7 hopeful predictions as we get set for Spring Training
Will Leitch
@williamfleitchThe final week before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training has been filled with all sorts of math. There are PECOTA projections and FanGraphs playoff odds -- whatever your favorite flavor of projection system, they¡¯re all there for you, and they¡¯re all extremely helpful.
There¡¯s so much to learn from each of these projections, and I¡¯m smarter having read all of them. I¡¯m sure you are, too.
But ¡ but ¡ well, I can¡¯t help but wonder if digging in too deeply into projections the week before pitchers and catchers report is to somewhat miss the point of Spring Training. After all, Spring Training isn¡¯t about cold hard facts and calculations. It¡¯s about hope! It¡¯s about all your players coming into camp in the best shape of their lives, it¡¯s about every team being tied for first place, it¡¯s about the season being fresh and new and full of infinite possibilities. It is, more than anything else, about optimism.
So, as we head into pitchers and catchers week -- the Cubs will become the first team to open camp on Sunday -- let¡¯s lean into some optimism. Here are some best-case scenarios that we want to see happen, people and teams taking their best steps forward. Here¡¯s to hope!
Mike Trout stays healthy all year
Is there anything that the baseball world would love to see more? Trout has played more than 82 games only once since 2019 -- the year he won his third and most recent MVP Award -- losing time to the pandemic-shortened season and a wave of injuries. Last year was particularly dispiriting, with Trout seeing the field only 29 times and not playing a single game after April 29. It should be pointed out that he was excellent for those 29 games, putting up a 140 OPS+ and hitting 10 homers. But it has been a long, long time since we saw Mike Trout be Mike Trout for anything remotely resembling a full season.
The Angels are doing what they can to put a better team around him and keep him healthy. For one thing, you can expect him to play a lot less center field this year, a move that¡¯s probably long overdue. And while the ultimately goal is to finally get him that first postseason victory, for now, we¡¯ll settle for just 125 games played or so. That isn¡¯t too much to ask ¡ is it?
Justin Verlander wins enough games to put 300 in sight
Verlander has won Rookie of the Year, an MVP Award, three Cy Young Awards and two World Series rings, and therefore would seem not to have much left to accomplish. But one of his stated reasons for continuing to pitch, even though he¡¯ll be 42 when the season starts, is that he wants to win 300 games. It¡¯s an historic milestone and one that is difficult to imagine being reached again, considering how baseball is played now. It¡¯s possible no other pitcher will approach it for a long, long time, if ever.
So you can see why Verlander would want to take aim at it. He¡¯s currently at 262 wins, which is still, all told, pretty far away. But if he has an outstanding year with the Giants and gets, say, a third of the way there, or even a little more, it will be mean that Verlander still has a chance ¡ and, just as exciting, that vintage Verlander has returned. Verlander won a Cy Young, and 18 games, as recently as 2022. It¡¯d be fantastic to see that again.
Jackson Holliday and Jordan Walker make good on their potential
Heading into last season, it sure looked like these two were future stars in the making. Walker, after a slow start in 2023, finished that season strong and had a lineup spot waiting for him in St. Louis. Holliday was the No. 1 prospect in baseball and, when he was called up by the Orioles on April 10, looked primed and ready to become the best hitter in a lineup stacked with them.
But both hitters ended up disappointing. Walker only hit .201 with five homers and spent most of the year at Triple-A; Holliday was even worse at .189 and was in Norfolk more than he was in Baltimore as well. These guys are both still so young, though: Walker is 22, and Holliday¡¯s 21. You can still see them becoming the stars we all thought they would be. But you¡¯d like to see it soon. There is nothing like a superstar discovering himself. Here¡¯s hoping these two do just that this year.
Elly De La Cruz and Julio Rodríguez take steps forward
De La Cruz showed off all the physical gifts in the world during his rookie season but did struggle to handle the strike zone. That improved in 2024, though, and he sure seems primed to take an even bigger leap forward in 2025. Is an MVP season possible? It¡¯s not that big of a leap; he did finish eighth just last year.
As for Rodr¨ªguez, we¡¯ve all seen what happens when he goes on one of his streaks ¡ª he looks like the best player in baseball. But it should be noted that his numbers have actually gone down since his AL Rookie of the Year-winning season in 2022. Rodr¨ªguez is an electrifying five-tool player who is impossible not to watch. But what we¡¯d love to see next ¡ª from both of these guys, really ¡ª is to reach the level we saw from Bobby Witt Jr. a year ago. We¡¯d love to see them take that abundant talent and put it all together.
The Mariners win their first AL West title since 2001
And if that happens with Julio, it sure feels like this will happen next, no? The Mariners did finally break through and end their two-decades-long playoff drought in 2022, but they didn¡¯t win the AL West that year and haven¡¯t made the playoffs since. It¡¯s probably time.
There aren¡¯t many fanbases that get behind their team so whole-heartedly and passionately as Mariners fans do, and it has been a bummer to see their frustration these last two years, watching a team that many thought was about to turn a corner and dominate this division end up sputtering and spinning its wheels. They have the pitching, and they¡¯re trying to get the offense some help, despite the difficulty of hitting at T-Mobile Park. The AL West looks less daunting than it has in the past. This could be the year. It better be.
The Blue Jays finally have THAT season
This was supposed to be the golden era for the Jays, with all those young players (all those young players who were the sons of ¡¯90s stars, no less!) maturing together and, at last, ascending to the top of what has traditionally been the best division in baseball. But it hasn¡¯t worked out that way. Toronto has made the playoffs three times since 2020, but each was as a Wild Card. Plus, the club hasn¡¯t so much as won a single postseason game, let alone a series, during that stretch.
Then, it bottomed out with a last-place finish in 2024. The Jays stayed the course, though, adding players and not trading away Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette as they enter the final year of their contracts. That¡¯s a big bet, and one they desperately need to pay off before both those players hit free agency. It¡¯s enough of a risk to make your forehead sweat. But the result could be what Blue Jays fans were promised, and so obviously deserve.
We get the fully unleashed Paul Skenes
Last year, we knew there was only so much of Skenes we were going to see. He was a rookie with very few Minor League innings under his belt, who had just been in the College World Series. He was a rookie with a long career ahead of him, and the Pirates were looking to the future. It made sense.
But in 2025, it sure would be exciting for baseball to get The Full Skenes. And why not? The Pirates should be competitive in the winnable NL Central, Skenes should be able to build on the 133 MLB innings he threw last year (plus 27 1/3 at Triple-A), and the rest of the league shouldn¡¯t be any more capable of dealing with him on the mound than it was in 2024. Skenes just finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting despite the relatively light workload. Give him 180 or 200 ¡ could he win the MVP?