NEW YORK -- In terms of total dollars, the $500 million agreement between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays this week registered more than nine times higher than the $54 million pact between Pete Alonso and the Mets.
Consider this a funky case of baseball economics. Yes, Guerrero may be a better overall player than Alonso, but he¡¯s not nine times better. He may be younger, but he¡¯s not nine years younger.
Why Guerrero received so much more money is a function of the marketplaces in which each player has operated.
In Alonso¡¯s case, he entered free agency coming off a down year, at a time when significantly cheaper alternatives such as Christian Walker, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell and Josh Naylor all switched teams. In addition, Alonso¡¯s status as a beloved homegrown star had been fraying due to his decreasing production levels, while Mets ownership had purchased plenty of capital with the fan base by signing Juan Soto to the richest contract in baseball history.
For all those reasons, Alonso faced a market featuring decent supply and little demand. The result was a $54 million pact.
Compare that to Guerrero¡¯s situation with the Blue Jays, who spent the past two offseasons whiffing on potential acquisitions of Shohei Ohtani, Soto and others. Guerrero represented their best and possibly final opportunity at a public-relations win, as a Canadian-born superstar who signed with the Jays at age 16 and has been with them ever since, making four All-Star teams and winning a home run title along the way.
Put simply, the Blue Jays needed Guerrero more than the Mets needed Alonso. That, combined with the fact that Guerrero is four years younger and a more accomplished player, resulted in the salary disparity.
Even so, these things do not happen in a vacuum. Before Guerrero signed, the most appropriate recent contract comps for a star first baseman were Matt Olson¡¯s eight-year, $168 million agreement with the Braves and Freddie Freeman¡¯s six-year, $162 million pact with the Dodgers. Suddenly, Alonso can point to a new deal nearly triple the size of those old ones.
It¡¯s no surprise, then, that Alonso was cheering on Guerrero throughout this process. The Mets first baseman can become a free agent again in November if he opts out of the final $24 million owed to him, as he¡¯s widely expected to.
¡°That¡¯s awesome,¡± Alonso said of Guerrero¡¯s contract. ¡°He¡¯s a great fit for that organization. He¡¯s a great player. And obviously, deservedly so.¡±
Asked how it might affect his own situation, Alonso responded: ¡°Honestly, the only thing I think is to have a good year. That¡¯s really it. It¡¯s really that simple -- just have a good year and see what happens.¡±
To that end, Alonso is off to a sensational start, hitting three home runs over his first seven games and producing a 1.066 OPS over his first nine. Notably, Alonso has been adept at powering balls to the opposite field, as he did in hitting the Wild Card Series home run that began to change his trajectory last October. He entered Monday¡¯s play leading the Mets in almost every major statistical category.
¡°We¡¯ve seen over the years here that when Pete gets going, he can carry a team,¡± president of baseball operations David Stearns said. ¡°It¡¯s been fun to see him with some enormous home runs. I think he¡¯s enjoyed it. Hopefully, it¡¯s allowed him to take a little bit of a deep breath. And he¡¯s earned it. He loves playing here. Our fans love watching him, and he¡¯s been a huge part of our wins so far this season.¡±
How this all might affect Alonso if (or when) he opts out, Stearns wouldn¡¯t say. At a routine media briefing Monday, the president of baseball operations declined to acknowledge Guerrero¡¯s deal because it¡¯s not yet official. When pressed about the first-base market in general, Stearns replied: ¡°I will comment on that when we get to the offseason.¡±
While the chance of a midseason extension always exists, Alonso¡¯s strongest play would be exactly what he stated: to focus on nothing beyond having an excellent summer. Only by doing so can he make himself as indispensable as Guerrero was to the Blue Jays, improving his stock to such an extent that the Mets will have little choice but to give him the bag this time around.