SARASOTA, Fla. -- Rebuilds come in all shapes and sizes. Just ask Mike Elias, who has played an integral role in two of the most recent success stories on that front.
Elias was the Astros¡¯ scouting director and later assistant general manager during their rebuild, which saw the club go from 111 losses in 2013 to a World Series title in ¡®17 (and another in ¡®22). He was hired as the Orioles¡¯ general manager following the ¡®18 season, tearing down the roster while guiding a complete restructuring of the organization from top to bottom.
¡°When we started with 115 losses [in 2018] as one of the two smaller-market teams in the American League East, with a lowly rated farm system, no analytics department, no international scouting department, an ownership transition going on within the family -- there was so much,¡± Elias said. ¡°I didn't know if it was going to be possible to get back up into contention in the American League East -- and we did.¡±
That turnaround began in earnest in 2022, when the Orioles finished with an 83-79 record, overcoming a poor start to play .573 ball -- a 92-win pace -- over their final 103 games.
The jump in 2023 was even more startling, as the Orioles won 101 games to capture their first AL East title since 2014 and only their second since 1998. The eventual champion Rangers swept the O¡¯s in the AL Division Series, but considering Baltimore¡¯s inexperience, its season was considered a smashing success.
Last season, the Orioles won 91 games to reach the postseason for a second straight year, but just like 2023, they were swept in the playoffs, dropping both games to the Royals in the AL Wild Card Series.
Now, as the O¡¯s prepare to take aim at a third straight trip to October, does Elias believe the rebuild has gone according to plan?
¡°The regular seasons, the last two, really two-and-a-half to three years, have been amazing,¡± Elias said. ¡°Every bit of that has been fantastic. We've just had these two back-to-back crummy playoff experiences, and that¡¯s complicated my answer to that question.
¡°That part of it has been sour, but in terms of where the franchise is, where the team is, where the roster is, and the type of baseball we've been playing the last few years in the division that we're playing in, where we started from and the realities of market sizes in baseball, I think it's all gone tremendously well. We want another bite at the apple this year in the playoffs. We want to do a lot better than we've been doing.¡±
If the Orioles are playing deep into October, they¡¯ll be doing so despite the departure of ace Corbin Burnes, who signed a $210 million free-agent deal with the D-backs after finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young vote during his lone season in Baltimore.
Many expected the Orioles -- who are entering the second year under a new ownership group led by David Rubenstein -- to either figure out a way to keep Burnes or to replace him with another frontline starter. Free agents Max Fried, Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi signed elsewhere and potential trade target Garrett Crochet was dealt to the Red Sox, while Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo remained with their respective teams.
¡°It¡¯s definitely a thing when you have Corbin Burnes on your team and he's not on your team the next year,¡± Elias said. ¡°We were very active in free agency; there were some targets that we were very close on, that we had a good chance and didn't get the player, then there are others that we pulled in.¡±
Baltimore signed outfielder Tyler O¡¯Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal -- the first multi-year free-agent contract handed out since Elias arrived -- to replace free agent Anthony Santander.
Right-handers Charlie Morton ($15 million), Tomoyuki Sugano ($13 million), Andrew Kittredge ($10 million), catcher Gary S¨¢nchez ($8.5 million) and outfielder Ramon Laureano ($4 million) were all signed to one-year deals, pushing the payroll from roughly $100 million past the $150 million mark -- a 50 percent increase.
¡°We have to be really smart about where and how we invest,¡± Elias said. ¡°There's not a lot of margin for error in our division. I think it's going to look different every year with our free-agent approach, our free-agent pursuits and whom we ultimately reel in. We've got a great ownership group. We've got a very attractive franchise. It's a great place to play, a great town, a great ballpark, great Spring Training. We're just going to go block by block, build this franchise up and make it as big of a player as we possibly can.¡±
Last February¡¯s trade for Burnes was seen as a coup for the Orioles despite the fact that the former National League Cy Young winner was under control for only one season. With a group anchored by Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman and youngsters Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday on the way, the addition of Burnes gave Baltimore the ace it had been lacking.
It seemed like a familiar blueprint.
When the Cubs embarked on a rebuild in the early 2010s, they formed a nucleus with players such as Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Javier B¨¢ez, then supplemented it with the free-agent signings of Jon Lester and John Lackey.
The Astros¡¯ rebuild had been sparked by core players Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and George Springer and the emergence of 2015 AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, but it was the August ¡®17 trade for former MVP and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander that put Houston over the top.
The hope was that Burnes¡¯ arrival would be the final piece of the puzzle for the Orioles, but following their return to the postseason -- and another disappointing finish -- the right-hander¡¯s stint with the club was over.
Now the Orioles are moving forward without a bona fide ace but with the belief that their team -- which won 101 games in 2023 without a true No. 1 starter -- is deep enough and well-equipped to contend in one of baseball¡¯s most competitive divisions.
¡°We'll take a look at that every time the markets come up, whether it¡¯s the Deadline in the summer or free agency in the winter,¡± Elias said. ¡°We¡¯ll look at the roster, look at the whole picture of the organization and target who we're going to target. I don't think [adding an ace] needs to be a one-time, one-way thing.¡±
Rutschman reached his first year of arbitration this offseason, while Henderson and lefty Grayson Rodriguez will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter. Cowser, Westburg and Holliday are still at least two years away from that point, giving the Orioles a multi-year window with their core.
The club¡¯s two Top 100 prospects, catcher/first baseman Samuel Basallo (No. 13) and first baseman/third baseman Coby Mayo (No. 14) were both sent down Tuesday and appear to be currently blocked at the big league level. The calls to use one or both to acquire a big arm may be filling up the airwaves on local sports radio, but Elias views both players as integral parts of the Orioles¡¯ future.
¡°We don't want to mortgage future seasons too heavily; it's all a balancing act,¡± Elias said. ¡°I think we're in a very different mode as a franchise; we're out of the rebuild. We¡¯ve been in the playoffs two years in a row and we¡¯ve been the winningest team in the American League the last two years [combined], but we've had playoff frustrations, and this group feels that.
¡°We're not going to be able to do everything that we want every single year, but we're going to do everything in our power to keep our franchise in a competitive playoff state in the American League East for as long as we possibly can.¡±