Breaking down Naylor's leaps at the dish

April 24th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Mandy Bell¡¯s Guardians Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CLEVELAND -- There¡¯s a reason was the choice for the Bob Feller Man of the Year by the Cleveland chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America at the end of last season.

We¡¯ve all become so accustomed to Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez stealing the offensive spotlight. Although Ram¨ªrez was as advertised yet again in 2023, it was Naylor¡¯s surprising surge that caught everyone¡¯s attention. He hit .308 with an .843 OPS, 17 homers and 97 RBIs in 121 games. He was as reliable as anyone in Cleveland¡¯s lineup last year and the team needs him to repeat it in ¡¯24 to improve on its disappointing '23 season.

Somehow, despite how high of a bar he set for himself, Naylor is showing he might be even better this year.

Naylor has now reached base safely in 15 consecutive games, hitting .346 with a 1.092 OPS, five homers and 15 RBIs in that span. We¡¯re hardly even an eighth of the way through the season, so there¡¯s no way to predict if this level of production will be sustainable, but three metrics provide optimism that it could be.

Let¡¯s take a look.

1. No trouble against the lefties
Just two years ago, the conversation surrounding Naylor was whether he¡¯d be able to one day prove he could be more than a platoon guy at first base. Since then, his numbers against left-handed pitching have only gotten better:

2022: 110 at-bats, .173 average, .512 OPS, four doubles, one homer, 11 RBIs
2023: 137 at-bats, .299 average, .821 OPS, nine doubles, five homers, 22 RBIs
2024: 21 at-bats, .381 average, 1.245 OPS, three doubles, two homers, seven RBIs

¡°I think you just have to credit, he put in a ton of work this winter hitting lefty spin, hitting lefty angle and he continues to do that,¡± Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. ¡°I think he takes pride in playing every day, versus left, versus right. And this guy can just hit -- flat out hit. So it's a credit to him and the work he's put in, but also just his tenacity and focus. And man, he loves a big moment and he comes through for us. It's awesome.¡±

It seems safe to say at this point: Naylor isn¡¯t a platoon guy.

2. Better contact
Again, it¡¯s early, but Naylor has been barreling balls up more frequently than we¡¯ve seen him in the past. Entering tonight¡¯s game against the Red Sox, he owns a 12.5% barrel percentage (which ranks in the 83rd percentile). With barrels come higher exit velocities; therefore, a better probability of winding up with a hit.

Naylor's quality of contact is showing in his results. While his ground-ball percentage has been similar (right around 43%), Naylor has turned many of his fly balls from last year into line drives. In 2023, 25.6% of his batted balls were fly balls. This year, that¡¯s dropped to 18.1%. Meanwhile, his line-drive rate has jumped from 23.8% last year to 30.6%.

3. The chase is down
Naylor¡¯s chase rate was his kryptonite last season. He ranked in the fourth percentile in chase percentage (39.5%). But through the first 22 games, he lowered that to 27.9%, which ranks in the 43rd percentile.

The slightest of improvements when it comes to patience at the plate can make a tremendous difference for a hitter, and we¡¯re seeing Naylor reap the benefits so far. Entering Wednesday, he has swung at 84% of pitches in the strike zone. In 2023, that number was 76.3%. When he¡¯s swinging at good pitches, he¡¯s doing damage. But when Naylor is able to lay off the junk, he¡¯s getting on base more frequently by drawing more walks (as much as it pains him to not get a chance to hit his way on base). Last year, his walk rate was in the 28th percentile at 6.7%. This year, it's in the 48th percentile at 8.6%.

There¡¯s no way to know if this is sustainable. There¡¯s no crystal ball to tell us if Naylor is going to continue to get better. But the foundation is there and he¡¯s proving it¡¯s possible.

¡°You can¡¯t say enough about the quality of at-bat that Nayls puts together,¡± Vogt said. ¡°That¡¯s why I said he¡¯s not a power hitter, he¡¯s a hitter with power. I think he doesn¡¯t punch out at an enormous rate. He¡¯ll take his walks. He takes what the pitchers give him. He hits to the situation with the threat of if you make a mistake, you¡¯re not getting the ball back. Those are the most dangerous hitters you can have.¡±

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