WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- Edwin Díaz's velocity is down from its lofty heights of the past.
According to the stadium radar gun on Wednesday in the Mets¡¯ 8-2 win over the Astros, Diaz¡¯s four-seam fastball sat 93-95 mph, similar to where it was in his previous Grapefruit League outing last Thursday against the Red Sox. Multiple scouts in attendance had D¨ªaz a touch higher than that, and a Mets official said that he was mostly in the mid-90s. (Statcast data is not available at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, where the game took place.)
Between appearances, D¨ªaz hit 97 mph in a Minor League outing, according to manager Carlos Mendoza, who called that back-fields performance -- like Wednesday¡¯s scoreless inning against the Astros -- encouraging. He praised his closer¡¯s ¡°conviction.¡± Mendoza also predicted that D¨ªaz¡¯s velocity will further increase once the adrenaline of real games arrives next week.
But what if it doesn¡¯t? While it can be easy to dismiss Spring Training radar gun readings, this sort of thing isn¡¯t typical for D¨ªaz even in March. The closer entered Wednesday¡¯s play averaging 95.7 mph on his four-seamer, his lowest benchmark since Statcast began showing up at Grapefruit League stadiums in 2020.
For comparison: Two years ago, before he injured his knee, D¨ªaz averaged 99 mph in spring games. Even last year, in his return from surgery, he averaged 97. In those two springs combined, D¨ªaz threw a total of two pitches below 95 mph. One of the rival scouts watching D¨ªaz on Wednesday noted that he doesn¡¯t quite look like ¡°the same guy.¡±
Yet D¨ªaz, Mendoza and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner offered a dissenting opinion.
¡°I know when the season starts, everything will come up,¡± the closer said. ¡°So I don¡¯t have any concern about that. My main thing here is to feel good, pitch more frequently.¡±
Although D¨ªaz hasn¡¯t allowed a run in his past three Grapefruit League appearances, he has found trouble in all of them. On March 9 against the Nationals, the closer walked two batters before escaping the inning. Four days later, D¨ªaz allowed a leadoff double but prevented that runner from scoring as well. Wednesday, it was more of the same for D¨ªaz, who ceded a pair of hits but no actual damage.
It¡¯s entirely possible that the days of D¨ªaz sitting 99 mph with his fastball, as he did in the Timmy Trumpet dream season of 2022, are gone forever. D¨ªaz¡¯s average four-seamer last season registered at 97.5 mph, and -- without rounding up -- he threw only 12 pitches in the triple digits. In 2022, D¨ªaz reached triple digits 105 times, topping out at 102.8.
Maybe he can rediscover that form at some point. If not, it¡¯s worth questioning how much it matters. D¨ªaz¡¯s best season may have also been his hardest-throwing season, but he has been an elite reliever in the past while averaging less than 98 mph with his fastball. In 2018, for example, D¨ªaz carded the slowest full-season fastball velocity of his career. He finished with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.61 FIP.
If there¡¯s a lesson there, it¡¯s that command tends to matter far more than velocity. Ninety-seven may not be 101, but for a pitcher like D¨ªaz, it should still be plenty.
¡°Whenever you can control the fastball, that gets hitters to speed up, to commit to the fastball ¡ that¡¯s when you get hitters off-balance,¡± said new Mets reliever A.J. Minter, who has admired D¨ªaz from afar for years. ¡°When he has that life and he¡¯s pounding the strike zone with that fastball, that¡¯s when you get the butt-out swings and misses.¡±
D¨ªaz¡¯s velocity may have slackened post-injury, but the reality is his control did, too. The right-hander walked, on average, nearly three-quarters of a batter more per nine innings last year than he did in 2022. He also allowed nearly three times as many homers, which are generally the product of leaving balls over the middle of the plate.
Consider this, then, a case of multiple things being true. Yes, D¨ªaz¡¯s velocity is down this spring (and has been down for more than a year). Yes, he still has more than enough of it to succeed. Yes, 2022 was a career year that D¨ªaz may never replicate. And yes, he can still be elite in spite of that.
¡°There are certain relievers out there in the world where you feel like you don¡¯t have a chance, and you dread getting to the ninth inning to face that guy,¡± Minter said. ¡°That¡¯s what you want as a closer. That¡¯s what Edwin provides.¡±