Fantasy rankings: Best relievers to draft
Sarah Langs
@SlangsOnSportsRacking up saves and strikeouts is of utmost importance for your fantasy team, not to mention the way your bullpen choices will contribute to ERA and WHIP, plus holds, if your league counts those. In other words: Choose wisely.
We¡¯ve seen plenty of turnover in dominant relief arms over the last few years. A year ago, Edwin D¨ªaz and Kenley Jansen were likely among most leagues' top picks for relievers, and now they are in Tier 3. But many stalwarts remain, joined by newcomers in the top two tiers who are coming off of strong seasons, like Liam Hendriks and Taylor Rogers. It¡¯s hard to know exactly who will turn into a reliable closer from one year to the next -- but here¡¯s a best estimation.
As Spring Training begins, here's a look at the top fantasy options at relief pitcher, via MLB.com's 2020 rankings.
Tier 1: Josh Hader, Kirby Yates
Hader took on more of a traditional closer¡¯s role in 2019, a definite boon for fantasy owners. After his epic 2018 in which he had 143 strikeouts in 81 1/3 innings, but just 12 saves, he notched 37 saves in '19. He has 281 strikeouts over the last two seasons, 58 more than any other reliever. Steamer projects him for another 100-strikeout, 25-save season in 2020.
Yates has established himself over the last two seasons, too, and doesn¡¯t appear to be going anywhere. He led the Majors with 41 saves in 2019 while striking out a career-high 101 batters. Steamer has him at 32 saves this season, along with 88 strikeouts -- strong numbers for the back end of your bullpen.
Tier 2: Roberto Osuna, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks, Taylor Rogers
If Hader and Yates are already gone, these five are great choices, too. Osuna was second in the Majors last year with 38 saves and had 73 strikeouts, to boot. He¡¯s projected for another 30-save, 70-strikeout year in 2020, which would be the fourth such season of his career.
Chapman¡¯s 37 saves in '19 were his most since 2013, and his 2.21 ERA was his lowest since 2016. His strikeout rate was 36.2 percent, down from the 40 percent rates we¡¯ve seen from him in recent years, but he still got plenty of batters out when it mattered. His slider has turned into a great second pitch, which he¡¯s used 25 percent of the time or more in each of the last two years. In '19, he had a .159 opponent's batting average in at-bats ending on the pitch, and got whiffs on 43 percent of swings against it. That, coupled with his 98 mph average four-seamer velocity, is no easy test for a hitter at the plate in a high-leverage situation.
Hand throws a high-whiff slider and isn¡¯t a high-velocity reliever, but it works for him: His 34.7 percent strikeout rate was in the top 20 among relievers in '19. His 34 saves were tied for fifth. Hendriks¡¯ 2018 to '19 turnaround was remarkable, and part of the overarching theme that relievers can be quite hard to predict. In 2018, he had a 4.13 ERA in 25 appearances -- in 2019, he had a 1.80 ERA in 75 games. He was an All-Star for the first time in his career at age 30.
Rogers is an intriguing candidate as the closer for the Twins, who are expected to win a lot of games -- which could put him in line for a lot of saves. He had 30 saves last year in his first year in a full closer¡¯s role, anchored by his slider, which had a .215 xwOBA in '19, and his sinker.
Tier 3: Kenley Jansen, Archie Bradley, Ken Giles, Héctor Neris, Nick Anderson, Edwin Díaz
Jansen has been prone to allowing home runs more in the last two seasons than previously, but overall, he¡¯s still the closer on a winning team -- which means there should be ample save opportunities. But it¡¯s worth noting to beware: He has allowed 22 homers in 134 2/3 innings in the regular season since the start of 2018. From 2014-17, he threw 254 2/3 innings and allowed 20 homers.
Bradley is expected to be the D-backs¡¯ closer in 2020, a role he took on in the second half of last season and handled ably. He entered his July 30 appearance at Yankee Stadium with a 4.30 ERA in 41 games. He notched his first save that day, and from then on, had a 2.10 ERA, .198 opponents¡¯ batting average and was 18-for-19 in save opportunities.
Giles¡¯ stuff is great, but his saves quantity is a bit of a question. He stops hitters in their tracks with a slider that had a 54 percent whiff rate in '19 and a four-seamer that averaged 97 mph. Neris had a strong rebound from his 2018, when he had a 5.10 ERA, notching 28 saves and posting a 2.93 ERA in 2019.
