12 predictions for 12 free agents
For the second straight offseason, all eyes seem to be on one marquee free agent as the hot stove heats up.
Last year, it was Shohei Ohtani. This year, it's Juan Soto.
Ohtani ultimately signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers and promptly helped them win the 2024 World Series.
So where will Soto land? And what about Blake Snell? Corbin Burnes? Pete Alonso? Max Fried?
A group of 52 voters from MLB.com recently weighed in on where they think each of those free agents -- and many others -- will ultimately sign this offseason.
Here's a look at the results:
Juan Soto, OF
1. Yankees (52%)
2. Mets (40%)
3. Blue Jays/Dodgers/Giants/Nationals (2% each)
An overwhelming majority of voters believe Soto will stay somewhere in New York, but it's not a foregone conclusion it will be with the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers were still the overall favorite at 52%, but 40% of our voters predict Soto will make the trip across town to Queens.
Soto is coming off a remarkable debut season in the Bronx, hitting .288 with a career-high 41 homers, 109 RBIs, 129 walks and a .989 OPS. He has established himself as one of the best hitters of this generation, having racked up 201 home runs and a .421 on-base percentage over his seven-year career. The only players in MLB history with at least 200 homers and an OBP of at least .420 are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle and Barry Bonds.
And oh, by the way, Soto just turned 26 years old in October.
Other teams receiving votes: N/A
Blake Snell, LHP
1. Giants (21%)
2. Mets (12%)
3. Red Sox (10%)
The Snell sweepstakes saw far more variety than Soto. A remarkable 15 teams received at least one vote, though the most common prediction had Snell staying put in San Francisco.
The two-time Cy Young-winning southpaw was effective when healthy last season, though a pair of month-long IL stints limited Snell to just 20 starts. Still, he's just one year removed from posting an MLB-best 2.25 ERA over 32 starts for the Padres in 2023 en route to winning his second Cy Young Award.
Even with the missed time last season, Snell has been one of the league's more reliable starters since bursting onto the scene in his 2018 Cy Young-winning season with the Rays. He's started 168 games since 2018, which ranks 15th among all pitchers. His 3.03 ERA during that span ranks fifth, behind only Justin Verlander (2.82), Clayton Kershaw (2.83), Max Scherzer (2.89) and Gerrit Cole (2.97).
Other teams receiving votes: Orioles, Padres, Rangers, Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Cubs, Tigers, Braves, Angels, Astros, Cardinals
Corbin Burnes, RHP
1. Mets (31%)
2. Orioles (21%)
3. Dodgers/Red Sox (13% each)
Though the Mets finished second among our voters in the Snell race, they check in as the most popular landing spot for Burnes.
The 30-year-old Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA over 32 starts for the Orioles after being acquired from the Brewers in a February blockbuster. The right-hander earned his fourth consecutive All-Star selection, a streak that began in his 2021 NL Cy Young-winning season with the Brewers.
Over the past four seasons, Burnes ranks fourth in innings pitched (757), second in strikeouts (858), third in WHIP (1.02) and fourth in ERA (2.94; minimum 500 innings pitched).
Other teams receiving votes: Cubs, Tigers, Yankees, Angels, Braves, Giants, Phillies
Max Fried, LHP
1. Dodgers (29%)
2. Cubs (21%)
3. Padres (13%)
No pitcher has posted a better ERA over the past half-decade than Fried. His 2.81 ERA since 2020 leads all big league pitchers during that stretch.
Fried first established himself as a true ace during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season when he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA over 11 starts. He's put up a 3.25 ERA or better in each of the four seasons since, including a 2.48 ERA in 2022 when he finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting.
Fried will turn 31 in January, but he's proven he can be a top-end starter for a contender.
Other teams receiving votes: Braves, Red Sox, Giants, Tigers, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Orioles, Rangers
Pete Alonso, 1B
1. Mets (56%)
2. Yankees (13%)
3. Astros (8%)
Though many wondered if Alonso's final plate appearance in the 2024 postseason would be his last as a Met, the majority of our voters believe the four-time All-Star -- and two-time Home Run Derby champ -- isn't going anywhere.
Though he's had his ups and downs in Queens since hitting an MLB rookie record 53 home runs in 2019, Alonso remains one of the game's premier sluggers. He has 226 home runs over his first six big league seasons. Only Aaron Judge (232) has hit more homers than Alonso since 2019.
Other teams receiving votes: Cardinals, Giants, Rangers, Angels, Cubs, Nationals, Reds, Red Sox, Tigers
Alex Bregman, 3B
1. Astros (56%)
2. Mariners (15%)
3. Yankees (8%)
It's tough to picture Bregman playing anywhere other than Houston -- and a majority of our voters seem to agree.
