How 10 teams can defy their playoff odds in '25

Every baseball season, the road to October is filled with surprises.

In 2024, six teams that entered the season with playoff odds below 41% (per FanGraphs) went on to reach the postseason: the Padres, Brewers, Guardians, Tigers, Mets and Royals. The year before, both World Series participants, the Rangers and D-backs, had playoff odds below 38% on Opening Day.

So while the odds may be against the 10 clubs below making the playoffs in 2025, that doesn¡¯t mean they have no chance to get there. Here¡¯s what needs to happen for these teams to defy the odds, which range from 38.3% to 13.4% (as of Friday).

Blue Jays: 38.3%

Why the odds are against them: Although the Blue Jays have the potential to bounce back after winning just 74 games last season, they¡¯re facing a tough road in the American League East -- the only division in which all five teams are projected to finish .500 or better, per FanGraphs. Toronto¡¯s aging rotation is perceived as a particularly notable weak spot, with FanGraphs ranking the team¡¯s starting staff 21st in projected WAR (11.3).

How they can defy the odds: While new additions Anthony Santander, Andrés Giménez, Jeff Hoffman and Max Scherzer should help the Blue Jays field a more competitive team in 2025, Toronto¡¯s postseason hopes may ultimately hinge on whether or not shortstop Bo Bichette and starter Kevin Gausman can return to form. If the Blue Jays get the peak versions of Bichette and Gausman, they could challenge for a postseason spot. But if those two aren¡¯t able to rebound from disappointing 2024 campaigns, Toronto might find itself as a Trade Deadline seller once again -- with no choice but to put pending free agent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the block.

Padres: 36.1%

Why the odds are against them: With Jurickson Profar, Tanner Scott, Ha-Seong Kim and Kyle Higashioka all gone, the Friars¡¯ losses far outweighed their gains during the offseason, weakening a club that won 93 games in 2024 and pushed the eventual World Series champion Dodgers to the limit in the National League Division Series. FanGraphs projects the Padres to be the third-best team in the NL West behind the Dodgers and D-backs, both of whom are given a strong chance to make the playoffs at 97.3% and 59.9%, respectively.

How they can defy the odds: Despite their losses, the Padres still have enough star power to stay competitive. Getting healthier/more productive seasons out of high-priced stars such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Yu Darvish would certainly help matters. Jackson Merrill could provide an additional boost, too, if he can take a step forward after his tremendous rookie season in 2024.

Brewers: 34.4%

Why the odds are against them: This is not much different than last year, when FanGraphs gave the Brewers a 30.6% chance of reaching the playoffs after Milwaukee traded away ace Corbin Burnes in February. Although the Brewers ended up winning the NL Central by the largest margin (10 games) of any division champion in 2024, their roster has been further diminished with the offseason departures of shortstop Willy Adames and closer Devin Williams. Meanwhile, the Cubs -- FanGraphs¡¯ projected NL Central favorite -- have made a number of marquee additions.

How they can defy the odds: After leaning on their strong pitching, defense and baserunning to make the playoffs in 2024, the Brewers¡¯ formula for contending could be similar this season. Of course, scoring runs could be more difficult without Adames, but Milwaukee¡¯s lineup could compensate for the loss if some of its key returning players step up.

The trio of Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell will be especially important. Entering his age-21 season, Chourio is a potential superstar in the making, having recorded a .305/.360/.527 slash with a 143 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR over his final 97 games as a rookie in 2024. Yelich and Mitchell, meanwhile, will both look to have healthier seasons after combining for just 539 plate appearances last year, over which they recorded a collective 141 wRC+.

Rays: 34.3%

Why the odds are against them: The Rays have traded away a surfeit of talent since the end of the 2023 season, including Tyler Glasnow, Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adam and Jeffrey Springs, putting their roster in a state of flux entering 2025. Tampa Bay is one of only six clubs that doesn¡¯t have a single player projected to reach the 4-WAR threshold this season. In fact, the Rays only have seven players projected to record at least 2 WAR, the fewest in the AL East. The Yankees lead the division with 10 such players, followed by the Orioles and Blue Jays with nine apiece and the Red Sox with eight.

