His heater averages 100 mph and he's a free agent reliever to watch
Brent Maguire
@bmags94As velocity continues to rise across baseball, it's increasingly harder for individual pitchers to stand out with a big fastball.
Some, however, have managed to put themselves in a class of their own. Last season, only two qualifying pitchers averaged 100-plus mph on fastballs: Minnesota's Jhoan Duran led the Majors with a 101.8 mph average heater, while Jordan Hicks wasn't far behind, at 100.3 mph.
Eye-popping velocity has always been the key calling card for Hicks, who debuted as a flamethrowing 21-year-old for the Cardinals in 2018. After undergoing Tommy John surgery and experimenting as a starter in '22, Hicks had his best year yet in '23, when the Cardinals sent him to the Blue Jays at the Trade Deadline in his final season before free agency.
But while Hicks might be best known for his high-octane fastball, it's hardly the only notable and extreme aspect of his profile. Hicks is an outlier in many ways, and that's a big reason why he presents such a fascinating free-agent case. Here is a closer look at how the 27-year-old stands out from the pack.
The unicorn fastball(s)
As mentioned before, Hicks had one of the top fastballs in the Majors last year. That's consistently been a part of his game.
In the pitch-tracking era (since 2008), there have been 1,740 pitchers who've thrown at least 500 fastballs (four-seamers and sinkers). Unsurprisingly, Hicks is near the top of that list, with an average 101.1 mph fastball that trails only Duran's 101.3 mph heater.
Hicks consistently brings it in triple digits and has thrown a handful of pitches that only Duran and Aroldis Chapman (also a current free agent) have approached. In that same time frame, Hicks and Chapman are the only two pitchers who have reached 105 mph on a single fastball. Only Chapman -- who owns the hardest fastball at 105.8 mph and the top seven fastballs in terms of velocity -- is in the same stratosphere as Hicks.
What makes Hicks a unicorn is the movement he gets on some of his fastballs. Hicks threw his four-seamer a career-high 10.7% of the time last season, but he still threw his sinker roughly two out of every three pitches (64.4%). Whereas guys like Duran and Chapman rely on high-velo four-seamers up in the zone, Hicks has a bowling-ball sinker that moves at speeds few can match.
Hicks consistently generates above-average vertical and horizontal movement on his sinker, which has averaged 101.1 mph over his career. That combination of elite velocity and movement leads to fastballs that appear to defy the laws of physics, creating optical illusions for mystified batters.
There are, however, downsides to this sinker's characteristics and how often Hicks throws the pitch. Whereas four-seamers will produce more whiffs, sinkers are designed to keep the ball on the ground, something Hicks certainly has excelled at, with a career 61.0% ground-ball rate and a 0.3-degree average launch angle. That's led to poor quality of contact for opponents, in the form of a 3.9% barrel rate (optimal batted balls with ideal exit velocity and launch angle) and a 26.9% sweet-spot rate (batted ball with launch angle between eight and 32 degrees).
While Hicks has done well in terms of producing weak contact with heavy sinker usage, it also means he owns a career 24.5% strikeout rate that's just a tick above the league-average mark. The combination of big velocity and movement has also led to command issues, as Hicks' walk rate has never dipped below 10% in a season. (His 11.2% walk rate last year ranked in the 15th percentile among MLB pitchers.) Attempting to corral a fastball with that much stuff has been an issue for Hicks' entire career.
There's cause for hope, though, based on a new pitch Hicks introduced in 2023 that could do wonders for his future success.
Joining the sweeper movement
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Hicks was one of many pitchers who bought into the craze surrounding the sweeper -- a slider variant that has more horizontal movement than a traditional slider.
Hicks wasn't exactly in need of a new wipeout secondary pitch -- his slider has produced an elite 52.0% whiff rate and a .455 OPS allowed in his career. Hicks made the swap anyway in 2023, opting for a breaking ball with more side-to-side break. It was the right move, as Hicks had one of the whiffiest pitches in the Majors last season.
Top whiff rate on individual pitch, 2023
Minimum 50 swings
1. Félix Bautista, splitter: 60.2%
2. Robert Stephenson, cutter: 59.9%
3-T. Kodai Senga, forkball: 59.5%
3-T. Jordan Hicks, sweeper: 59.5%
5. Abner Uribe, slider: 58.1%
Hicks' sweeper is legitimately nasty and one of the best new breaking balls in the sport. At 86.8 mph, it was the fastest sweeper in the Majors last year. Similar to his sinker's combo of velocity and movement, Hicks' sweeper also featured above-average movement, with 12.4 inches of side-to-side break. His previously dominant slider -- which Hicks sparingly used in 2023 (3.5%) -- had nearly eight fewer inches of break.
With a new elite pitch in the fold -- and a greater emphasis on using his four-seamer -- Hicks produced the best strikeout rate of his career, at 28.4%.
Why there could be another level for Hicks
There's certainly still risk in Hicks' profile even after a breakout 2023 season. After all, Hicks still walked hitters 11.2% of the time last season, and he has a history of injuries and lower strikeout rates.
It's also possible that Hicks has unlocked a new level and could reach even greater heights in 2024. While his bowling-ball sinker, which averages 100 mph, is the most visually pleasing pitch, it's also arguably the least effective of his three main offerings.
Part of Hicks' breakout centered around his new sweeper and throwing his four-seamer more often. Even with those changes, those two pitches still only accounted for 30.5% of his total last season. What might happen if the usage on those pitches moves closer to 50%?
Given that the sweeper and four-seamer combined for a 47.4% whiff rate and a 5.7% walk rate that was much better than his sinker (17.4% whiff rate and 12.4% walk rate), there's ample reason to believe that Hicks would benefit with further reliance on those pitches.
If Hicks leans into that approach and still utilizes his signature sinker for generating weak contact when needed, there's the potential for the flamethrowing right-hander to become an even more dominant relief ace for his next team.