Ranking the top 10 free-agent bats
A Hot Stove edition of the Hitter Power Rankings
When the Hot Stove gets sizzling this offseason, starting pitching is going to create a lot of the hubbub.
The market for bats, on the other hand, has one huge name at the top and a number of question marks below that. Clubs looking to bolster their offenses via free agency will have their work cut out for them in deciding which are the savvy investments that will deliver in 2024 and beyond. No doubt, there is still quite a bit of available talent here, but some leaps of faith will be required.
A similar challenge faced our MLB.com voting panel in constructing this free-agent edition of the Hitter Power Rankings. As they have throughout the year, voters focused solely on offensive might when casting their ballots, so while some free-agent position players offer slick gloves, those were not considered here.
1. Shohei Ohtani, DH
Before missing most of the final month of the season, Ohtani led five straight Hitter Power Rankings and placed second in a sixth. So it¡¯s no surprise that he is No. 1 here, and honestly, it was a no-brainer pick for our panel. Ohtani, who almost certainly will win his second AL MVP Award on Thursday, just led the AL with 44 home runs and 325 total bases despite missing most of the final month. He also topped the list in OBP (.412), slugging (.654), OPS (1.066) and OPS+ (184). It¡¯s no wonder he¡¯s the most sought-after free agent of this offseason and has a shot to land a record contract despite the fact that he won¡¯t pitch until 2025.
2. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B
It¡¯s remarkable that Bellinger is in this spot considering that he posted a .542 OPS just two years ago and wasn¡¯t much better (.654) in 2022. Of course, this past season was a triumphant rebound for Bellinger, who went from non-tendered by the Dodgers to hitting .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 97 RBIs and 20 steals with the Cubs. The one-year deal Bellinger signed with Chicago last offseason was a steal, but he will require a much larger commitment this time around. Given his up-and-down career, it¡¯s a fascinating free-agent case.
3. J.D. Martinez, DH
Martinez benefits considerably from the fact that these rankings are focused only on hitting, because the 36-year-old is basically a full-time DH at this point, playing a total of 12 outfield innings in 2023. With that said, the man can still really, really hit. He proved that after signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers, slugging at his highest rate (.572) since 2018 and racking up 33 homers, 103 RBIs and a 134 OPS+. For a club that doesn¡¯t mind devoting its DH slot to one player -- and doesn¡¯t sign Ohtani -- Martinez will be an attractive option.
4. Jorge Soler, DH/RF
While he has played more outfield recently than Martinez, Soler very much fits into the category of DH types who can mash more than enough to justify the gig. Soler declined his 2024 player option with Miami and instead is testing free agency after earning his first All-Star nod in ¡®23, when he launched 36 homers (second only to Ohtani among players on the open market). While Soler will swing and miss plenty, he crushes baseballs when he makes contact, helping him rank in the 94th percentile among MLB hitters in expected slugging and expected wOBA.
5. Matt Chapman, 3B
Set aside the Gold Glove defense, and there are some reasons for concern here alongside the reasons for optimism. Chapman got off to an MVP-caliber start in 2023 (1.051 OPS through 33 games), then struggled the rest of the way (.666). He ranked at the very top of the league in hard-hit rate and barrel rate but had the lowest full-season homer total of his career (17). Still, Chapman has been above average with the bat on an annual basis and should garner a great deal of interest at a thin position.
6. Teoscar Hernández, RF
There is not much mystery with Hern¨¢ndez. He will swing and miss a lot, strike out plenty and walk sparingly. But when he connects, the ball will go far. That¡¯s the tradeoff facing interested teams after a season in which Hern¨¢ndez K¡¯d a whopping 211 times but still smacked 26 homers and drove in 93 runs. He also enjoyed two huge months (June and August) but didn¡¯t reach a .700 OPS in any of the other four, so Hern¨¢ndez will be searching for more consistent production in 2024.
7. Rhys Hoskins, 1B/DH
Don¡¯t forget about Hoskins, who lost his age-30 season to a torn ACL and now has seemingly lost his place in the Phillies¡¯ plans, given Bryce Harper¡¯s permanent move to first base. While Hoskins has never quite lived up to his incredible rookie season back in 2017, he settled in as an extremely reliable power threat and run producer. Over his past two seasons, Hoskins posted OPS+ figures of 129 and 123 -- basically right at his career mark of 125. He should be fully healthy for 2024.
8. Jung Hoo Lee, CF, Kiwoom Heroes (KBO)
Here is the biggest unknown on this list. Lee is expected to be posted this offseason by the Heroes and come over from South Korea. At just 25 years old, Lee offers an enticing all-around skill set, some big KBO numbers and even a notable baseball heritage. (He is known as ¡°Grandson of the Wind¡± because his father, legendary Korean shortstop Jong Beom Lee, was nicknamed ¡°Son of the Wind.¡±) Still, nobody knows how Lee¡¯s obvious talent will translate to the Majors, so while his ceiling may be higher than anyone above him here -- other than Ohtani -- he slots in toward the end of the top 10 for now.
9. Justin Turner, 1B/DH
Turner will celebrate his 39th birthday on Nov. 23, but he continues to swing a valuable bat even while transitioning away from third base. After switching places with Martinez this past season, Turner slashed a solid .276/.345/.455 with 23 homers and 96 RBIs in his Boston debut before declining his 2024 player option. It¡¯s been a graceful decline phase for Turner, whose 114 OPS+ was his lowest since he broke out with the Dodgers in 2014.
10. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF
Gurriel made his first All-Star team and nearly won a World Series with Arizona after coming to the desert via an offseason trade from Toronto. He also rebounded to smack a career-high 24 home runs following a surprising power outage in 2022 (five). Gurriel won't be expected to put up huge numbers for his next team, but he has been a reliably above-average hitter (career 115 OPS+) since arriving in the Majors in 2018.
Also receiving votes: Brandon Belt, Michael Brantley, Jeimer Candelario, Adam Duvall, Mitch Garver, Joc Pederson, Hunter Renfroe
Voters: David Adler, Brett Blueweiss, Paul Casella, Doug Gausepohl, Thomas Harrigan, Sarah Langs, Travis Miller, Ricardo Montes de Oca, Brian Murphy, Sweeny Murti, Manny Randhawa, Efrain Ruiz, Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru, Andrew Simon, David Venn