How they can defy the odds: Although they are facing an uphill climb in the AL East, the Rays could contend for a playoff spot if a number of variables break in their favor. At the very least, signing Danny Jansen and Kim should raise Tampa Bay¡¯s offensive floor, given the team ranked among the bottom five in wRC+ at both catcher and shortstop in 2024.

Those two alone likely won't be enough to push the club's lineup into the AL¡¯s upper echelon, but the Rays could make that leap if Junior Caminero breaks out in his first full season and Yandy Díaz and Josh Lowe return to their 2023 level of production. D¨ªaz and Lowe combined for just 2.9 WAR last season after producing 8.5 WAR in 2023. The club¡¯s rotation could also exceed expectations if ace lefty Shane McClanahan makes a healthy return from Tommy John surgery, and Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot pitch to their full potential.

Giants: 26.5%

Why the odds are against them: The Giants were a fourth-place team in both 2023 and 2024, and that¡¯s exactly where they are projected to finish in the NL West this season. Although the club signed Adames to a seven-year, $182 million contract, its lineup has a distinct lack of elite bats, with no hitters projected to post a wRC+ higher than Matt Chapman¡¯s 115. San Francisco¡¯s rotation is also facing a lot of uncertainty behind ace Logan Webb.

How they can defy the odds: The addition of Adames should improve the Giants¡¯ offense after the club ranked 17th in MLB in runs scored last year. However, San Francisco¡¯s lineup may still struggle to compete with the NL¡¯s best unless it gets big years from some of its younger players, such as Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald. Similarly, the Giants¡¯ rotation is counting on 23-year-old lefty Kyle Harrison to make a leap in his third big league season. Former Cy Young Award winners Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander also provide upside for San Francisco¡¯s starting staff amid some significant question marks.

Cardinals: 23.1%

Why the odds are against them: Although the Cardinals went 83-79 last season, their expected record (76-86) was much worse thanks to a -47 run differential. St. Louis didn¡¯t make a single notable addition to its roster in the offseason, leaving the club with just seven players projected to reach the 2-WAR threshold in 2025. That includes third baseman Nolan Arenado (projected for 3.2 WAR), who remains with the Cardinals despite being shopped for months.

How they can defy the odds: The Cardinals¡¯ playoff hopes could depend on the performance of their younger players, including shortstop Masyn Winn, outfielder Jordan Walker, catcher Iván Herrera and infielder Nolan Gorman. Walker¡¯s development is especially important, not just for 2025 but for several seasons to come. The 22-year-old was MLB Pipeline¡¯s No. 3 overall prospect prior to the 2023 season and had a solid rookie year (116 wRC+), but he struggled in 2024, posting a 72 wRC+ over 178 plate appearances. If the Cards can get the most out of those four players, it¡¯s possible they¡¯ll be able to make some noise in a division that lacks an elite team.

Guardians: 20.3%

Why the odds are against them: Although the Guardians won the AL Central with a 92-69 record in 2024, their outlook for the upcoming season is far less rosy. While third baseman Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez, left fielder Steven Kwan and a stellar relief corps provide a solid foundation, there are a number of potential weaknesses that could sink Cleveland this year, with the club ranking 20th or worse in projected WAR at six different spots. That includes second base (T-29th), a result of Cleveland¡¯s decision to trade Gim¨¦nez to the Blue Jays in December. Perhaps the most concerning, though, is the Guardians¡¯ rotation, which ranks 27th in projected WAR. Tanner Bibee is the only pitcher on Cleveland¡¯s staff projected to record more than 1.6 WAR.

How they can defy the odds: Cleveland is likely never going to be an offensive juggernaut with this lineup, but if young hitters such as Kyle Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio, Bo Naylor and Juan Brito make strides, the club could score enough to compete in the AL Central, which isn¡¯t exactly an imposing division.

Of course, run prevention remains the most important factor for the Guardians, who allowed the third-fewest runs in MLB last season. However, it might be tough for Cleveland to replicate that success unless it gets more out of its rotation, which tied for the game¡¯s seventh-worst ERA (4.40) in 2024. The hope for the Guardians is that Shane Bieber can make it back strong from Tommy John surgery and that one or more of their homegrown starters -- Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie, who combined for a 5.28 ERA over 249 innings in 2024 -- bounces back.

