Breaking down the state of the Mets' starting rotation
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComoThis story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo's Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox. This is the first part of a five-part Around the Horn series detailing the Mets¡¯ roster heading into 2025. First up: Starting pitchers.
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- Doubtless, the news that both Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas will miss Opening Day due to injuries was difficult for the Mets to endure. But team officials don¡¯t consider it a killer. To the contrary, they expect to have Manaea back before the end of April and Montas later in the first half. In the grand scheme of a 162-game season, that¡¯s not so bad.
For those reasons, the Mets don¡¯t expect to pursue additional help from outside the organization -- at least not at this time. They¡¯re comfortable with a depth chart that may lack ceiling but features a slew of big league-tested arms.
Here¡¯s how things stand with the starting rotation two weeks into camp:
On the 40-man roster: Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill, Justin Hagenman
On the 60-day IL: Christian Scott
Notable departures: Luis Severino (A¡¯s), Jose Quintana (free agent)
Non-roster invitees: Sproat, Tidwell, Hamel, Brandon Waddell
The projected starters
Barring additional injuries, Senga, Holmes and Peterson have guaranteed jobs, but all three come with question marks attached to them. Senga, for example, made only one start last season due to right shoulder, triceps and left calf injuries. While he¡¯s been healthy and throwing in the mid-90s this spring, it will be difficult for the Mets to feel confident until they see him do it regularly -- and with control.
Holmes has likewise been sharp early in camp, but he¡¯s a longtime reliever set to start games for the first time since 2018. Even with a strong recent history of pitchers making that transition around the Majors, including Seth Lugo and Michael King, Holmes¡¯ success is not guaranteed.
Finally, Peterson consistently outperformed his metrics last season, most notably with a 2.90 ERA versus a 4.59 expected ERA. It will be interesting to see if the left-hander shows genuine improvement or regresses to the mean.
Any competition?
At the moment, Blackburn, Canning and Megill are competing for the final two jobs in a five-man Opening Day rotation. All of them feature checkered resumes.
Blackburn, whom the Mets acquired at last year¡¯s Trade Deadline, missed September and October due to a fluid leak in his spine. He¡¯s healthy now but hasn¡¯t pitched in eight months, and he owns a well below-average 83 ERA+ for his career. It¡¯s unclear how sharp he¡¯ll be.
As for Canning, Mets officials believe they can coax more success out of him than the Angels could. Canning doesn¡¯t feature eyepopping metrics, but he¡¯s been working on a two-seam fastball and a cutter this spring and may eventually feature a six-pitch mix.
Finally, Megill has long tempted the Mets with above-average ability, but control and command issues have always held him back. He sits behind Blackburn and Canning on the depth chart, simply because he has an accessible Minor League option. But if Megill puts together a strong camp, the Mets could consider carrying him in the rotation and bumping Blackburn or Canning to a swingman role.
Team officials did discuss a six-man rotation at the outset of spring, but injuries and other factors prompted them to revisit that plan -- at least for now.
What about the future?
At this time last year, the Mets hoped Scott, Hamel and Mike Vasil would fortify their rotation for the foreseeable future. Then, attrition hit. Scott underwent Tommy John surgery while the latter two struggled through poor seasons, with Vasil subsequently going to the Rays in the Rule 5 Draft.
The good news is that Mets officials are even more excited for their next wave of youngsters. In addition to Sproat, who¡¯s the No. 46 prospect in baseball, the Mets believe Tidwell, McLean and Tong can develop into useful rotation arms sooner rather than later. The Mets also selected Dohm and Santucci in the first three rounds of last year¡¯s Draft.
What¡¯s unclear is how the team might operate at this year¡¯s Trade Deadline, particularly if a frontline starter like Dylan Cease becomes available. By that point, the Mets could have enough prospect depth -- and enough need -- to swing a blockbuster.