixelsetdeshommes.com
duocoracaobrasileiro.com
fareshopbd.com
goodpainspills.com
kobisitecdn.com
makaigoods.com
mgs1454.com
piccadillyresidences.com
radiolaondafresca.com
rubendorf.com
searchengineimprov.com
sellmyhrvahome.com
shugahouseessentials.com
sonihullquad.com
subtractkilos.com
valeriekelmansky.com
vipasdigitalmarketing.com
voolivrerj.com
zeelonggroup.com
1015southrockhill.com
10x10b.com
111-online-casinos.com
191cb.com
3665arpentunitd.com
aitesonics.com
bag-shokunin.com
brightotech.com
communication-digitale-services.com
covoakland.org
dariaprimapack.com
freefortniteaccountss.com
gatebizglobal.com
global1entertainmentnews.com
greatytene.com
hiroshiwakita.com
iktodaypk.com
jahatsakong.com
meadowbrookgolfgroup.com
newsbharati.net
platinumstudiosdesign.com
slotxogamesplay.com
strikestaruk.com
trucosdefortnite.com
ufabetrune.com
weddedtowhitmore.com
12940brycecanyonunitb.com
1311dietrichoaks.com
2monarchtraceunit303.com
601legendhill.com
850elaine.com
adieusolasomade.com
andora-ke.com
bestslotxogames.com
cannagomcallen.com
endlesslyhot.com
iestpjva.com
ouqprint.com
pwmaplefest.com
qtylmr.com
rb88betting.com
buscadogues.com
1007macfm.com
born-wild.com
growthinvests.com
promocode-casino.com
proyectogalgoargentina.com
wbthompson-art.com
whitemountainwheels.com
7thavehvl.com
developmethis.com
funkydogbowties.com
travelodgegrandjunction.com
gao-town.com
globalmarketsuite.com
blogshippo.com
hdbka.com
proboards67.com
outletonline-michaelkors.com
kalkis-research.com
thuthuatit.net
buckcash.com
hollistercanada.com
docterror.com
asadart.com
vmayke.org
erwincomputers.com
dirimart.org
okkii.com
loteriasdecehegin.com
mountanalog.com
healingtaobritain.com
ttxmonitor.com
bamthemes.com
nwordpress.com
11bolabonanza.com
avgo.top