Anderson was a rookie who turned 29 last season, but don¡¯t let the late arrival fool you. He had 110 strikeouts and 18 walks in 65 innings, including just two walks in 21 1/3 innings after he joined the Rays late in the year.
The question in this group is certainly D¨ªaz, who went from the consensus No. 1 pick among relievers to one with a 5.59 ERA in the span of a year. Despite the struggles, his underlying numbers remained impressive -- he had a strikeout rate in the top 1 percent of the league for the second straight year. He¡¯s a bit of an unknown, but counting on him doing better than he did in 2019 is pretty much a given, so he could be a good pick for your 'pen.
Kennedy entered 2019 without a save and just two career relief appearances, then proceeded to go 30-for-34 in opportunities. Of course, he¡¯s slated to close for the Royals, so take that with the appropriate grain of salt.
Colom¨¦ had a quiet 30 saves in Chicago last year, and his team is expected to be better, which could mean more opportunities. One thing to keep an eye on: He had a great 2.80 ERA in 2019, but a 4.08 FIP, so some regression could be in the cards.
Kimbrel¡¯s season just never got onto the right footing, with his in-season signing and struggles, as he posted a 6.53 ERA, by far the worst of his career. He dealt with both knee and elbow issues, though neither ended up requiring offseason surgery. He could be a good bounceback candidate, with a normal Spring Training and ramp-up to the season, or this could be the beginning of a decline.
Iglesias had 28 saves in 2017 and has put up 30-plus in each year since. His 4.16 ERA in '19 was higher than it¡¯d been in either of the two prior years, but his strikeout rate was also a career-high 31.9 percent, which is helpful. Pretty much every single possible projection system predicts he¡¯ll have 31 saves in ¡®20.
Boston¡¯s bullpen struggles overall without Kimbrel in '19 were well documented, but Workman was a rock and a workhorse. He only had 16 saves, but he pitched 71 2/3 innings with a 1.88 ERA and 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Steamer puts him in the 30-save range in '20, with 10-plus strikeouts per nine again.
Robles emerged for the Angels last season so much so that he got his own WWE Undertaker-themed entrance video. He saved 23 games for the Halos with a 2.48 ERA, and could get even more chances if the Angels are competitive in 2020.
Steamer projects Jim¨¦nez to amass 29 saves, which could be a stretch on the Tigers, but he showed last year that he can reliably provide strikeouts -- at a 12.4 per nine clip -- even in years where he allows more runs.
Doolittle has had more than 20 saves in three straight seasons and is predicted to provide another 60 innings of solid relief for the Nats. Leclerc took an unexpected step back in 2019, with a 4.33 ERA a year removed from a 1.56 mark, but Steamer projects him to land somewhere in the middle for 2020. He¡¯s had 13-plus strikeouts per nine in each of the last two seasons and is projected to land just shy of that this year.
Kela will be the Pirates¡¯ closer in 2020, on the heels of a season where he missed significant time with right shoulder inflammation. He was good when he did pitch, though, and has had double-digit strikeouts per nine in each of his five big league seasons.
Gallegos had a .192 wOBA on his slider and got whiffs on 50 percent of the swings against the pitch. His 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings in a hefty 74 innings pitched is not to be ignored, either.
It feels like a while ago now, but Smith was the first big-ticket free agent to sign this winter. He¡¯s been solid, with 12-plus strikeouts per nine in each of the last two seasons for the Giants, and should have a similar output for the Braves in 2020.
He¡¯ll reunite in that bullpen with former Giants teammate Melancon, who was traded during last season. Melancon¡¯s 2019 was certainly a bounceback of sorts, and he and Smith should help bolster a Braves bullpen that was in need. Melancon, however, isn¡¯t a big strikeout guy -- so the way the closer¡¯s role is allocated between him and Smith will be crucial to his value.
With both of the two aforementioned pitchers gone from the Giants, Watson¡¯s role becomes even more clear in San Francisco, where he was once part of a very deep bullpen that was expected to trade multiple players at last year¡¯s Trade Deadline. Steamer projects him for 20 saves.
The 35-year-old Kintzler signed a one-year deal with the Marlins, which will be his fourth team in four years. He isn¡¯t much of a strikeout artist, but Steamer does project him for 25-plus saves.