Reds: 19.8%

Why the odds are against them: Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain could give the Reds one of the best middle-infield duos in baseball. The club also has a promising rotation led by Hunter Greene. But Cincinnati has potential weaknesses at almost every other spot on the diamond, ranking T-24th in projected WAR at first base, 29th at third base, 26th in left field, 26th in center field, 27th in right field, 24th at designated hitter and 27th in the bullpen.

How they can defy the odds: Looking at this roster through rose-colored glasses, it¡¯s not hard to envision a possible playoff team, despite what the projections say. For starters, FanGraphs¡¯ forecast might be selling the De La Cruz-McLain tandem short. The dynamic De La Cruz seemingly has room to grow after a 6.4-WAR season in 2024. McLain had 3.1 WAR over just 89 games as a rookie in 2023 before missing all of last season with a left shoulder injury. They¡¯re projected for a combined 8.3 WAR in 2025, but their ceiling could be much higher.

The Reds could also get improved production from some of their supporting hitters, including Jeimer Candelario, TJ Friedl, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The quartet combined for a 74 wRC+ and -2.4 WAR in 2024 but had a collective 116 wRC+ and 8.4 WAR one year prior.

Pirates: 17.5%

Why the odds are against them: After winning 76 games in 2024, the Pirates made only modest upgrades to their roster during the offseason, adding Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier, Spencer Horwitz, Andrew Heaney, Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza, and re-signing franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. Only one of those seven players is projected to produce more than 1.1 WAR in 2025 (Horwitz with 1.8).

How they can defy the odds: If the Pirates are going to end their nine-season playoff drought, it¡¯s likely going to come on the back of their rotation. It starts with reigning NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes, who is a leading Cy Young candidate going into his second season. Fellow second-year starter Jared Jones also flashed elite potential as a rookie, and veteran Mitch Keller has settled in as a solid mid-rotation arm. Heaney and Bailey Falter are set to round out Pittsburgh¡¯s starting staff, though we could see MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospects Bubba Chandler (No. 15 overall) and Thomas Harrington (No. 80) at some point in 2025, giving Pittsburgh's rotation even more upside.

At the same time, the Pirates are going to need to find a way to generate more offense than they did in 2024, when they scored the seventh-fewest runs in MLB. To accomplish that goal, Pittsburgh will be counting on a handful of former highly touted prospects -- such as Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Joey Bart, Nick Gonzales, Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis -- to make headway in 2025.

Athletics: 13.4%

Why the odds are against them: The Athletics made progress in 2024 but still lost 93 games, marking their third straight losing season. The A¡¯s focused on improving their starting staff in the offseason, signing Luis Severino in free agency and trading for Springs, but FanGraphs¡¯ projections for the team¡¯s rotation are pessimistic. The A¡¯s rotation ranks 30th in projected WAR, and neither Severino (1.5 WAR) nor Springs (1.7 WAR) is projected to reach the 2-WAR threshold.

How they can defy the odds: With the Astros weakened by the departures of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman and the Mariners doing little to address their lackluster offense during the offseason, the door is open for the A¡¯s to surprise in the AL West. Although they scored the fifth-fewest runs in the Majors last season, that number belies their offensive talent. Brent Rooker was one of baseball's best hitters in 2024, ranking seventh among qualifiers with a 164 wRC+. Meanwhile, Lawrence Butler (130 wRC+), JJ Bleday (120 wRC+) and Shea Langeliers (109 wRC+) all made notable strides at the plate.

Shortstop Jacob Wilson, MLB Pipeline¡¯s No. 31 overall prospect, and 23-year-old first baseman Tyler Soderstrom, who had a superb 14.6% barrel rate over 213 plate appearances last season, could be the next A¡¯s hitters to blossom. And don¡¯t forget about Zack Gelof. The second baseman experienced a sophomore slump last year (82 wRC+) but excelled as a rookie in 2023 (132 wRC+). If everything clicks on offense and Severino and Springs exceed expectations on the mound, this club could vault into contention.