The moment Vladimir Guerrero Jr.¡¯s extension with the Blue Jays became official, the clock began to tick on Kyle Tucker¡¯s countdown to free agency, where he will be the undisputed gem of this year¡¯s class.
That title likely would have belonged to Guerrero had he not signed a 14-year, $500 million deal to play out the rest of his career in Toronto, the only Major League city he has called home throughout his career.
Is it possible Tucker will sign an extension of his own with the Cubs, taking him off the open market before he ever gets there?
Most execs polled seemed to believe it¡¯s highly unlikely he signs during the season.
¡°He¡¯s likely to be the best player on the market by a decent margin; I can¡¯t imagine him giving up the opportunity for a bidding war to potentially take place for his services,¡± one National League executive said.
An American League executive, expressing doubts about an in-season extension, cited Guerrero¡¯s contract as the floor for a deal coming together prior to free agency despite the fact that Tucker -- who turned 28 in January -- is two years older than Guerrero, who turned 26 in March.
¡°We are talking about a left-handed hitter who produces similar WAR and more consistent offensive value,¡± the AL exec said.
Tucker averaged 30 home runs, 104 RBIs, 23 stolen bases, an .870 OPS, 5.4 bWAR and 149 games player per season from 2021-23. Last year, the right fielder missed three months with a right shin fracture after fouling a ball off his leg, but he hit 23 home runs with 49 RBIs, 11 steals, a .993 OPS and 4.7 bWAR in only 78 games.
Guerrero averaged 34 home runs, 101 RBIs, an .887 OPS and 4.6 bWAR between 2021-24, playing an average of 159 games per season.
Tucker was traded from the Astros to the Cubs in December, with Chicago sending Cam Smith (MLB¡¯s No. 55 overall prospect), Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski to Houston for one guaranteed year of Tucker¡¯s services.
¡°If the Cubs don¡¯t extend him, that may go down as an all-time terrible trade,¡± an NL executive said.
It would make sense for the Cubs to try extending Tucker before he can negotiate with any other teams, but given how close he is to free agency and the fact that he¡¯s been a member of the team for less than five months, it could be tricky for Chicago to get a deal done before the offseason.
¡°If he wants to stay in Chicago, he can always sign there in the winter,¡± an NL exec said. ¡°Prior to that, I imagine it would take a massive overpay to get him to forgo an opportunity on the open market. Since he¡¯s a couple years older than Vlad and doesn¡¯t have the same tie-in with the Cubs that Vlad has with the Jays -- or with the country, for that matter -- I would be surprised if they would be willing to go far enough during the season to make him bite early.¡±
While some reports have indicated that Tucker and the Cubs have engaged in some talks during the season, the majority of executives around the league believe he¡¯s ultimately headed for free agency. Two execs believe the Cubs can get something done if they're willing to pay him, though it¡¯s obviously going to take a massive contract to close the deal.
¡°If they¡¯re indeed talking, that at least shows some interest on both sides,¡± an NL executive said. ¡°The Cubs are a great place to play; I¡¯m sure they want to keep him, which was part of the value of trading for him. I don¡¯t see why it wouldn¡¯t be a possibility.¡±
¡°He¡¯s with a team who can do it, so I think he will,¡± an AL executive said, adding that Tucker could possibly exceed Guerrero¡¯s contract in terms of average annual value.
Another NL executive wouldn¡¯t predict whether Tucker will or won¡¯t sign an in-season extension, but whether the three-time All-Star makes it to free agency or not, one thing is certain:
¡°I think he was happy to see the Vladdy deal,¡± the exec said.