'Walltimore' no more: The effect of Camden Yards' latest change

Three years later, we¡¯re back at it again.

After three seasons of batters grimacing at the expanded left-field wall in Camden Yards ¨C ¡°Walltimore,¡± as it maybe-sort-of-affectionately came to be known ¨C the Orioles announced in November that they¡¯d be making the dimensions a little friendlier to hitters. That meant moving in the wall, somewhere between 9-20 feet closer to the plate at various points, and shorter by 3-6 feet, depending on where you¡¯re looking.

It¡¯s not the original wall, which was even shorter and stood for decades through the 2021 season. It¡¯s not the enormous Walltimore setup, either. It¡¯s something in between.

¡°It became clear to us and me and our staff, our coaches, our players, the feedback we received over three years of lived experience that it was a directionally correct move, but we overcorrected,¡± Baltimore general manager Mike Elias noted in November.

Naturally, it¡¯s a topic of conversation for players. Free agent signee Tyler O¡¯Neill, a right-handed pull-side slugger, said, ¡°I think it¡¯s good for guys like me, obviously,¡± while Statcast data shows that Ryan Mountcastle lost 11 homers due to the wall change. That seems like a lot, though remember it works both ways: Former Orioles pitcher Cole Irvin was spared the damage of 10 more dingers.

But with yet another change, what you want to know is: What will this version of the park do? Let¡¯s find out.

We first did this three years ago, trying to estimate how many home runs Walltimore was likely to cost. At the time, we estimated ¡°50 to 60-ish lost home runs a year,¡± based on the previous four years of data, and that ended up working out reasonably well for us, because the data shows that 137 potential home runs were eaten up by the expanded wall ¨C an average of 46 annually. Mountcastle (11), Austin Hays (eight) and Anthony Santander (seven) lost the most from the hitter side. Pitchers Irvin (10), Dean Kremer (eight) and Grayson Rodriguez (six) were spared the most.

Overall, Camden went from baseball¡¯s most homer-friendly park in 2021 to a more reasonable 14th in 2024. It¡¯s a little more extreme if we focus on righty batters only, where it went from the most homer-friendly in 2021 to 22nd-most friendly in 2024. This new iteration ought to land somewhere in between. But by how much?

If we look at the three full seasons of play with Walltimore, and apply the trajectory of the batted balls to what the in-between 2025 wall will be, we end up with ¡­ well, relatively consistent numbers. Two to three dozen balls per year that weren't homers in the recent past now would have been, like this deep Shohei Ohtani flyout in 2022.

Home runs created by moving the wall in for 2025

• 2024 // 29
• 2023 // 22
• 2022 // 29

If those numbers sound lower than they did before, when we estimated around 50, they should ¡ª this new wall is in between the two extremes of the original wall (1992-2021) and Walltimore (2022-¡¯24). The impact, therefore, should be, too.

While it¡¯s true that 50 non-homers in 2024 would have been out of the original park, it¡¯s important to remember that what we¡¯ll see in 2025 isn¡¯t the original park. It's 29, comparing the 2025 wall to the 2024 wall, and 80 over the course of Walltimore¡¯s three-year reign.

You can see that in action here, thanks to this visual by MLB¡¯s Andrew Garcia Phillips.

Of those 80 lost homers, exactly half turned into outs. Almost all of the remainder became doubles (32), with a few scattered triples (seven) and one single, that coming in 2022 when Giancarlo Stanton hit an absolute frozen rope off the wall. It was almost evenly split between Orioles batters (39 lost) and Orioles pitchers (41 prevented), too.

So, which batters will it help the most ¨C and which pitchers might be upset?

Most homers gained 2022-24 with new dimensions (batters)

• 6 // Mountcastle
• 5 // Adley Rutschman
• 3 // [seven players tied]

¡°It¡¯s a good feeling knowing you can pull the ball again and get good results out of it, so hopefully I can,¡± Mountcastle told MLB.com's Jake Rill.

Yet that's merely six added homers over three seasons, so while it helps Mountcastle a little, it¡¯s not as much as you¡¯d think. Four of those came in 2022 and just two in 2024, and four of the six were doubles anyway. On the other hand, we¡¯re not accounting for the possibility that he might have changed his approach given the changing value proposition in left, and indeed in 2024, his pull rate was lower than ever and his ground ball rate was higher than ever. Whether that was about the wall or just the way his career is progressing remains to be seen.

Most homers prevented 2022-24 with new dimensions (pitchers)

• 6 // Kremer
• 5 // Rodriguez
• 5 // Irvin

Kremer, a useful starter who doesn¡¯t miss that many bats, might be the unhappiest on the staff ¨C he was saved two homers in the span of about 10 minutes in one game against the Astros last year.

Entertainingly, the visiting starter saved the most extra damage was J.P. Sears of the A¡¯s, who despite making only four starts in Baltimore was saved four additional homers to go on top of the five he actually did allow.

The two most impactful moments changed by Walltimore

What about the biggest moments? Did we see any potentially game-changing moments that might have played out differently had the 2025 wall been in place over the last three years rather than Walltimore? As it turns out ¡­ yes.

For this, we¡¯ll turn to Leverage Index, which measures the importance of a plate appearance given the context ¨C inning, score, outs, runners on base ¨C and gives an average importance a score of 1.00. So, for example, when Anthony Santander was cost a homer in a 2022 game against the A¡¯s, it came in a game that Baltimore was already winning 7-1 in the sixth inning. It was hardly a high-leverage moment, and it had a score of .06, or only 6% as impactful as even an average opportunity.

If we flip it the other way, there were two moments when Wallitmore swallowed up a home run and the Leverage Index was at least 4.00, which is to say four times as important as average.

In September 2022, pinch-hitter Trey Mancini stepped up with two outs in the 10th inning, his team up 2-1. It¡¯s important to remember here that despite the long-time Oriole Mancini wearing orange, he was doing so for the Astros, who had traded for him earlier that summer. With 2025¡¯s walls, this was a homer for a valuable insurance run. Instead, it stayed in the yard, he never scored, and the Orioles tied the game in the bottom of the inning (though Houston would win in the 11th).

Earlier that summer, it was a similar situation. On May 22, the O¡¯s and Rays were tied 6-6 in the bottom of the 10th inning. Ryan McKenna stepped up with two on and one out, and crushed a Dusten Knight changeup to left for a walk-off win ¡­

¡­ or at least it would have been in 2025. Instead, left fielder Randy Arozarena easily hauled it in. The Orioles wouldn¡¯t score, though they would later walk off the Rays.

The missing home run that would have extended a record

Remember back in 2022, when Aaron Judge hit 62 home runs, setting a new American League record? It could have been 63, if not for this May double off the very top of the wall.

RIP to ¡°But Not In Baltimore?¡±

Given how deep Walltimore was, an ongoing fun bit of the last few years was using Statcast data to find home runs around the Majors that would have been out of every single other park except for Baltimore, like this Anthony Volpe grand slam in the World Series, which would have been out of 29 of the 30 parks. Guess which one would have held it?

There were, and we promise this is true, as supplied by MLB data expert Jason Bernard, exactly 1,050 home runs hit across the Majors over the last three seasons that would have gone out of every park except for Baltimore. They look like this, and that, and yes, that too. That¡¯s a number that¡¯s not terribly meaningful without context, so here it is: No other park had even half as many, with San Francisco¡¯s 479 such balls a distant, distant, distant second.

We¡¯re guessing it won¡¯t play out quite like that this season. The 2025 wall, at least, should play a little more neutrally, neither as homer-friendly as it originally was nor as deflating as Walltimore was. We mostly hope it stays this way for a long time to come.