What these 2 deals tell us about the free-agent pitching market

December 3rd, 2024

Two more starting pitchers came off the free-agent board in recent days as teams continue to fill the middle and back end of their rotations.

agreed to a two-year, $34 million deal with the Mets that includes an opt-out after 2025, while landed $29 million over two years from the Cubs.

¡°It takes two solid starters off the board,¡± a National League executive said. ¡°It signals teams are starting to move.¡±

Just how impactful these two signings will be in terms of the market remains to be seen, but they serve as a reminder pitching remains at a premium around the Majors.

¡°I don¡¯t view either signing as having any wide-scale ripple effect,¡± a National League executive said. ¡°Both signings simply reinforce that starting pitching remains expensive on the free-agent market.¡±

Just how expensive? Consider that Boyd -- who posted a 2.72 ERA in eight starts (39 2/3 innings) last season after returning from Tommy John surgery -- has thrown 202 2/3 innings over the past four seasons, topping out at 78 2/3 in 2021 during that time.

¡°It¡¯s certainly fair to question the wisdom in providing that level of dollars to a starting pitcher who has failed to reach even 80 innings in any of the past four seasons,¡± the executive added.

Here are three other takeaways from the latest pitching deals:

The big two are still out there
Blake Snell¡¯s deal with the Dodgers gave us a good indication of what and are looking at in free agency, after the two-time Cy Young Award winner landed a five-year deal worth $182 million (with $65 million in deferrals that take the present-day value to roughly $31 million per season).

Both Burnes and Fried are younger than Snell and should expect to get longer-term deals of at least six or seven years, while their average annual values should also top Snell¡¯s contract. And while Snell¡¯s signing took one of the top three arms off the market, it seems likely that both Burnes and Fried will wait until Juan Soto signs somewhere before doing the same, as the runners-up for Soto will find themselves with a lot of money to spend.

¡°Soto is holding up the top of the market, but it¡¯s still early December,¡± a National League executive said. ¡°If I¡¯m Burnes and Fried, I¡¯m not signing until Soto signs. The teams that don¡¯t get him will have plenty of payroll flexibility -- and they could be on tilt as they try to pivot elsewhere.¡±

The price for mid-tier starters is set
Aside from Snell¡¯s huge deal, we¡¯ve seen four other starters sign deals worth eight figures annually, giving us a firm idea of what second- and third-tier starting pitchers should expect to get this offseason.

Michael Wacha re-signed with the Royals before he officially became a free agent, getting $51 million guaranteed over three years (plus a $14 million club option for 2028), while Yusei Kikuchi signed with the Angels for three years and $63 million, an average annual value of $21 million.

The latest deals for Montas and Boyd fall beneath both Wacha and Kikuchi, but all four contracts should help set the market for free-agent pitchers such as , , , , and , all of whom are likely to fall somewhere in that range.

¡°I think the key is that some of the guys they might impact the most -- like Manaea and Severino -- have Draft picks attached to them, so they are kind of a different animal,¡± an NL executive said. ¡°But I think early signings like those always give a pretty good idea of how the players and agents are viewing the jobs that might be available and the money that clubs have to spend.¡±

Manaea, Severino and Pivetta all rejected the qualifying offer, so any team that signs them (assuming they don¡¯t return to their 2024 clubs) will surrender Draft-pick compensation. The four aforementioned starters who have signed did not have Draft-pick compensation attached, which means others in that category -- Flaherty, Eovaldi and Heaney, specifically -- could have an easier time finding deals than Manaea, Severino and Pivetta.

¡°What¡¯s really interesting to debate is how much added value each of those guys received by not having a QO attached to them,¡± the NL exec said. ¡°It might be worth a little more money to clubs to know that they don¡¯t have to give up a pick as well.¡±

¡°No one is in a hurry to punt their picks,¡± another NL executive said.

The Mets are sticking with their rotation approach
Last winter, the Mets signed Manaea (two years, $28 million with an opt-out) and Severino (one year, $13 million), adding them to a rotation that already included Jose Quintana, who inked a two-year, $26 million deal with New York the previous winter.

That trio delivered 534 quality innings (3.70 ERA) over 94 starts, stabilizing the Mets¡¯ rotation en route to their 89-win season and NL Wild Card berth.

So even with bigger names such as Burnes, Fried and Snell available, it was hardly a surprise that Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns signed Montas over the weekend. The shorter-term contracts for veteran starters worked well for New York last year, so why not try the same approach going forward?

¡°The Mets are clearly saving the big money for Soto,¡± an American League executive said. ¡°If they sign him, it¡¯s going to cost at least $600 million; if they don¡¯t, they can always pivot to [Pete] Alonso, [Alex] Bregman or one of the big pitchers. Either way, they had three holes in the rotation to fill, so the Montas signing takes care of one of them.¡±

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