The breakout Yankee doing a spot-on Gerrit Cole impression
Thomas Harrigan
@HarriganMLBLuis Gil wasn't supposed to be here.
If everyone in the Yankees' rotation were healthy right now, he would likely be pitching for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. However, Gerrit Cole's right elbow injury in March changed everything for the 25-year-old Gil, who is back after missing nearly two full seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Gil was actually sent to Minor League camp on March 3, only to be brought back when Cole was shut down less than two weeks later. He went on to win a competition for the vacant spot in New York¡¯s rotation and hasn¡¯t looked back.
Two months in, Gil is not only thriving in place of Cole, he's doing a spot-on impression of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner.
Gerrit Cole through 10 starts in 2023:
- 62 2/3 IP
- 2.01 ERA
- 2.97 FIP
- 1.09 WHIP
- 68 strikeouts
Luis Gil through 10 starts in 2024:
- 55 1/3 IP
- 2.11 ERA
- 2.93 FIP
- 1.01 WHIP
- 70 strikeouts
Although the Azua, Dominican Republic, native debuted back in 2021, his rookie eligibility is still intact, making him one of the leading candidates to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, something no Yankees pitcher has done since Dave Righetti in 1981.
All stats below are through Monday.
Gil is set to make his 11th start of the season Wednesday against the Angels, finishing up what has been a sensational month of May. Over his first five starts this month, he went 5-0 with a 0.59 ERA, 35 strikeouts and only 12 hits allowed in 30 2/3 innings.
No pitcher (minimum 200 batters faced) has been tougher to hit this season than Gil, who has held batters to a miniscule .143 average.
Lowest BA allowed, 2024
Min. 200 batters faced
- Luis Gil: .143
- Ranger Su¨¢rez: .171
- Ronel Blanco: .174
- Tyler Glasnow: .181
- Dylan Cease and Zack Wheeler: .184
Gil also has reined in the walks in May, lowering his BB/9 rate to 2.93 after averaging 6.93 walks per nine innings in April. He's been especially stingy with the free passes over his past three outings, yielding only five walks while striking out 25 batters in 18 1/3 innings.
Much like Cole, Gil¡¯s arsenal is centered around his high-velocity, high-spin four-seam fastball, which he¡¯s throwing 55.5% of the time in 2024. Their heaters are eerily similar.
Cole's 4-seam fastball in 2023:
- 53% usage rate
- 96.7 mph average velocity
- 2,412 rpm average spin rate
- 12 inches of vertical movement (+1.6 inches of rise vs. avg.)
Gil's 4-seam fastball in 2024:
- 55.5% usage rate
- 96.5 mph average velocity
- 2,475 rpm average spin rate
- 11.9 inches of vertical movement (+1.5 inches of rise vs. avg.)
Gil's four-seam fastball is generating elite swing-and-miss numbers -- his 30.5% whiff rate ranks third among starters (minimum 100 swings on four-seamers) -- and has held batters to a .151 batting average this season. He has collected 41 K's on four-seamers, making it one of the top strikeout pitches in the Majors.
Most strikeouts recorded on individual pitch type, 2024
- Hunter Greene¡¯s 4-seam fastball: 52 K¡¯s
- Dylan Cease¡¯s slider: 51 K¡¯s
- Chris Sale¡¯s slider: 46 K¡¯s
- Fernando Cruz¡¯s splitter: 42 K¡¯s
- Luis Gil¡¯s 4-seam fastball: 41 K¡¯s
Last season, Cole¡¯s four-seamer also racked up the fifth-most K¡¯s of any pitch type, and the second-most K¡¯s among four-seamers.
Gil¡¯s four-seamer has been a big reason why he has absolutely owned the heart of the plate, defined as the area more than one baseball¡¯s width inside the strike zone borders.
He's been the most effective hurler in MLB on pitches in the heart of the zone this season, as evidenced by the run value leaderboard, which takes the result of every pitch thrown and measures its impact on run scoring.
Highest run value on pitches in the heart of the zone, 2024
- 16: Luis Gil (12 on 4-seamers)
- 13: Garrett Crochet
- 13: Shota Imanaga
- 12: Corbin Burnes
- 12: Ranger Su¨¢rez
The MLB leader in run value on pitches in the heart of the zone last season? You guessed it -- Cole.
It¡¯s the area where hitters typically do the most damage. They¡¯ve slugged .521 on pitches in the heart of the zone this season, compared to .320 on pitches around the edges, .145 on pitches in the chase zone and .012 on pitches in the waste zone.
In contrast, hitters have posted just a .238 slugging percentage against Gil on pitches in the heart of the plate in 2024. That includes a .236 SLG on four-seamers in the heart of the plate, another indication of how overpowering his fastball has been.
Of course, Gil¡¯s four-seamer isn¡¯t the only one of his pitches that has dominated opponents in 2024. He also throws a changeup -- one of the hardest in the Majors, on average, at 91.1 mph -- and a slider, and they¡¯ve both been virtually untouchable as well.
Gil has held opponents to a collective .134 average with his two secondary offerings, MLB's fifth-lowest mark allowed on non-fastballs (minimum 75 PAs ending on those pitches).
Lowest BA allowed on breaking and offspeed pitches, 2024
Min. 75 PAs ending on those pitches
- 1. Jordan Hicks: .105
- 2. Ranger Su¨¢rez: .128
- 3-T. Bailey Ober: .132
- 3-T. Spencer Turnbull: .132
- 5. Luis Gil: .134
Hitters are batting .130 against Gil's changeup and .139 against his slider, with a combined 29 K's on those two pitches. His repertoire is unique across the Majors. Gil has allowed a batting average of .151 or lower on three different pitch types this season, something no one else can say (minimum 40 PAs ending on each pitch type). Only two others -- the Cardinals' Sonny Gray and the Tigers' Reese Olson -- even have two such pitch types.
If Gil can keep it up, the Yankees will have a difficult decision to make when Cole eventually returns.
Despite the ace's absence, the Bronx Bombers have one of the best rotations in MLB, ranking first in ERA (2.72), second in K¡¯s (314) and fourth in innings (310 2/3).
Free-agent acquisition Marcus Stroman has been a tremendous addition, Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have rebounded from injury-plagued 2023 seasons and Clarke Schmidt has taken a step forward in his second year as a full-time starter.
None, though, has been as impressive as the man currently filling Cole's rotation spot.