Could Chourio be poised for a 30-30 season?
This story was excerpted from Adam McCalvy's Brewers Beat newsletter, which was written by David Adler for this edition. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
The 20-20 club is cool. The 30-30 club is cooler. Is Jackson Chourio about to join it?
It was awesome to see Chourio go 20-20 as a 20-year-old rookie last season. And if we're lucky, we might even get to see him break through the next big power/speed milestone in 2025.
Just look at his projections for this season. Chourio's generating some pretty interesting ones.
The Steamer projections for Chourio over at FanGraphs -- one of the biggest baseball projection systems out there -- have him at 28 home runs and 27 stolen bases this season.
That's pretty noteworthy. First of all, that makes Chourio one of just 10 Major League ballplayers projected for at least a 25-25 season. Which puts him in the same group as baseball's top power/speed stars.
Players projected for 25+ HR and 25+ SB in 2025
According to Steamer
- Shohei Ohtani -- 43 HR / 34 SB
- Bobby Witt Jr. -- 31 HR / 36 SB
- Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez -- 30 HR / 31 SB
- Julio Rodr¨ªguez -- 30 HR / 28 SB
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. -- 29 HR / 35 SB
- Luis Robert Jr. -- 29 HR / 27 SB
- Jackson Chourio -- 28 HR / 27 SB
- Ronald Acu?a Jr. -- 27 HR / 44 SB
- Elly De La Cruz -- 26 HR / 54 SB
- Corbin Carroll -- 26 HR / 41 SB
And second of all, it means that with just a little extra boost, we could be looking at a 30-30 season from a 21-year-old Chourio.
That 28-homer, 27-steal projection is only what a "normal" 2025 season for Chourio might look like. A lot of the time, projections end up being conservative. Players can easily blow past their projections if they make a leap in any given season.
Just look at Chourio. He's already done it.
As a top prospect heading into his rookie year last spring, Chourio was projected by Steamer for 16 home runs and 16 stolen bases. In reality, he hit 21 home runs and stole 22 bases and exceeded both halves of his power/speed projections.
So Chourio has as good a chance as anybody to do it again. He can go even higher in 2025. Because he's not a normal player. Normal players don't go 20-20 at 20 and then just start whacking more homers in the playoffs.
Say Chourio gets even better in Year 2 and does go 30-30. He'd be just the third player in MLB history with a 30-30 season at age 21 or younger. Acu?a in 2019 (41 homers, 37 steals) and Mike Trout in 2012 (30 homers, 49 steals) are the only players who have done it.
A-Rod and J-Rod came close, both doing it in their age-22 seasons. And Witt, Jose Canseco and Bobby Bonds did it at 23. So really, if Chourio can join the 30-30 club in the next few seasons, he's going to be part of an exclusive collection of young phenoms.
The fact that it's even in the realm of possibility is great for the Brewers. Now let's just sit back and watch Chourio play.