The two-time World Series champion has taken a step back offensively in recent seasons, but he still put up 26 home runs, 75 RBIs and a 118 OPS+ this season, all while playing well enough defensively to earn his first career Gold Glove Award.
Bregman will turn 31 on March 30.
Other teams receiving votes: Tigers, Blue Jays, Cubs, Nationals, Red Sox, D-backs
Anthony Santander, OF
1. Phillies (17%)
2. Royals (12%)
3. Yankees (10%)
Our voters were all over the place in trying to predict Santander's future landing spot. A whopping 20 teams received at least one vote, and while the Phillies were ultimately mentioned the most, they didn't even crack 20%.
Santander, who turned 30 in October, is coming off a huge year for the O's. He set career highs in home runs (44), RBIs (102), runs (91) and OPS (.814) while also earning his first career All-Star nod.
And while 2024 was certainly the peak so far for Santander, he's still averaged 35 home runs and 95 RBIs per season over the past three years.
Other teams receiving votes: Blue Jays, Cardinals, Giants, Astros, Guardians, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Reds, Tigers
Willy Adames, SS
1. Giants (37%)
2. Dodgers (29%)
3. Braves/Tigers (8% each)
The 29-year-old Adames is coming off an incredible season for the Brewers in which he racked up career highs in homers (32), RBIs (112), stolen bases (21), doubles (33) and runs (93).
And while that's certainly enough to draw plenty of interest on its own, a recent report indicated that Adames is willing to switch positions for the right team or contract. His willingness to switch to either second or third base figures to open up his market even more.
Other teams receiving votes: Brewers, Mariners, Angels, Blue Jays, D-backs, Mets, Red Sox, Yankees
Tanner Scott, LHP
1. Phillies (23%)
2. Yankees (21%)
3. Blue Jays (13%)
The only reliever on this list, Scott put up a dominant 1.75 ERA over 72 appearances between the Marlins and Padres last season.
The 30-year-old lefty got off to a ridiculous start, posting a 1.18 ERA in 44 outings with the Marlins before being sent to the Padres at the Trade Deadline. And while he regressed a bit down the stretch (2.73 ERA in 28 regular-season appearances with San Diego), Scott struck out seven in 4 1/3 scoreless innings across five postseason appearances.
Scott figures to be one of the most highly pursued relievers on the market, so expect any and all contenders to express some interest.
Other teams receiving votes: Padres, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, Rangers
Christian Walker, 1B
1. Yankees (29%)
2. Astros (15%)
3. Mets (13%)
Could Walker be the Yankees' new first baseman? While quite a few teams earned multiple votes in this one, Walker was linked most often to the Yanks.
Walker has established himself as one of the best all-around first basemen in the Majors over the past few seasons. Along with winning three consecutive Gold Glove Awards, Walker has averaged 32 homers and 94 RBIs while posting a 123 OPS+ over the past three seasons.
Walker will turn 34 years old the day after Opening Day.
Other teams receiving votes: Red Sox, D-backs, Giants, Mariners, Tigers, Angels, Cardinals, Twins
Teoscar Hern¨˘ndez, OF
1. Dodgers (81%)
2. Red Sox (10%)
3. Braves/Padres (4% each)
Hern¨˘ndez has made it very clear he would love to stay in L.A. with the Dodgers -- and our voters strongly believe that will happen.
Hern¨˘ndez passed up some multiyear offers to sign a one-year, $23.5 million deal with the Dodgers last offseason -- but it certainly paid off. The 32-year-old outfielder hit a career-high 33 home runs while also winning the Home Run Derby, earning his second career All-Star nod and helping the Dodgers win the World Series.
But that's really nothing new for Hern¨˘ndez. He's one of just nine players to hit at least 25 homers in each of the five full seasons since 2019. The others are: Soto, Judge, Alonso, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado, Rafael Devers and Matt Olson.
Other teams receiving votes: Blue Jays, Phillies
Gleyber Torres, INF
1. Mariners (29%)
2. Tigers (15%)
3. Yankees (13%)
Torres has had his ups and downs over the past seven seasons with the Yankees, but it could be time for a change of scenery.
The once highly touted prospect burst onto the scene in 2018, hitting 24 home runs in 123 games while earning an All-Star nod and finishing third in AL Rookie of the Year voting. He took a step forward in '19, hitting .278 with 38 home runs, 90 RBIs and a career-best .871 OPS.
However, a 2020 move to shortstop, his natural position, coincided with a dip in production -- and put a spotlight on some of the concerns surrounding his defense. Torres' defensive struggles were again at the forefront in 2024, when those -- paired with offensive and baserunning woes -- led to him being benched twice by the eventual AL champion Yankees.
Torres turned things around after the second benching, finishing strong down the stretch and putting together a solid postseason -- but our voters still expect him to get a fresh start elsewhere.
Other teams receiving votes: Rockies, Marlins, Royals, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Brewers, Red Sox, Twins