As pitching market starts to sizzle, these intriguing arms could be up next

December 11th, 2024

DALLAS 每 Less than 48 hours after losing Juan Soto to the Mets, the Yankees made their first big strike of the winter, agreeing with Max Fried on an eight-year, $218 million contract.

It was predictable that the Yankees would pivot quickly after losing Soto, and according to sources, Fried was their top target. They added an eighth year to their offer when no other team was believed to be at more than seven.

※Long deal for a pitcher,§ said a National League executive. ※Long deal for any player, but definitely a long deal for a pitcher. It all comes down to health on him.§

Fried*s deal is the biggest in history for a left-handed starter, surpassing David Price*s seven-year, $217 million contract with the Red Sox nearly a decade ago. It*s also the fourth-largest guaranteed deal ever for a pitcher, trailing only Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($325 million), Gerrit Cole ($324 million) and Stephen Strasburg ($245 million).

※It seems to set them up to deal an arm for something else,§ an AL executive said of the Yankees.

The Yankees currently have seven starting pitchers: Cole, Fried, Carlos Rod車n, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman.

One scenario, according to sources, would be for the Yankees to move one of their young starters 每 most likely Schmidt 每 as part of a trade package to land either Nolan Arenado or Cody Bellinger. Schmidt is arbitration-eligible for three more years, while Gil 每 the AL Rookie of the Year 每 has four years of club control remaining and won*t be eligible for arbitration until next offseason.

Less than two hours after Fried went to the Yankees, another big arm came off the board, as Nathan Eovaldi agreed to a three-year, $75 million deal to return to the Rangers. Eovaldi had been seen as a Plan B for the Red Sox after Boston missed out on Fried, but now the Sox must pivot again to find another arm for their rotation.

What do the Fried and Eovaldi signings mean for the rest of the pitching market?

Fried and Blake Snell (five years, $182 million) have both signed nine-figure contracts this winter, but four-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes appears poised to top both of their deals, with two executives predicting that the right-hander could receive more than $240 million over eight years.

According to sources, the two teams expected to be most aggressive on Burnes are the Blue Jays and Giants, with Toronto considered the favorite. The Blue Jays were prepared to spend $700 million on Juan Soto, and Toronto was among the teams in on Fried before he went to the Yankees. If Toronto 每 which faces the loss of Chris Bassitt after next season and Kevin Gausman following the 2026 campaign 每 is looking to spend big on an ace, Burnes may be their best and last hope.

The Giants have already made one big splash this offseason, signing shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182 million deal. San Francisco is said to be in the market for a frontline starter, but two industry sources were skeptical that the Giants will outbid the Blue Jays if Toronto is determined to sign Burnes.

There are a number of quality free-agent starters available on the tier beneath Burnes, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta and Walker Buehler leading that group. Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki is also available after being officially posted on Tuesday, though as an international amateur free agent, he won*t be able to spark a nine-figure bidding war, putting the 23-year-old in his own distinct category.

The Red Sox, who were among the runners-up in the Soto sweepstakes, took a serious run at Fried this week, but sources said they appear hesitant to spend what it will take to sign Burnes. With Eovaldi off the market, the Red Sox could now pursue a reunion with Pivetta, who declined a qualifying offer from Boston last month. The Draft-pick compensation attached to the right-hander could hamper his market, two NL executives said, making a return to Boston the most logical move for both sides. Boston also has interest in Buehler and might look to the trade market, where White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet is an attractive option, though a number of teams are involved in that race.

Aside from Crochet, other starters potentially available in trades include Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray and Jes迆s Luzardo, according to sources.

Manaea, who turned down the qualifying offer from the Mets. After spending $765 million to sign Soto, the Mets 每 who still need to add another starter after signing Frankie Montas (2 years/$34 million) and Clay Holmes (3 years/$38 million) 每 could bring Manaea back on a multi-year deal.

Other starters to sign this winter include Luis Severino (2 years/$67 million and a 2027 player option with the Athletics), Yusei Kikuchi (3 years/$63 million with the Angels), Matthew Boyd (2 years/$29 million with the Cubs), Shane Bieber (1 year/$14 million with a player option with the Guardians) and Alex Cobb (1 year/$15 million with the Tigers).

Beyond Flaherty, Manaea and Pivetta, other free-agent starters include Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

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